Productivity Growth

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How the Economic Machine Works Part 2
Principles by Ray Dalio· 2025-08-26 13:21
In a transaction, you have to give something in order to get something. And how much you get depends on how much you produce. Over time, we learn.And that accumulated knowledge raises our living standards. We call this productivity growth. Those who are inventive and hardworking raise their productivity and their living standards faster than those who are complacent and lazy.But that isn't necessarily true over the short run. Productivity matters most in the long run, but credit matters most in the short ru ...
Investors should step into the markets 'in a prudent way', says JPMorgan's Elyse Ausenbaugh
CNBC Television· 2025-07-24 11:04
All right, the futures mixed in the pre-market, but as we told you, the S&P and the NASDAQ both coming off record closes. And joining us right now to talk about the markets is Alise Azenba. She is the head of investment strategy at JP Morgan Wealth Management.And Ely, there have been all these questions with the rebound we've seen in the markets since April. People were saying, "Hey, there are pretty pretty high expectations heading into earnings that people want to see this." You've got a really interestin ...
BARCLAYS:从宏观到市场-人工智能将如何塑造资产格局
2025-05-06 11:35
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on various asset classes including equities, bonds, and currencies, with a focus on the US and China competition in AI adoption [1][10][49]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Non-linear Adoption of Technology**: The adoption of new technologies is characterized by a slow initial phase followed by rapid growth, eventually leading to diminishing returns [3][12][13]. - **Historical Technological Waves**: The report identifies three significant technological waves: the durable goods revolution (1950s), the rise of the internet (1990s), and the data boom (2010s), each contributing to economic growth and productivity [4][19]. - **Impact on Asset Prices**: Economic gains from technological advancements typically result in stronger equity performance, higher yields, and a stronger US dollar [9][10][34]. - **US vs. China in AI**: The future strength of the US dollar will largely depend on which country leads in AI technology, with implications for global economic dynamics [10][49]. - **Investment Trends**: Technological advancements lead to increased fixed asset investment, with historical data showing approximately 4 percentage points higher investment growth during periods of technological innovation [21][28]. - **Income Distribution Changes**: Technological progress tends to favor capital over labor, leading to increased income inequality, but also enhancing the US's position in global financial markets [29][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Diffusion of Technology**: The report highlights that technological advancements in one country can lead to global benefits, but the pace of adoption varies significantly between nations [42][44]. - **AI's Role in Economic Growth**: AI is expected to enhance productivity, which could lead to higher real interest rate expectations and influence monetary policy [66][70]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report discusses how AI could lower term premiums on bonds by improving fiscal outcomes and reducing inflation risks [84][91]. - **Volatility and Market Structure**: AI advancements are likely to enhance market efficiency, reduce volatility, and improve the accuracy of forecasts in financial markets [101][107]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of AI and other technological advancements on economic structures, asset prices, and global financial dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China competition in AI technology. The implications for investors include a focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from these advancements, as well as an understanding of the broader economic shifts that may occur as a result of these technologies.