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中国 - 9 月经济活动数据、第三季度 GDP 及四中全会预览-China_ Preview of September activity data, Q3 GDP and the 4th Plenum
2025-10-16 01:48
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the upcoming release of September activity data, Q3 GDP, and the 4th Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee scheduled for October 20-23, 2023 [1][2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Growth**: - Expected to increase to 5.3% year-on-year (yoy) in September from 5.2% in August, driven by improvements in manufacturing PMIs, exports, and auto output [5][7]. - Auto output growth rose to 17.2% yoy in September from 13.5% in August, while steel production growth declined to +5.8% yoy from +11.5% [5][6]. 2. **Retail Sales Growth**: - Anticipated to moderate to 3.1% yoy in September from 3.4% in August, primarily due to a high base effect [9][7]. - Online sales of white goods remained stable at -7% yoy, while auto retail sales volume growth increased slightly to +6.3% yoy [9]. 3. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Forecasted to remain sluggish at -4.6% yoy in September, an improvement from -6.8% in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in construction and property sectors [5][6]. - Year-to-date FAI growth is expected to be -0.2% yoy [6]. 4. **GDP Growth Forecast**: - Q3 real GDP growth is maintained at 4.8% yoy, a decline from 5.2% in Q2, with sequential growth moderating to 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) [9][10]. 5. **4th Plenary Session Expectations**: - The session is expected to provide insights into the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2026-2030, with no specific numerical targets likely to be mentioned [8][10]. - Market reactions may vary based on the emphasis on consumption versus regulatory control [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the upcoming 4th Plenary Session may not significantly impact the market, but there are two-way risks depending on policy directions [10]. - There is a consensus that China needs to cultivate new growth engines and boost domestic consumption sustainably during the 15th FYP period [14]. - Analysts suggest a potential growth target range of 4-5% for the 15th FYP, with a focus on technology, security, and consumption [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and expectations for the Chinese economy.
Consensus Now At Three Rate Cuts This Year, Money Moving Into Silver - iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META)
Benzinga· 2025-09-16 15:53
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.Money Flowing Into SilverPlease click here for an enlarged chart of iShares Silver Trust SLV.Note the following:The chart of SLV is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.The chart shows silver's breakout above the support zone.The chart shows September is on track to be the fifth consecutive positive month for SLV.The chart shows the move in silver is the biggest run up since 2020.The chart shows the trader magnet in SLV.RSI on the chart shows t ...
Retail sales exceed forecasts despite sinking consumer sentiments
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 15:36
Economic Growth Forecast - The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta upgraded its economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points, predicting a 3.4% annualized gain in GDP during Q3 [3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of economic growth, has remained steady despite rising price pressures, a slowdown in hiring, and an increase in unemployment to 4.3% [3] - Spending surged early in the year due to consumers anticipating price increases from high U.S. tariffs, but this trend has waned since May, leading to a modest slowdown in spending [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales exceeded forecasts in August, rising by 0.6% for the third consecutive month, despite job market weaknesses and declining consumer sentiment [7] - Nine out of 13 categories of goods saw gains, with e-commerce sales increasing by 2% and sales at clothing stores and sporting goods shops rising by 1% and 0.8%, respectively [7] Impact of Tariffs - Import taxes have negatively impacted sales, particularly in categories vulnerable to tariffs, such as sports equipment, electronics, and clothing [5] - One in four small businesses reported that tariffs and rising costs have led them to increase prices, indicating consumer anxiety regarding import taxes fueling price gains [6]
September Fed meeting kicks off in Washington, Trump files $15B lawsuit against the New York Times.
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 14:56
Market Trends & Economic Indicators - US stock futures indicate a higher open, extending record runs, driven by better-than-expected retail sales growth of 061% in August [1] - Bank of America's fund manager survey shows the most bullish sentiment since February, with equity allocations at seven-month highs and cash balances at 39%, below the 4% threshold [3][4] - A record 58% of respondents in the fund manager survey say stocks are overvalued, and 77% expect stagflation [5][6] - August retail sales increased 06% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, with clothing and clothing accessories increasing about 1% and non-store retailers increasing about 2% [8][9][10] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is kicking off its two-day policy meeting, widely expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut [1][2] - The market is focused on the potential for further rate cuts and how the Fed perceives weakness in the labor market juxtaposed with inflation [2][3] Company Specific News - Oracle's shares are extending gains amid news of its involvement in a deal for TikTok [1] - President Trump filed a $15 billion defamation lawsuit against the New York Times, exceeding the newspaper's market capitalization of approximately $96 billion [15][17] - Warner Brothers Discovery shares are taking a hit after TD Cowan downgraded the stock to hold, with a potential bid at $20 per share but a risk of shares hitting $11 to $12 if the bid falls through [17][18] - Disney is acquiring a 2% equity stake in Webtune, with Webtune's shares surging 32% [18][20] AI & Technology - Alphabet reached a record high $3 trillion market cap, reflecting the market's appreciation of the AI opportunity [23] - AI models are improving faster than Moore's Law, potentially adding $5 trillion of economic value by making knowledge workers 10% more productive [30][25] - Microsoft took out 9000 people from their cost structure and are still growing at high or mid-teens growth rate and their cloud business is accelerating [35]
Retail sales up 0.6%, topping forecast for August
Youtube· 2025-09-16 13:07
We are just seconds away from retail sales and import uh prices and the futures uh this morning have moderated a little bit there more than that but who knows how much movement we see for the next u couple of trading sessions maybe there'll be some Rick Santelli standing by at the CME uh in Chicago Rick uh you got the numbers please yes we are waiting our August read of course on retail sales this is the advanced look we'll get a more penciled in look in about a week and a half and the numbers hitting the w ...
Retail sales up 0.6% in August from July even as tariffs hurt jobs and lead to price hikes
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 12:45
NEW YORK (AP) — Shoppers increased their spending at a better-than-expected pace in August from July, helped by back-to-school purchases, even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are starting to hurt the job market and lead to price hikes. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month from July, when sales were up a revised 0.6%, according to the Commerce Department’s report. The performance, announced Tuesday, was also likely helped by the continued efforts by Americans to keep pushing up purchases ahead of expecte ...
FOMC Leads Market Discussions, Near Certain 25bps Rate Cut
Youtube· 2025-09-15 13:30
Kevin Hanks, co-host of Fast Market, live at the CBOE is here and of course the latest with the trade talks between the US and China. It's the fourth meeting in fourth month and um so big news there. Some of your thoughts.Good morning, Kevin. >> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, futures higher to start the week.You've got news out of really all over the place, Nicole. You've got news to start the week in a week that's already going to be enormous as we get to midweek as the Fed is expected to move on interest rat ...
Asia markets set to open lower as investors watch U.S.-China talks in Spain
CNBC· 2025-09-14 23:58
Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed as investors kept an eye on the talks between the U.S. and China in Spain, and awaited a slate of data from Beijing.U.S. and Chinese officials began talks in Madrid Sunday to discuss key national security, economic, and trade issues, including the upcoming deadline to divest Chinese short video app TikTok and U.S. tariffs.Delegations led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with their counterparts, Chinese Vice Premier He ...
Uncertain July CPI Puts Spotlight on Crucial Upcoming Data | Presented by CME Group
Bloomberg Television· 2025-08-14 18:47
Inflation Data Analysis - Headline CPI came in below expectations at 27%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, was higher than anticipated at 31% [1] - Markets focused on the headline CPI number, leading to an equities rally and a drop in 2-year yields [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Weak unemployment data reported on August 1st raised concerns about disinflation [2] - Prior to the CPI release, Fed funds futures priced in an 82% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting [3] - Post CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th FOMC meeting surged past 90%, with markets pricing in 60 basis points of easing by the end of 2025 [3] - PPI data on August 14th and retail sales data on August 15th are expected to provide a clearer picture of the Fed's coming moves [3]
美银:中国观察-尽管第二季度 GDP 数据强劲,但红灯仍在闪烁
美银· 2025-07-16 15:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].