Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovanni Ferrannini +44(20)7051-2589 | giovanni.ferrannini@gs.com Goldman Sachs International 9 February 2026 | 5:06AM GMT Portfolio Strategy Research GOAL POST 10 Questions for multi-asset investors early in 2026 Peter ...

Group 1: Silver Market Activity - Silver experienced extreme volatility on January 26, with nearly $2 trillion in market cap changing hands within 14 hours [1] - During the session, silver's market value increased by approximately $500 billion from 9:00 AM ET to 1:00 PM ET, followed by a drop of about $950 billion, and then a recovery of another $500 billion by 10:30 PM ET [1][2] - Spot silver prices surged to record levels, trading between $110 and $117 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar, global tensions, and broader market stress [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin lagged behind silver during the same period, declining about 3% over the past week and remaining below the key $90,000 level, with its current market cap around $1.76 trillion [4] - The market cap of Bitcoin reached $2.49 trillion during an early October 2025 rally but has since decreased [4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Over a 20-year span, investors holding gold and silver would have earned approximately 10.6% per year, while silver's return was only 4.5% last year, which has since improved [5] - Metals and cryptocurrencies often experience significant gains in short bursts, indicating that investors should exercise patience [5] Group 4: Market Focus - The trading community is focused on January 28, referred to as "Super Wednesday," with attention on U.S. crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which could impact inflation expectations and overall market risk appetite [6] - WTI crude futures were last traded at $60.73 per barrel, down 0.72% on the day, with a notable decrease in open interest [6][7]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a rally, reaching a 2-month high of $97,860, with gains exceeding 10% for the year, influenced by geopolitical tensions and an upcoming vote on a cryptocurrency bill [3] - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 0.75% to $3.28 trillion [6] - Bitcoin's open interest rose by 2.76%, indicating increased speculative activity [5] Price Movements - Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 1.23% to $96,617.34, while Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.11% to $3,330.89, XRP decreased by 1.89% to $2.12, and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped by 1.84% to $0.1455 [2] - Notable gainers included Dash (+42.65%), Pirate Chain (+39.17%), and Internet Computer (+34.47%) [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment shifted from "Neutral" to "Greed," as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index [5] - Over $380 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, primarily due to short liquidations [4] Stock and Oil Market Performance - The stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.53%, and Nasdaq Composite down 1% [7] - Oil prices fell by 2% to $60.66 per barrel amid geopolitical developments [7] Future Projections for Bitcoin - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may face strong resistance above the $100,000 level, with potential upward movement towards $120,000–130,000 if that ceiling is breached [8] - The upward trend in Bitcoin's price is noted, with expectations of hitting $100,000 within the week [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant inflows of over $1 billion in the first two trading days of 2026, indicating a temporary resurgence in investor risk appetite, which has since diminished due to a three-day outflow streak [1][2] Group 1: ETF Performance - The 11 U.S.-listed spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.128 billion over the past three days, nearly erasing the initial net inflow of $1.16 billion [2] - Year-to-date inflows for Bitcoin ETFs are nearly flat, suggesting a lack of conviction among institutional investors, as early optimism has been replaced by a more cautious outlook [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Macro conditions have tightened risk appetite, with traders seeking positive macroeconomic cues, leading to a risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market [4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped from highs above $94,600 to lows below $89,300, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment that has affected both crypto and equity markets [4] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Market volatility is expected to increase following the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is anticipated to show a job addition of 55,000 in December, down from November's 64,000 [5][6] - A softer labor market could support risk assets, while resilient employment data may keep crypto and broader markets within a range [7]

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Market Overview - Stocks are experiencing a rise, with Wall Street on track for a fifth consecutive day of gains as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increase, leading to a return of risk appetite across technology, cryptocurrency, and commodities [1] - Traders now estimate an 88% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, up from 50% the previous week [1] Major Indices Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,840, just 1% below its all-time high, marking its strongest five-day rally since May [2] - The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.6% to 25,340, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 300 points, trading near 47,730, aiming for a record-high close [2] Sector Performance - Intel Corp. led the S&P 500 with a nearly 8% increase as dip-buying returned to previously beaten-down tech stocks [2] - Crypto-related stocks saw significant intraday gains, with Bitcoin stabilizing near $90,000; Circle Internet Group Inc. rose by 10%, Coinbase Global Inc. by 3.5%, and Strategy Inc. by 2.2% [3] - Metals markets continued their rally, with silver surging nearly 5% to an all-time high of $55.80, and year-to-date silver prices are up 93%, on track for the best year since 1979 [4] - Gold prices increased by 1% to $4,200, while copper gained 2.5% to $5.30 per pound, reflecting a 31% increase year-to-date, the strongest performance since 2010 [4] Energy Commodities - Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub facility jumped 4.5% to $4.80 per million British thermal units, reaching a new three-year high [5] - Crude oil prices rose by 1.5% as market sentiment adjusted following earlier losses, amid cooling optimism regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.5% to $628.02, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied by 0.7% to $477.49 [8] - The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series increased by 0.6% to $617.91, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed with a 1.3% gain [8] Top Gainers and Losers - Top gainers included Circle Internet Group Inc. (+11.4%), Intel Corp. (+8.68%), and Coherent Corp. (+7.54%) [7] - Notable losers included AngloGold Ashanti plc (-5.07%), RLI Corp. (-3.15%), and Eli Lilly and Co. (-2.80%) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The potential end of the longest US government shutdown is leading to increased selling in safe-haven assets like Treasuries, with yields on 10-year debt rising to near 4.15% following a procedural vote in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Global markets reacted positively to the Senate's procedural vote, viewing it as a breakthrough that could lead to the end of the shutdown, which would provide investors with access to important economic data [2]. - Improved risk appetite is noted, with Treasury yields increasing as moderate Democrats in the Senate support moving forward with the bill, suggesting a possible government operation until January [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - An end to the shutdown could restore funding to federal agencies until the end of January, allowing for the release of delayed economic data on inflation and jobs, which are critical for market assessments [4]. - Historical data suggests that the September employment report could be among the first data released post-shutdown, potentially showing a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Outlook - A reopening of government services is expected to refocus markets on the underlying strength of the economy, with resilient earnings growth and a loosening monetary backdrop contributing to a positive outlook [6].

Core Insights - Digital currencies are experiencing a pullback, with Bitcoin holding around the $100,000 level, while Ether and Solana have also seen declines [2][5] - Robinhood reported a significant increase in revenue driven by its crypto business, with a 129% year-over-year rise in transaction-based revenue and a 271% increase in net income [6][5] - Kraken's co-CEO discussed the positive changes in the regulatory environment for crypto in the US, highlighting increased institutional interest and engagement with lawmakers [15][19] Company Performance - Robinhood's revenue from digital assets rose over 200% to $268 million, contributing to a net income of $556 million [6][5] - Despite strong earnings, Robinhood's stock fell nearly 9% following the earnings report [7] - Kraken is exploring an IPO and has reportedly raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation, with plans for further fundraising [33] Market Trends - A report indicated that 55% of hedge funds surveyed are invested in crypto, up from 47% in 2024, with institutional investors citing changing US regulations as a key reason for increased investment [11][12] - Kathy Wood from ARK Invest noted that stablecoins are taking on roles previously expected of Bitcoin, potentially reducing Bitcoin's projected value by $300,000 in future forecasts [8][9] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for crypto in the US has improved, with Kraken's co-CEO noting positive engagement with Congress and regulators [15][19] - New legislation, including the "genius bill," is seen as a significant step forward for the industry, fostering a more favorable environment for institutional investment [15][19] Product Development - Kraken has launched tokenized equities, which are backed one-for-one with shares of stock, and is looking to expand this offering to the US market [21][20] - The company is focused on public equities for tokenization, considering the complexities involved with private stocks [27][29]

Core Insights - The recent weakness in the crypto market is occurring despite strong equity performance, leading to diminished investor confidence due to significant liquidations in October [1] - A slowdown in inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has undermined the positive outlook for bitcoin, which relies on steady ETF inflows from financial advisors and investors [2] - Onchain data indicates a decrease in large bitcoin holders and an increase in smaller retail wallets, suggesting that long-term investors may be selling [3] Market Sentiment - The decline in funding rates points to a decrease in demand for leverage, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [3] - Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, which could further dampen demand as the market often relies on such technical indicators [4] - The tightening of bank liquidity, characterized by drained reserves and high short-term rates, is linked to bitcoin's current weakness [4] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the flows into spot ETFs are a critical signal to monitor for any potential shifts in crypto sentiment, as the industry is still in the early stages of broader adoption [5]

Core Insights - A stronger dollar negatively impacts risk appetite, precious metals, and earnings [1] Group 1: Implications for Risk Appetite - The appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce investors' risk appetite, leading to a more cautious investment environment [1] Group 2: Impact on Precious Metals - A stronger dollar generally results in lower prices for precious metals, as they are often inversely correlated with the dollar's strength [1] Group 3: Effects on Earnings - Companies that rely on international sales may experience a decline in earnings due to unfavorable currency exchange rates caused by a stronger dollar [1]