Okay, let's uh let's keep doing this, Steve. It's it's pretty interesting. For more on all this data, I want to bring in uh Hyundai Yuba Yuva, uh senior US economist at BFA Securities.You're sitting there with Steve. What do you what do you what do you think of what you just heard. >> I think this is a very very impressive GDP report.As Steve correctly pointed out, 8% essentially nominal GDP growth. Consumer spending really beat expectations. This is pretty unusual.I mean we had the monthly data for July, A ...

18 December 2025 | 11:07AM EST Economics Research GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vickie Chang +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LL ...

the unemployment rate ticking up for a fourth straight month to 4.6%. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, Alian's chief economic advisor. And Muhammad, the listen, I'm having a little bit of trouble with this jobs report.I don't know about you, just in terms of getting that clear picture of what is really going on. >> So, we should really look through this report. >> Okay.>> There are so many distortions and I think Sher Pal was absolutely right when he said we shouldn't take anything out of it. But if you pu ...

talk more about the data today and the market. Joining us today is Ed Yardenni, president of Yardeni Research, who joins us here at Post9. Happy holidays, Ed.Good to see you. Can you bundle all this data into a couple of phrases. >> Yeah, I think the economy in terms of uh final demand, GDP growth is still quite good.Labor market is funky with a lot of uh different uh things going on in that marketplace. uh but the conclusion is productivity must be extremely strong and uh that's good. I mean that actually ...

Right now, we want to get over to Steve Leeman. He is at the Chicago Fed Economic Outlook Symposium this week with bank president Austin Goulsby. Steve, take it away.>> Hey, good morning, Becky, and thank you. Just before I go, um I start here. Um Jeff Schmidt, the Kansas City Fed president, another dissenter out with a statement at this hour saying the reason he desented, inflation is too high, the economy showed continuing momentum, and the labor market he says is largely imbalanced.But we could talk abou ...

Richard Clar is here, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and global ep e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e economic adviser at PINCO. Thanks Rich for coming in. Um yeah, glad to be here.>> And I was going to start with a half empty half full analysis. So if if JPAL on the one hand says man um we look at at what's going on and we're worried about inflation and we're worried about uh the jobs market. This is a really complicated time for monetary policy.That's the half empty. the half full is, you ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House is considering Kevin Hasset as the front runner to replace Jay Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, amid ongoing discussions about interest rate cuts and economic growth strategies [2][3][5]. Economic Outlook - Interest rates are currently up, but there is an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the upcoming December meeting [5]. - The government shutdown has negatively impacted economic data, but a rebound is expected in the first quarter of the following year [7][8]. - GDP growth has been strong, with growth rates in the fours for the last two quarters, indicating a potential for continued economic expansion [7]. Artificial Intelligence Impact - Concerns are emerging about job losses due to AI efficiencies, although new job creation is anticipated [9][10]. - AI is expected to drive a 4% productivity increase next year, allowing firms to meet demand without significantly increasing hiring [12][14]. - Real wage growth is reportedly high, reversing previous declines, and contributing to increased consumer spending power [14][40]. Federal Reserve Strategy - The Federal Reserve is advised to cautiously reduce interest rates to support economic growth, especially in light of productivity gains from AI [7][20]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1990s productivity boom, suggesting that the current AI-driven productivity surge could lead to similar economic growth without inflationary pressures [21][22]. Tariff and Trade Policy - The Supreme Court is expected to make a decision regarding President Trump's tariffs, which have generated significant revenue but also raised concerns about potential economic disruptions [26][34]. - Tariff revenues have reached approximately $280 billion annually, with expectations of further increases as domestic production rises [52][54]. Housing and Affordability Initiatives - The administration is focused on making housing more affordable and is working on new initiatives to address affordability challenges faced by families [39][43]. - The introduction of "Trump accounts" for newborns aims to instill financial literacy and provide a financial foundation for future generations [48][50]. Healthcare and Drug Pricing - The administration is advocating for policies to lower prescription drug prices and improve healthcare affordability, building on previous successes in reducing drug costs [60][62].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI)** on productivity growth and the broader economic landscape. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Adoption Rate of AI**: The adoption rate of generative AI is estimated to be approximately **double** that of the mass market exposure of the internet or personal computers, indicating a rapid integration into the economy [1][5] 2. **Productivity Growth Estimates**: Research from the OECD suggests that the sustained impact of AI on productivity growth could range from **0.1 percentage points (pp)** per year to as high as **3.5 pp** annually over a decade [1][6] 3. **Current Productivity Performance**: Despite the potential of AI, actual productivity performance has been described as **lackluster**, with estimates indicating that productivity growth in the US has been around **1.6%** annualized since 2004 [1][14] 4. **Shift from Labor Augmentation to Replacement**: There is a notable shift in AI's role from augmenting labor to replacing it, as evidenced by **48,414 layoffs** attributed to AI replacements reported by Challenger, Gray, and Christmas [2][4] 5. **Regime Shifts in Productivity Growth**: Historical data indicates that US productivity growth tends to move in regimes, with two regimes of approximately **1.5%** and two of around **3%** over the last 75 years. The current trend suggests a potential shift towards higher productivity growth [3][12] 6. **Probability of Regime Change**: The probability of remaining in a low productivity growth regime has decreased to around **80%**, with estimates suggesting a **20%** chance of shifting to a high productivity growth regime [9][10] 7. **Investment and Capital Intensity**: There are early signs of increased capital deepening contributing to productivity growth, similar to patterns observed in the **1990s** [11][12] 8. **Demographic and Investment Concerns**: While there are positive signs for productivity growth, concerns remain regarding demographics and the potential slowdown in investment, which could impact future productivity gains [13][14] Additional Important Insights - **Policy Impacts**: Factors such as immigration, patents, and trade policies also play a significant role in influencing productivity growth [11] - **Historical Context**: The productivity gains observed in the early 2000s were not halted by the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble, suggesting resilience in productivity growth despite economic shocks [13] - **Future Projections**: There is an expectation that structural US productivity growth could shift up by **1 to 1.5 pp** in the coming years, driven by the ongoing integration of AI and other technological advancements [10][12] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the transformative potential of AI on productivity and the economic landscape while acknowledging the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.

The Bank of Canada said the country's anemic productivity growth is a “systemic” problem, doubling down on its message to governments and businesses to urgently address the issue. https://t.co/dSnnuGPclH ...

Market Performance & Outlook - The S&P 500 is up 36% from the April 8th lows and 16% year-to-date [2] - The economy is growing at 4% and productivity growth is running up 3% [2][3] - Earnings are growing 123%, revenues are growing 8%, both exceeding historical averages of 5% [4] - Fourth quarter growth is expected to be 8-12% cumulatively, suggesting a positive outlook [5] - The market has strong tailwinds, including accommodative global central banks and disinflationary trends [6] Technology Sector & AI - Technology is a key driver of the market, but investors are uncertain about the broadening out of the AI trade [8][12] - Mega-cap technology stocks experienced significant market cap fluctuations, adding $618 billion after losing $800 billion the previous week [10] - The market is differentiating between companies with explicable AI capex strategies and those with less clear paybacks [16] Investment Strategies & Considerations - Investors should consider whether they are overweight in technology and assess the potential for technology positions to be a source of liquidity in 2026 [9] - It's important to use stops and ride the best stocks in the market during the year-end meltup period [21] - There are opportunities beyond AI, with various stocks in uptrends and great technical setups, including commodities and energy stocks [19][20]