Core Insights - The report discusses the Bank of England's Asset Purchase Facility (APF) operations for Q3 2025, including cash flow dynamics with HM Treasury and estimated savings from government debt issuance due to quantitative easing [1][7][20] Gilt Purchases and Sales - The average daily value of gilts lent by the APF to the Debt Management Office (DMO) was £8.0 billion during Q3 2025 [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the stock of gilts held in the APF by £70 billion from October 2025 to September 2026, with a specific sales strategy for different maturity sectors [4][14] - As of September 24, 2025, the stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes was £558 billion, following a reduction of £3.6 billion from sales and £28.3 billion from maturities during Q3 2025 [5] Cash Flow Dynamics - The APF generated positive net cash flows to HM Treasury, peaking at £123.9 billion by the end of September 2022 [7] - Regular transfers from HM Treasury to the APF began in October 2022, with ongoing quarterly payments [8] - Future cash flows are uncertain and sensitive to changes in the Bank Rate, which affects interest payments and gilt sale prices [10][11] Projections and Scenarios - Illustrative projections indicate that cumulative cash flows could fall between -£60 billion and -£120 billion, with fiscal savings from lower government debt issuance costs estimated at £50 billion to £125 billion [13][20] - The stock of gilts is expected to reduce by £70 billion annually, potentially leading to full unwinding by the end of 2031 [23] - Different scenarios for the pace of unwind show varying impacts on net present value (NPV), with cumulative cash flows projected to decline significantly under various assumptions [17][18]

Core Insights - Bearish sentiment is increasing due to a significant decline in Bitcoin's price, yet some cryptocurrency influencers believe in the potential for a price reversal driven by global liquidity and Federal Reserve actions [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity and Government Shutdown - The downturn in the market is primarily attributed to tightening liquidity, linked to the Federal Reserve's aggressive Quantitative Tightening and the ongoing US government shutdown [2][3] - The government shutdown has led to a significant liquidity squeeze as the Treasury General Account (TGA) accumulates funds without spending, adversely affecting markets, particularly cryptocurrencies [3] Group 2: Predictions and Future Actions - The current liquidity situation is deemed unsustainable, with expectations that the government will spend between $250 billion to $350 billion once the shutdown concludes, leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet [4] - Arthur Hayes anticipates that the Fed will implement a stealth approach to Quantitative Easing by utilizing the Standing Repo Facility to alleviate market liquidity strains without formally announcing QE [5] Group 3: Year-End Market Forecasts - Despite short-term volatility and geopolitical tensions, some analysts maintain aggressive year-end targets, with projections of the S&P 500 reaching $7,500, Bitcoin hitting $200,000, and Ethereum reaching $7,000 [6][7] - Tom Lee highlights Ethereum's strong fundamentals, including increasing stablecoin volume and app revenue, as a key factor for a potential crypto rally by year-end [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,376, having experienced a decline from recent highs of $111,190 and $111,250 over the weekend [1] - Despite significant global liquidity increases, including $125 billion injected by the US Federal Reserve and China's M2 money supply reaching $47 trillion, Bitcoin's price has not responded positively [2][5] Group 1: Liquidity Dynamics - The relationship between liquidity and Bitcoin prices is becoming increasingly complex, with the notion that expanding liquidity will automatically lead to higher Bitcoin prices being deemed simplistic [3] - The recent liquidity injections by the Fed are aimed at stabilizing short-term funding markets rather than stimulating broader risk-taking, which affects market liquidity that typically flows into assets like Bitcoin [4] Group 2: China’s Monetary Expansion - China's M2 money supply has reached approximately $47.1 trillion, more than double that of the US, which stands at around $22.2 trillion, highlighting a significant liquidity gap [5][6] - This unprecedented gap in liquidity dynamics reflects China's long-term credit expansion strategy focused on infrastructure and exports rather than speculative markets [6]

Liquidity & Monetary Policy - End of Quantitative Tightening (QT), industry anticipates the timing of Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - Discussion of the current REPO crisis and its implications [1] - Examination of liquidity issues and associated risks for banks [1] - Addressing misinformation surrounding Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Market Impact - Analysis of the implications for Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks [1]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently at their lowest in a year at 6.19%, but have remained above 6% for the past three years, causing frustration among potential homebuyers [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its balance sheet, significantly influence mortgage rates, even though it does not set them directly [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new target for the benchmark Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.75% and 4.00% effective October 29 [2] - The Fed has implemented its second quarter-point interest rate cut of 2025 to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [3] - The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.59 trillion, representing about 22% of U.S. nominal GDP as of October 22 [4] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening and Easing - During Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling or allowing bonds to mature, which removes money from the system [7] - Conversely, during Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed buys bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject money into the economy, typically lowering long-term rates [7] - The Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2022, which has pressured rates higher and elevated borrowing costs, including mortgages [8]

Popular market analyst Ted Pillows took to X to share insights on what the future holds for altcoins. His analysis comes as the Federal Reserve plots an end to its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. He highlighted an incident from six years ago when altcoins’ reliance on direct liquidity was quite obvious. Historical Pattern Says QE Supports Altcoin Rally On October 30, Ted Pillows shared insights on the future of altcoins as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to conclude its quantitative tightening ...

Market Outlook - Short-term market volatility is expected, potentially impacting leveraged traders [1][2] - Anticipate significant upside potential towards the end of the year and into Q1, contingent on the resumption of data releases following the shutdown [2] - The market is expected to be choppy in the coming weeks [2] Monetary Policy - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is projected to end on December 1st, signaling a potential return to quantitative easing [1][2] - A rate cut in December is not guaranteed and depends on the availability of economic data [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling off, which could be bullish for future rate cuts [2] Investment Strategy - Buy dips in the market [3] - Hold investments until mid next year, specifically when signals indicate the end of rate cuts [3]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The debasement trade, where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold appreciate against depreciating fiat currencies, is becoming mainstream as institutions recognize it [1][3] - Investors should own assets that will appreciate in value as the prices of goods are inflating [8] - Gold has seen a spike due to central bank buying as they seek assets that cannot be debased [14] - Bitcoin benefits from liquidity as cheaper dollars require more of them to buy Bitcoin [18] - Bitcoin is entering a tremendous institutional adoption phase and is viewed as digital gold [21] Macroeconomic Factors & Risks - The US is running over $2 trillion deficits annually, with debt exploding to over $38 trillion this year [4] - The US faces a debt spiral with three choices: cutting spending, raising taxes, or defaulting (hard or soft) [6][7][8] - The Fed is lowering rates into a period of structural inflation, fearing a recession and potential explosion of deficits to $3-4 trillion [8] - Credit agencies have downgraded US debt, indicating structural problems [8] - The market is concerned that the Fed will have to stop QT (Quantitative Tightening) and eventually start QE (Quantitative Easing) due to decreasing bank reserves [8][9] Bitcoin Outlook - Bitcoin is expected to outperform gold in the future and take market share away from it [22] - Bitcoin could fall with a market drawdown, as it is still treated as a risk asset [27] - Bitcoin is expected to snap back strongly after a market drawdown, especially with an injection of liquidity [29] - In the next 5-7 years, Bitcoin could reach $1 million, with higher prices depending on the rate of currency debasement and institutional adoption [39]

Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The market anticipates a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut by the FOMC, but this is already factored into prices [1] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) does not equate to the start of Quantitative Easing (QE), implying continued tight monetary conditions [1] - Liquidity is diminishing, and despite calls for new liquidity injections, the FED is unlikely to initiate QE soon, given inflation is 50% above the target, unless a major crisis occurs [1] - The FED has historically only printed money during crises, and a crisis is currently brewing in the REPO market [2] - Repo facilities are strained, overnight funding is collapsing, and liquidity stress is spreading throughout the system, indicating a very low amount of available cash [2] Market Outlook - The author maintains a short position on BTC and Stocks, expecting no sustainable strength [1][2] - The author's short orders for BTC are stacked between 116,700–117,200, primarily in USDT [2] - The expectation is that euphoria will fade, liquidity will vanish, and the system will crack, prompting the Fed to print again [2]

Does this mean. This is the list. Numbers haven't changed.Unlike the hurricane, where the five names had been leaked before. And so this is something that the markets have been observing for a couple of weeks. So I don't think it's going to have a whole lot of impact on people's thinking at the moment until we get much closer.Besson said he's going to hold another round of interviews, and that may lead to some further leaks about who he likes or doesn't like. And he suggested that after Thanksgiving he woul ...