Summary of Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hong Kong Exchanges (0388.HK) - **Market Capitalization**: HK$537.1 billion / $69.1 billion - **Current Price**: HK$423.60 - **Target Price**: HK$562.00 - **Upside Potential**: 32.7% Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Earnings**: Earnings exceeded expectations, driven by better-than-expected investment income - **Core Profits**: Grew by +101% year-over-year, supported by a +141% year-over-year increase in cash Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [2][20] - **Revised EPS Estimates**: FY25E/26E/27E/28E EPS revised up by +5%/+4%/+4%/+5% [2][20] - **Forward P/E Ratio**: Approximately 30X, below mid-cycle P/E of ~35X [2] Revenue and Growth Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25E: HK$28,682.1 million - FY26E: HK$29,784.9 million - FY27E: HK$31,627.6 million [5][20] - **Total Revenue Growth**: Projected at 28.2% for FY25E, followed by 3.8% and 6.2% for FY26E and FY27E respectively [12] - **EPS Growth**: Expected to be 32.8% for FY25E, with subsequent growth rates of 3.1% and 6.0% for FY26E and FY27E [12] Key Drivers for Share Price Re-rating 1. **Consensus Upward Revisions**: Anticipated increases in ADT estimates [2] 2. **P/E Premium Expansion**: Potential for HKEX's P/E to expand relative to Hang Seng Index (HSI) and HSTECH index [2] 3. **Growth of HK-listed Companies**: Expected acceleration in growth rates for companies listed in Hong Kong [2] Important Financial Ratios - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Projected at 31.0% for FY25E [11] - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to decrease from 3.5% in FY24 to 2.9% in FY25E [11] - **Net Margin**: Anticipated to be 60.4% for FY25E [12] Income Statement Insights - **Total Revenue**: Expected to reach HK$22,374.0 million in FY24, increasing to HK$28,682.1 million in FY25E [15] - **Investment Income**: Operating investment income projected at HK$4,829.2 million for FY25E [15] - **Net Income**: Forecasted net income of HK$17,325.3 million for FY25E [15] Balance Sheet Highlights - **Total Assets**: Expected to grow from HK$381,629.0 million in FY24 to HK$477,451.4 million in FY27E [16] - **Total Liabilities**: Projected to increase from HK$327,222.0 million in FY24 to HK$397,736.5 million in FY27E [18] Conclusion - The company is positioned for significant growth driven by strong earnings performance, favorable market conditions, and strategic revisions in revenue and EPS forecasts. The investment thesis remains positive with a Buy rating supported by a substantial upside potential in share price.

Core Viewpoint - UBS analyst Jay Sole believes Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US) is "significantly undervalued," with a potential stock price increase of approximately 53% [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, highlighting that the performance of Hoka and UGG brands is expected to exceed expectations, allowing investors to recognize Deckers Outdoor's potential for high single-digit to low double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth [1] Market Expectations - The market perceives Deckers Outdoor's guidance for Q2 FY2026 as conservative, with HOKA sales growth projected at 11%, which is 200 basis points below market expectations [2] - UBS argues that the company's previous higher growth statements were based on "excluding tariff impacts" rather than formal guidance, suggesting an upward revision in growth expectations when adjusted for tariffs [2] - Historically, Deckers Outdoor's final annual EPS has averaged about 17% higher than its Q2 guidance midpoint over the past four years, indicating potential for exceeding current forecasts [2] Short-term Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, Deckers Outdoor reported a revenue increase of 9.1% to $1.4931 billion, with EPS of $1.82, surpassing market expectations by $0.21 [3] - The gross margin was 56.2%, exceeding market expectations by approximately 200 basis points, while operating margin stood at 22.8% [3] - HOKA brand sales grew by 11.1%, and UGG brand sales increased by 10.1% [3] - The company accelerated its share repurchase program to $282 million in Q2, up from $183 million in Q1, indicating potential for EPS upside [3] Mid-term Growth Drivers - UBS anticipates HOKA's direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales will return to low double-digit growth by FY2027, driven by expansion in training shoes, lifestyle products, and international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The increase in high-margin DTC business and scale effects for HOKA are expected to push EBITDA margins close to 23% by FY2030, although some gains may be offset by tariff pressures [4] - The discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests that the market currently implies a low single-digit CAGR for EPS over the next five years, while UBS estimates it to be around 9%, indicating valuation upside potential [4] Various Scenarios and Target Prices - Base case scenario: Target price of $157, with a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 9%, recovery in HOKA's U.S. DTC and lifestyle business, and gradual tariff reductions [5] - Optimistic scenario: Target price of $239, assuming faster expansion of HOKA DTC, UGG evolving into a year-round brand, and an operating margin of about 25.5% by FY2030 [6] - Pessimistic scenario: Target price of $48, considering weak U.S. consumer spending, slower market share growth for HOKA, increased promotional activity, and a contraction in operating margins [6]

Core Insights - OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) shares reached a 52-week high of $60.08, with a 47.8% increase over the past three months, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 Index [1][8] - The company's revenue has shown a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%, driven by growth in net interest income [4] - OneMain Holdings has a trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) of 19.30%, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.11% [11][12] Revenue Growth - The company aims to enhance margins by reducing Back Book over time and has strengthened its auto finance capabilities through the acquisition of Foursight [5] - OneMain Holdings is expected to continue top-line growth due to its diversified product base and efforts to expand credit card and auto finance businesses [4][5] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, OneMain Holdings had total debt of $22.2 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion, indicating a decent balance sheet position [9] - The company has a share repurchase program worth $1 billion, with $609.8 million remaining as of March 31, 2025 [11] Expense Trends - Total other expenses have seen a CAGR of 3% over the last five years, primarily due to rising salaries and benefits [15] - Elevated expenses are expected to persist as the company invests in new products and capabilities [16] Asset Quality Concerns - Provision for finance receivable losses has a CAGR of 9.1% over the past five years, indicating underwriting concerns [19] - The allowance ratio has consistently increased, suggesting challenges in asset quality that may hinder growth [21] Valuation Metrics - OMF stock has a P/E (F1) ratio of 9.68, below the industry average of 11.72, indicating it may be undervalued [22] - Despite the attractive valuation, analysts have revised earnings estimates lower for 2025 and 2026, reflecting concerns over growth potential [25]