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REITs二级市场遇冷,但战配收益可期:REITs系列报告
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-10-23 00:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary market of REITs has cooled down, with trading volume and turnover rate hitting lows since early 2024 after peaking in August. However, strategic placement yields are promising [2][3]. - Data center REITs are relatively resilient, while other sectors have performed poorly in the past month. Only a small number of projects have achieved positive returns [2][4]. - The issuance scale of REITs in the next year is expected to be between 50 - 75 billion yuan, with 25 - 35 issues. Other strategic investors are expected to be allocated 14 - 30.7 billion yuan through strategic placement [2][13][15]. - Based on historical performance after strategic placement lock - up expiration, the average annualized return of 45 REITs samples is 19.69%. In a pessimistic scenario, the annualized return can reach 8.20%, and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 31.18%. Investors are advised to focus on REITs with an issuance scale of 20 - 40 billion yuan and be cautious about transportation and industrial park REITs with poor underlying asset operations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Recent REITs Market Overview - The trading volume and turnover rate of the REITs market have been shrinking since peaking in August, reaching lows since early 2024. The weekly trading volume from October 6 - 12 was only 702 million yuan, and the turnover rate was only 0.31% [2][3]. - Data center REITs are relatively resilient, with a decline of only - 0.03% in the past month. Other sectors, such as affordable rental housing (- 2.8%), warehousing and logistics (- 1.5%), and transportation (- 2.5%), have performed poorly. Only a small number of projects have achieved positive returns in the past one and three months [2][4]. 3.2 REITs Projects in the Review and Issuance Stages - As of October 15, 2025, there is 1 REIT project under review that has been accepted, 3 projects that have been queried, and 4 projects that have provided feedback. The accepted project is expected to receive the first - round query around the end of October, the queried projects are expected to enter the feedback stage in 2 - 3 months, and the projects that have provided feedback are expected to be approved within 1 month if there are no major corrections [7]. - As of October 15, 2025, there are 3 REIT projects in the issuance stage. Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT and CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT ended their fundraising on October 14 but have not been listed, with expected issuance scales of 1.584 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan respectively. Huaxia Anbo Warehousing and Logistics REIT was registered and became effective on September 23, 2025. It is expected that 3 - 4 new REIT projects will be launched by the end of the year [8]. - As of October 15, 2025, there are 12 REIT projects for expansion, new acquisitions, or other purposes in the review or approved - to - be - issued stage, which will provide additional market capacity for investors' new - share subscription or strategic placement strategies [9]. 3.3 Potential of REITs Strategic Placement Strategy 3.3.1 Market Capacity of REITs Strategic Placement Strategy - The REITs market is expected to expand further through asset - mixing expansions and the encouragement of private investment projects. The total issuance scale of REITs has approached 200 billion yuan, and the total market value has exceeded 200 billion yuan. The issuance scale in the next year is expected to be between 50 - 75 billion yuan, with 25 - 35 issues [12][13]. - The average subscription ratio of original equity holders and their affiliated parties for listed REITs is 38.21%. The average ratio of other professional institutional investors is 34.45%. Based on this, it is estimated that other strategic investors will be allocated 14 - 30.7 billion yuan through strategic placement in the next year [14][15]. 3.3.2 Return Calculation of Strategic Placement Strategy - Strategic placement is more suitable for large - scale, long - term funds. The holding - period return rate of strategic placement is affected by factors such as the annualized dividend rate, secondary - market price increase at the time of lock - up expiration, and the annualized cost of capital occupation [16][17]. - As of October 15, 2025, most of the 45 REITs that have been listed for more than a year can achieve a return of over 10% at the time of lock - up expiration, and nearly 80% can achieve positive returns. The average annualized return of all 45 REITs samples is 19.69%. REITs with an issuance scale of 20 - 40 billion yuan can achieve relatively high annualized returns with relatively controllable return fluctuations [18][21].