🔥 $BTC looks alive again, but the next move will not be random.Macro liquidity, risk appetite and capital rotation are lining up for a major decision point.We mapped out the possible paths.Full report inside.https://t.co/WvOsjMNYYB ...

Market Overview - Stocks are experiencing a rise, with Wall Street on track for a fifth consecutive day of gains as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increase, leading to a return of risk appetite across technology, cryptocurrency, and commodities [1] - Traders now estimate an 88% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, up from 50% the previous week [1] Major Indices Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,840, just 1% below its all-time high, marking its strongest five-day rally since May [2] - The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.6% to 25,340, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 300 points, trading near 47,730, aiming for a record-high close [2] Sector Performance - Intel Corp. led the S&P 500 with a nearly 8% increase as dip-buying returned to previously beaten-down tech stocks [2] - Crypto-related stocks saw significant intraday gains, with Bitcoin stabilizing near $90,000; Circle Internet Group Inc. rose by 10%, Coinbase Global Inc. by 3.5%, and Strategy Inc. by 2.2% [3] - Metals markets continued their rally, with silver surging nearly 5% to an all-time high of $55.80, and year-to-date silver prices are up 93%, on track for the best year since 1979 [4] - Gold prices increased by 1% to $4,200, while copper gained 2.5% to $5.30 per pound, reflecting a 31% increase year-to-date, the strongest performance since 2010 [4] Energy Commodities - Natural gas prices at the Henry Hub facility jumped 4.5% to $4.80 per million British thermal units, reaching a new three-year high [5] - Crude oil prices rose by 1.5% as market sentiment adjusted following earlier losses, amid cooling optimism regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace deal [5] ETF Performance - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.5% to $628.02, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied by 0.7% to $477.49 [8] - The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series increased by 0.6% to $617.91, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed with a 1.3% gain [8] Top Gainers and Losers - Top gainers included Circle Internet Group Inc. (+11.4%), Intel Corp. (+8.68%), and Coherent Corp. (+7.54%) [7] - Notable losers included AngloGold Ashanti plc (-5.07%), RLI Corp. (-3.15%), and Eli Lilly and Co. (-2.80%) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The potential end of the longest US government shutdown is leading to increased selling in safe-haven assets like Treasuries, with yields on 10-year debt rising to near 4.15% following a procedural vote in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Global markets reacted positively to the Senate's procedural vote, viewing it as a breakthrough that could lead to the end of the shutdown, which would provide investors with access to important economic data [2]. - Improved risk appetite is noted, with Treasury yields increasing as moderate Democrats in the Senate support moving forward with the bill, suggesting a possible government operation until January [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - An end to the shutdown could restore funding to federal agencies until the end of January, allowing for the release of delayed economic data on inflation and jobs, which are critical for market assessments [4]. - Historical data suggests that the September employment report could be among the first data released post-shutdown, potentially showing a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Outlook - A reopening of government services is expected to refocus markets on the underlying strength of the economy, with resilient earnings growth and a loosening monetary backdrop contributing to a positive outlook [6].

Core Insights - Digital currencies are experiencing a pullback, with Bitcoin holding around the $100,000 level, while Ether and Solana have also seen declines [2][5] - Robinhood reported a significant increase in revenue driven by its crypto business, with a 129% year-over-year rise in transaction-based revenue and a 271% increase in net income [6][5] - Kraken's co-CEO discussed the positive changes in the regulatory environment for crypto in the US, highlighting increased institutional interest and engagement with lawmakers [15][19] Company Performance - Robinhood's revenue from digital assets rose over 200% to $268 million, contributing to a net income of $556 million [6][5] - Despite strong earnings, Robinhood's stock fell nearly 9% following the earnings report [7] - Kraken is exploring an IPO and has reportedly raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation, with plans for further fundraising [33] Market Trends - A report indicated that 55% of hedge funds surveyed are invested in crypto, up from 47% in 2024, with institutional investors citing changing US regulations as a key reason for increased investment [11][12] - Kathy Wood from ARK Invest noted that stablecoins are taking on roles previously expected of Bitcoin, potentially reducing Bitcoin's projected value by $300,000 in future forecasts [8][9] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for crypto in the US has improved, with Kraken's co-CEO noting positive engagement with Congress and regulators [15][19] - New legislation, including the "genius bill," is seen as a significant step forward for the industry, fostering a more favorable environment for institutional investment [15][19] Product Development - Kraken has launched tokenized equities, which are backed one-for-one with shares of stock, and is looking to expand this offering to the US market [21][20] - The company is focused on public equities for tokenization, considering the complexities involved with private stocks [27][29]

Core Insights - The recent weakness in the crypto market is occurring despite strong equity performance, leading to diminished investor confidence due to significant liquidations in October [1] - A slowdown in inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has undermined the positive outlook for bitcoin, which relies on steady ETF inflows from financial advisors and investors [2] - Onchain data indicates a decrease in large bitcoin holders and an increase in smaller retail wallets, suggesting that long-term investors may be selling [3] Market Sentiment - The decline in funding rates points to a decrease in demand for leverage, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [3] - Bitcoin's price has fallen below its 200-day moving average, which could further dampen demand as the market often relies on such technical indicators [4] - The tightening of bank liquidity, characterized by drained reserves and high short-term rates, is linked to bitcoin's current weakness [4] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the flows into spot ETFs are a critical signal to monitor for any potential shifts in crypto sentiment, as the industry is still in the early stages of broader adoption [5]

Core Insights - A stronger dollar negatively impacts risk appetite, precious metals, and earnings [1] Group 1: Implications for Risk Appetite - The appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce investors' risk appetite, leading to a more cautious investment environment [1] Group 2: Impact on Precious Metals - A stronger dollar generally results in lower prices for precious metals, as they are often inversely correlated with the dollar's strength [1] Group 3: Effects on Earnings - Companies that rely on international sales may experience a decline in earnings due to unfavorable currency exchange rates caused by a stronger dollar [1]

Market Overview - Futures are trading higher, driven by positive news regarding a potential trade agreement with China and the TikTok issue resolution [1] - Wall Street is anticipating a significant number of earnings reports this week, particularly from technology giants in the Magnificent 7 [1] - Strong retail participation and new overseas investments are contributing to the momentum towards the S&P 500 reaching 7000 [1] Treasury Yields - Yields are mixed, with shorter maturities trading modestly lower and longer maturities, such as the 30-year and 20-year bonds, showing small gains [2] - The Treasury Market and Wall Street are pricing in a near 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week [2] Oil & Gas - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude started the week slightly lower after a rally that pushed WTI above $60 [3] - OPEC+ production increases are identified as the main reason for recent pricing dislocation [3] - Analysts expect a jump in gasoline demand as prices drop nationwide heading into the holidays [3] - Natural Gas prices increased over 4%, closing at $3.44 [3] Gold Market - Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce after a significant rally, with analysts noting improved risk appetite and profit-taking [4] - A potential correction in Gold prices could last for months, although Central Bank buying may provide support [4] - Some analysts are projecting Gold prices to reach $5,000 and Silver to $60 [4] Analyst Ratings - CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) upgraded to Buy with a target price of $706 [5] - Southern Copper (SCCO) target price raised from $89 to $115, but maintains a Sell rating [5] - DTE Energy (DTE) initiated with an Overweight rating and a $157 target price [6] - McDonald's Corporation (MCD) started with a Neutral rating and a target price of $300 [6] - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) initiated with a Neutral rating and a target price of $84 [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) initiated with an Overweight rating and a $478 target price [6] - Fox Corporation (FOXA) upgraded to Buy with a target price of $97 [6] - BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) target price lowered from $90 to $80 while maintaining a Buy rating [6] - Dow Inc. (DOW) target price raised from $24 to $27 while keeping a Neutral rating [6] - Brinker International (EAT) initiated with an Outperform rating and a target price of $155 [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the broader financial markets, particularly the equity markets and macroeconomic conditions impacting investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments - **Risk Appetite Decline**: The Risk Appetite Indicator has decreased to approximately 0.2 from 0.7 at the end of Q3, indicating a deterioration in investors' risk appetite due to renewed tariff tensions and credit loss concerns [5][6][4]. - **Equity Market Outlook**: The probability of a significant equity rally is low, while the risk of a drawdown has increased, primarily due to elevated equity valuations and a weak US business cycle [5][6][4]. - **Economic Growth Expectations**: Economists expect US growth to pick up in 2026, with GDP and payroll growth anticipated to improve as tariff impacts lessen and fiscal policies become more expansionary [6][4]. - **Hedging Strategies**: The report suggests that adding downside hedges at current drawdown probability levels could enhance equity risk-adjusted returns with limited costs [4][6][11]. - **Cross-Asset Volatility**: The reset in cross-asset volatilities presents opportunities to add hedges as the year-end approaches [18][4]. Additional Important Content - **Drawdown Risk Factors**: The increase in drawdown risk is attributed to high equity valuations and a weak macroeconomic backdrop, with inflation momentum driven by tariffs [6][9][4]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: Despite the negative macro surprises, market risk and sentiment indicators remain supportive, although they can change rapidly [6][4]. - **Hedging Recommendations**: The report identifies attractive cross-asset hedges against potential growth deterioration, including CDS payers, front-end rates receivers, and puts on cyclical equity sectors [18][20][4]. - **Historical Context**: Historical data suggests that adding hedges when drawdown probabilities are high can limit the costs associated with hedging [11][4]. - **Case Study on Credit Risk**: The report references the sell-off around the SVB failure as a case study, indicating that similar hedges are currently attractive due to renewed concerns about financial system sustainability [18][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and strategic considerations for investors.

Market Sentiment - Risk appetite has not yet returned to meme stocks [1] - $USELESS bounced significantly despite the overall risk appetite [1] - Industry anticipates $USELESS to be a leader when meme stocks rally [1] Investment Strategy - Short-term movements of $USELESS are unpredictable, with potential for both dips and rises [1] - The industry suggests a holding strategy through volatility [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Banks Equities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the performance and outlook of the Chinese banking sector, particularly state-owned banks versus joint-stock banks in the first half of 2025 (1H25) and implications for the second half of 2025 (2H25) [2][9]. Core Insights 1. **Performance of State-Owned Banks**: - State-owned banks outperformed joint-stock banks in loan growth during 1H25, with faster growth partly driven by discounted bills. They are optimistic about retail loan growth in 2H25, supported by new interest subsidies [2][9]. - Concerns regarding retail asset quality are expected to impact joint-stock banks more significantly than state-owned banks [2]. 2. **Wealth Management Growth**: - Retail Assets Under Management (AUM) growth in banks like CMB exceeded retail deposit growth in 1H25, indicating a rising demand for wealth management solutions. There is also an increasing interest in equity and hybrid mutual funds [3][9]. - CMB is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its strong wealth management franchise [3]. 3. **Bank Card Fees Decline**: - Bank card fees experienced a year-on-year decline in 1H25, with state-owned banks generally performing better than joint-stock banks. However, payment and lending activities on internet platforms improved, with Tencent reporting a re-acceleration in payment revenue growth [4][9]. - The shift from traditional debit/credit card payments to third-party platforms poses a risk for banks [4]. 4. **Risk Appetite Among Financial Institutions**: - Post 1H25, banks and insurers exhibited a risk-on sentiment, with corporate bond portfolios growing by 13.7% year-to-date as of July 2025, outpacing government or financial bonds [5][9]. - Insurers showed increased risk appetite through rapid growth in equity portfolios, supported by regulatory backing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks among mainland China banks include: - CCB-H (939 HK, HKD7.88) and CMB-H/A (3968 HK / 600036 CH, HKD48.18/RMB42.54) due to their strong capital positions and prudent risk management [6][9]. - Among Hong Kong financials, BOCHK (2388 HK, HKD38.68) and HKEX (388 HK, HKD448.40) are favored due to strong Southbound inflows and vibrant capital market activity [6][9]. Financial Performance Highlights - The report includes a detailed half-yearly comparison of key financial metrics for major banks, showing trends in net interest income, net fees & commissions, and operating income [11]. - Notable figures include: - Net interest income for major banks increased significantly, with CCB reporting RMB 313,576 million in 1H25 [11]. - Operating profit and attributable profit figures also reflect positive growth trends across various banks [11]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving landscape of payment systems and the potential impact on traditional banking revenue streams [4]. - The overall sentiment in the banking sector appears cautiously optimistic, with a focus on wealth management and risk appetite as key drivers for future growth [5][9].