We see risk appetite getting a boost all over the place. Oil prices are now dropping. But even before that, we saw stock futures substantially higher for Europe.US futures look a little higher. And you just had a really good session. Your perspective.Yeah. So I think, you know, throughout the conflicts, we have seen kind of dip buying mentality on good news. And overall markets have been relatively resilient, which is indicative of when the conflict is over.There's a healthy appetite to buy stocks. And even ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver futures prices are experiencing sharp gains due to a weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, despite a "risk-on" trading day in the stock market [1] - Traders are focusing on the potential for receding inflation if the Middle East conflict de-escalates, which is influencing gold and silver market dynamics [5] - The current market behavior of gold and silver contrasts with historical trends where gold rallied on inflation fears, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] Group 2 - Higher interest rates are expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, which would negatively impact gold and silver prices [7] - Despite significant selling pressure in the crude oil market, gold and silver are posting solid gains, indicating a disconnect between these commodities [8]

Group 1 - The overall risk appetite in the market has been affected by President Trump's recent statements, which provided some clarity on his limits, but investors remain complacent despite worsening conditions [1][5][8] - The situation regarding Iran has deteriorated, with increased missile range and a lack of viable off-ramps for conflict resolution, leading to a bearish outlook for the coming weeks [4][6][9] - Despite a slight recovery in market futures, the month has been the worst for global stocks in three and a half years, indicating a significant downturn in investor sentiment [5][8] Group 2 - The market's reaction to geopolitical events suggests a desire for a positive narrative, but the control of the situation lies with Iran, complicating potential recovery [7][8] - The prevailing sentiment among analysts is to remain bearish rather than adopt a contrarian "buy the dip" strategy, as there is no clear rationale for Iran to de-escalate tensions at this time [9]

Core Viewpoint - Oil markets experienced a significant sell-off influenced by comments from Trump, leading to a decline in WTI oil below $90.00 and Brent oil approaching $101.00, which in turn increased the appetite for risk in other markets, particularly gold and precious metals [1]. Oil Market Summary - WTI oil prices fell below $90.00, while Brent oil prices retreated towards $101.00, indicating a bearish trend in the oil market [1]. - The decline in oil prices has positively impacted risk appetite, benefiting gold and other precious metals [1]. Gold Market Summary - Gold has been perceived as a riskier asset recently due to high leveraged positions following a historical rally, which has shifted demand for safe-haven assets into a bearish influence on gold prices [2]. - Margin calls were identified as a significant factor affecting gold markets at the beginning of the trading session, with some traders capitalizing on the sell-off to increase long positions [3]. - Gold is attempting to stabilize above the support level of $4400 – $4420, with a successful attempt potentially leading to a rise towards the resistance level of $4660 – $4680; the RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a higher likelihood of a rebound [4]. Silver Market Summary - Silver has returned to positive territory, indicating a potential recovery in its market performance [5].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a resurgence as investors show increased risk appetite, leading to a rise in prices and market capitalization [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Bitcoin has seen a price increase of approximately 15% over the past month, reflecting growing investor confidence [1] - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed $2 trillion, indicating a significant recovery from previous lows [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Institutional investors are increasingly entering the cryptocurrency space, contributing to the upward price momentum [1] - Retail investors are also becoming more active, driven by positive sentiment and media coverage surrounding cryptocurrencies [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if the current trend continues, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by the end of the year [1] - The growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies by mainstream financial institutions is expected to further bolster market growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies are consolidating against the dollar, but may face pressure due to diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could reduce risk appetite [1] Group 1 - Asian currencies showed stability in the morning session against the dollar [1] - The potential for Fed rate cuts is fading, which may negatively impact market sentiment [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on multi-asset investment strategies and their performance in 2025, with insights into market conditions and investor sentiment heading into 2026 [3][4][21]. Performance Insights - A global multi-asset portfolio delivered a return close to 20% in USD for 2025, marking the 90th percentile of performance since 1950 [4][5]. - US multi-asset funds had an average performance of 17.2%, while European funds lagged at 5.2%, indicating a significant disparity in returns [14][15]. - The 3-year rolling annualized return for the world portfolio proxy was 14% at the end of 2025, following two strong years of recovery from previous drawdowns [4][14]. Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment at the start of 2026 is bullish, with 90% of European respondents expecting positive global equity returns, the highest recorded [21][24]. - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has shifted above 1 for the first time since 2021, indicating increased risk-taking among investors [21][30]. Valuation Concerns - Elevated equity valuations may limit returns in the medium term, but favorable macro conditions could mitigate this constraint in the near term [33][40]. - US equity valuations are high, but the S&P 500 still delivered above-average returns in 2025, primarily driven by earnings growth [33][40]. Drawdown Risks - Current macro conditions are favorable, reducing the risk of a significant equity drawdown, although elevated valuations and bullish sentiment could lead to smaller corrections [51][53]. - The probability of a bear market (>20% S&P 500 drawdown) has recently declined, but geopolitical shocks and AI disruption concerns remain potential triggers for corrections [53][54]. Geopolitical Risks - Robust portfolio construction is essential to protect against geopolitical shocks, which can lead to increased volatility [61][62]. - Historical data suggests that equities often recover strongly after geopolitical uncertainties ease [63][64]. Bond Market Dynamics - Bonds may provide a smaller buffer during equity drawdowns compared to historical norms, with equity/bond correlations expected to be more negative in 2026 [69][71]. - The current environment of higher inflation volatility and fiscal policy concerns may lead to lower Sharpe ratios for bonds [74]. US Asset Dominance - US assets continue to dominate global benchmarks, comprising over 60% of global equity and nearly 50% of bond benchmarks [75][76]. - Investors are increasingly focusing on FX hedging and diversifying into assets negatively correlated with the Dollar [79][80]. Diversification Opportunities - Attractive diversification strategies include regional and style diversification, selective commodity exposure, and allocations to alternatives like hedge funds and private markets [92][100]. - Defensive indices have outperformed during periods of volatility, particularly in the context of AI disruption fears [95][96]. Carry Trade Opportunities - Current low risk premia indicate limited opportunities for carry trades, with increased vulnerability to growth and rate shocks [101][102]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the multi-asset investment landscape as of early 2026.

Joining us now is Tom Lee, Funstrat, uh, head of research. I'm not going to say that u that that you didn't call this Tom because it was the beginning of the year you were talking about did you use the word uh speed bumps or volatility or I don't know what it was, but you also said that it a lot of it could be based on things coming out of Washington that the market was going to be held hostage of that to some extent. Is is this worse than you expected or pretty much uh what you were thinking.>> Um well and ...

Group 1: Silver Market Activity - Silver experienced extreme volatility on January 26, with nearly $2 trillion in market cap changing hands within 14 hours [1] - During the session, silver's market value increased by approximately $500 billion from 9:00 AM ET to 1:00 PM ET, followed by a drop of about $950 billion, and then a recovery of another $500 billion by 10:30 PM ET [1][2] - Spot silver prices surged to record levels, trading between $110 and $117 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar, global tensions, and broader market stress [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin lagged behind silver during the same period, declining about 3% over the past week and remaining below the key $90,000 level, with its current market cap around $1.76 trillion [4] - The market cap of Bitcoin reached $2.49 trillion during an early October 2025 rally but has since decreased [4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Over a 20-year span, investors holding gold and silver would have earned approximately 10.6% per year, while silver's return was only 4.5% last year, which has since improved [5] - Metals and cryptocurrencies often experience significant gains in short bursts, indicating that investors should exercise patience [5] Group 4: Market Focus - The trading community is focused on January 28, referred to as "Super Wednesday," with attention on U.S. crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, which could impact inflation expectations and overall market risk appetite [6] - WTI crude futures were last traded at $60.73 per barrel, down 0.72% on the day, with a notable decrease in open interest [6][7]

So, Bitcoin is bouncing off Sunday's one-mon low near 86,000. But the real question is whether this is stabilization or just a pause before the next leg lower. Now, options have gotten a bit more upbeat into Friday's options expiration.The most concentrated interest is up at that $100,000 call and 90K is the key floor that traders are watching into the end of the week. But zoom out and the crypto trade is still very fragile. Bitcoin is on track for a fourth straight negative monthly close, a stretch that we ...