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特斯拉到底应该值多少钱?
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-24 03:49
Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and potential of Tesla's Full-Self Driving (FSD) subscription model, highlighting its integration into daily driving and the implications of its market acceptance and technological advancements [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: FSD Subscription Model - The current FSD subscription price is $99 per month, reduced from $199 in April 2024, but its sustainability is questioned [6]. - Tesla's global vehicle ownership is approximately 7.6 million, with an estimated FSD subscription user ratio of less than 15% [6]. - The acceptance of the subscription fee varies by region, with potential pressure from local competitors in markets like China [6][7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements vs. Production Capacity - Tesla's FSD system has made significant strides with the introduction of end-to-end deep learning, achieving a latency of under 50 milliseconds in version V13 [8]. - However, the rapid advancement in AI technology contrasts with the slower pace of automotive production capacity, which may limit user experience improvements [9][12]. - The global annual vehicle sales are about 88.3 million, with Tesla's projected 2024 delivery of 1.79 million vehicles representing around 2% of the market [11]. Group 3: Transition to Robotaxi Operations - Tesla plans to launch a Robotaxi pilot program in Austin by June 2025, featuring vehicles without steering wheels for true autonomous driving [14]. - The operational complexities of Robotaxi, including fleet management, insurance, and maintenance costs, pose significant challenges [16]. - The success of Robotaxi operations hinges on daily mileage, passenger utilization rates, and cost control, which are critical for achieving profitability [19]. Group 4: Valuation Implications - Tesla's current stock price is $332.11, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.07 trillion and a P/E ratio of 178.2 [20]. - The company's valuation is influenced not only by financial metrics but also by the challenges related to subscription acceptance, AI and production alignment, and the feasibility of Robotaxi operations [20][21]. - The question of Tesla's worth transcends mere financial calculations, involving dynamic interactions among market, user, technology, and regulatory factors [21].