Market Overview - European stocks are sharply lower amid a global sell-off, with investors anticipating economic data from the U.S. following the end of the government shutdown [1] - Major tech companies are facing renewed selling pressure due to concerns over inflated AI valuations, while Bitcoin has lost all its gains for the year, indicating a potential deeper downturn [1][2] - The European Commission has upgraded its growth forecast for 2025 but cautions that government deficits are expected to rise, potentially impacting investor confidence, particularly in the tech sector [1] Technology Sector - The market is experiencing a significant shift from aggressive buying to intense selling, particularly in tech stocks, with Nvidia's upcoming earnings report being closely watched [1] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has seen a decline of approximately 2.5%, while Nvidia remains up a couple of percent over the past month, indicating a mixed sentiment in the tech sector [1] - Concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector are prevalent, with references to the dotcom boom highlighting potential irrationality in current market behavior [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has entered a deep bear market, down nearly 30%, with significant leverage issues exacerbating the situation [1][2] - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by a high number of cryptocurrencies, exceeding 18,000, which adds complexity to market dynamics [2] - Institutional support and regulatory backing have not shielded Bitcoin from market volatility, raising questions about its role as a diversifier from fiat currencies [1][2] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve is experiencing conflicting views among officials regarding potential rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate cuts while others suggest a more cautious approach [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed may pause in the first half of the next year [2][3] - The Supreme Court's upcoming decisions on tariffs could introduce additional volatility in the markets, particularly affecting risk assets [3][4] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market correction may be a natural profit-taking phase rather than a major catalyst for a downturn [2] - Predictions indicate that U.S. equities are overvalued, with expectations of another correction next year, while emerging markets like India and Brazil may present better investment opportunities [3] - The corporate bond market is adjusting to increased supply, with spreads needing to widen slightly to attract institutional investment [3]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing poor breadth, with concerns about high valuations, particularly in tech and AI-related stocks [2][4] - Liquidity is decreasing in the market, contributing to profit-taking across various sectors, especially in technology [2][3] Valuation Metrics - The S&P 500 is trading at 23 times forward earnings estimates, above its 5-year average of 20 times, while the NASDAQ 100 is at 28 times compared to 19 times in 2022 [6] - An equal-weighted S&P 500 index is trading at a more than 25% discount to the standard S&P 500 index, indicating potential for rotation if market conditions change [7] Sector Performance - Consumer cyclicals are under scrutiny, with the potential for them to benefit from market rotation, but they need to demonstrate stronger performance [8] - Industrial sectors have shown flat performance over the past 10 to 11 months, indicating a lack of clear leadership in the market [9] Earnings Reports - Amgen reported a 12% growth in product sales, driven by a 14% increase in volume, although offset by a 4% decrease in net selling price [11] - The company raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance, reflecting positive performance despite initial stock fluctuations [11] Small Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks have not participated in the recent tech-driven market rally and are more exposed to temporary disruptions from business shutdowns [12][14] - Since October, larger market-cap stocks have outperformed smaller-cap stocks across most sectors, indicating a divergence in performance based on market capitalization [14]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing mixed results, with Amazon reaching an all-time high while futures indicate pressure [1] - There has been a recent weakness in market breadth, leading to some profit-taking [2] - Financial stocks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America saw a slight recovery after earlier sell-offs [3] Earnings Reports Palantir - Palantir reported revenue of $1.18 billion, exceeding the expected $1.09 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 63% [6] - Adjusted earnings per share were 21 cents, surpassing the anticipated 17 cents, and the outlook for free cash flow has improved [7] - Despite the strong report, the stock is considered expensive, and there is potential for a sell-off following the news [8][10] Pfizer - Pfizer's revenue came in at $16.65 billion, slightly above the expected $16.58 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents, exceeding the forecast of 63 cents [14] - The company reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2025 and raised its EPS guidance, while also taking a one-time charge of $1.35 billion for R&D expenses [15][17] - Pfizer is facing challenges due to declining COVID-19 sales and is seeking new growth opportunities, particularly in the GLP-1 space [18][19] Market Drivers - Upcoming earnings reports, particularly from AMD, are expected to influence market direction [20] - The S&P 500 is projected to have an implied move of around 1.2% to 1.25%, indicating anticipated volatility [22] - The high-yield debt market is seen as a key signal for potential equity gains [22]

Market Performance - Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced slight gains, with Sensex up by 39.78 points (0.05%) to 83,978.49 and Nifty up by 41.25 points (0.16%) to 25,763.35, ending a two-day decline [1][3][4] - Sensex reached a high of 84,127 and a low of 83,609.54 during the trading session [4] Sector Performance - Mahindra & Mahindra was the top gainer among Sensex firms, increasing by 1.7% following positive October sales data, while Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles rose by 1.69% [4] - Other notable gainers included State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, and Kotak Mahindra Bank [5] - Conversely, Maruti Suzuki saw the largest decline, dropping by 3.37%, with ITC, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Electronics, and Titan also among the major laggards [5] Institutional Activity - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹6,769.34 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth ₹7,068.44 crore [5] Global Market Context - In Asian markets, indices such as South Korea's Kospi, Shanghai's SSE Composite, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed positively [6] - Global oil prices saw a minor decrease, with Brent crude falling by 0.14% to $64.71 per barrel [6]

Core Insights - Maestria Partners LLC sold approximately 293,146 shares of Magnite, valued at an estimated $6.92 million, as disclosed in a SEC filing on October 31, 2025 [1][2] - Following the sale, Maestria holds about 1.14 million shares of Magnite, valued at $24.85 million, representing 7.86% of its $316.35 million U.S. equity portfolio [2][3] Company Overview - Magnite, Inc. is a leading sell-side advertising technology provider, enabling publishers to monetize digital inventory across various channels [5][6] - The company operates an independent advertising platform for digital media publishers, generating revenue by facilitating digital advertising transactions [6] Financial Metrics - As of October 30, 2025, Magnite's share price was $17.31, with a market capitalization of $2.58 billion [4] - The company reported a revenue of $685.07 million and a net income of $43.13 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] Performance Analysis - Magnite shares have increased by 141% over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 21.30 percentage points [3][9] - The stock reached a 52-week high of $26.52 during Q3 2025, but has since declined approximately 33% following an antitrust ruling favoring Google [9][10]

Imagine [Music] [Applause] this scenario. You open your portfolio and it looks like you just won the lottery. You're on top of the world.You're looking for what color Ferrari you want. And then boom, two weeks later, you look at your portfolio and you're telling your family, "Pizza night is canled." That roller coaster ride, it's not really about the market. It's not about your skills. It's about your emotions.And that's the ride I want to talk to you all today about. Now, let me pause for just a second. I ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has retreated 7.6% this week after a significant rally, attributed to technical factors rather than fundamental changes in the market [1][2][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices have decreased 7.6% since Monday, with a notable 63% rally year-to-date prior to this decline [1]. - The recent drop is seen as a correction after an extended period of price increases [2][4]. Market Sentiment - Investors have been engaging in the "debasement trade," using gold as a hedge against a declining US dollar due to concerns over government spending and inflation [1]. - The current market behavior around gold has been described as a "momentum trade" that has become overextended [4]. Technical Analysis - The momentum indicator for gold has deviated significantly from historical norms, suggesting that the recent price surge may have been excessive [2]. - Profit-taking has been triggered by the recent price movements, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4]. Investor Behavior - There are concerns about a potential bubble in gold, with reports of frenzied buying behavior among investors [5]. - Anecdotal evidence suggests high demand for physical gold, with long lines at dealers indicating a crowded trade [5][6]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent pullback, some analysts believe that gold prices could continue to rise, with projections suggesting a potential increase to $4,700, representing a 15% upside from current levels [6].

Market Cycles & Trading Strategy - The industry suggests shifting focus to shorter, 4-month cycles instead of 4-year cycles to enhance trading intentionality and selection of outperformers [1] - The industry observes that even within a 4-year cycle, altcoins typically exhibit aggressive outperformance only for 3-4 months [1] - The industry emphasizes the importance of regular profit-taking into momentum to avoid bagholding, highlighting Bitcoin as the only non-disruptable tech in crypto [1] Historical Performance & Future Trends - The industry notes specific altcoins and sectors that have outperformed in the past, such as Injective, CFX, and AI-related projects from January 2023 to March 2023, and Solana, TAO, HNT, and memecoins like BONK/WIF from October 2023 to March 2024 [1] - The industry anticipates potential outperformers from August 2024 to January 2025, including SUI, XRP, Dinos, SPX, and "fartcoin" [1] - The industry speculates on a potential "hype" cycle starting in April 2025 [1] Current Market Analysis & Uncertainties - The industry acknowledges uncertainty regarding current trend leaders, pointing to pumpdotfun and Binance cartels as potential influences [1] - The industry anticipates numerous new launches in the coming months, making it challenging to identify leading memecoins [1]

Company Insights - Intel is experiencing significant gains following speculation that Apple may be interested in acquiring or investing in the company [2] - The stock has risen approximately 50% over six to seven trading sessions, indicating a strong upward movement [3] - There is a suggestion that a pullback may be necessary before making further investments in Intel, as the current market conditions are challenging for new investments [2][3] Market Analysis - The current market appears to be undergoing profit-taking, with a potential resistance level at $165 that, if broken, could signal further upward movement [1] - The possibility of Intel reaching the $70 level is mentioned, reflecting on its historical performance as a leading company in the tech sector [2] - Buying options for future dates is recommended as a strategy to manage risk, rather than purchasing the stock outright at its current elevated price [3]

Posted this almost a year ago when we broke ATH and entered price discovery, good to review.Calling top is hard, you are much better off having a clear plan that you lay out to make sure you are taking profits along the way and getting out when the chart tells you too.IMO $98k is the key level for me on the weekly.It's a lot easier to pick a level where your bullishness is invalidated than it is to pick where the top will form.If you longed BTC at $25k and sold it all at $100k I think most people would cons ...