Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Friday, snapping a three-day rally, dragged by metal, IT stocks and caution ahead of the Budget presentation on February 1.Fresh foreign fund outflows and weakness in the rupee also added to the bearish trend in the equity markets.Photograph: Danish Siddiqui/ReutersThe 30-share BSE Sensex declined 296.59 points or 0.36 per cent to settle at 82,269.78.During the day, it tumbled 625.34 points or 0.75 per cent to 81,941.03.The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped ...

Market Performance - Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower, with Sensex declining by 296.59 points or 0.36% to settle at 82,269.78, and Nifty dropping by 98.25 points or 0.39% to end at 25,320.65, snapping a three-day rally [1][2] - The decline was influenced by selling pressure in metal and IT stocks, with Tata Steel experiencing the largest drop of 4.57% among Sensex firms [2] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹393.97 crore on January 29, 2026, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth ₹2,638.76 crore [3] Economic Outlook - India's economy is projected to grow by 6.8-7.2% in the upcoming fiscal year, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing major economy despite global trade risks and volatility [5] Market Sentiment - The Indian equity markets exhibited volatility ahead of the Union Budget, with cautious sentiment due to persistent foreign fund outflows and rupee depreciation [4][7] - Analysts noted that market participants are balancing pre-Budget positioning against external headwinds, contributing to a cautious market environment [7]

Core Insights - The Indian rupee has depreciated past 90 to the dollar, marking a record low and making it Asia's worst-performing currency with a 5% decline this year [1][8] - Economists predict that the rupee's depreciation will persist, particularly if a US-India trade deal is not secured, with expectations of further weakening beyond 90 per dollar [8][6] Currency Performance - The rupee closed at 89.98 per dollar on December 3, 2023, and is expected to trade in the range of 89-91 by March 2026 if no trade deal is reached [1][8] - HDFC Bank forecasts the current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 1.1% of GDP in FY26, while IDFC First Bank projects a deeper deficit of 1.6%, compared to 0.6% in FY25 [5][8] Trade Deal Implications - A potential US-India trade deal is anticipated by the end of December, which could provide temporary support to the rupee, but any gains may be limited due to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) actions [6][8] - The ongoing 50% US tariff, which includes a 25% penalty on Russian oil imports, is expected to add approximately 0.3% of GDP to the FY27 CAD [4][8] Economic Outlook - The RBI has cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, but this is expected to have only a temporary effect on the currency, with trade deal outcomes and capital flows being the main drivers of currency performance [6][8] - Seasonal trends may provide some relief for the rupee in Q4 FY26, as the trade deficit narrows and the balance of payments may turn surplus [5][8] Inflation Impact - Economists do not foresee significant inflationary pressure from the rupee's weakness, attributing inflation more to food price trends and recent GST rationalization [7][9] - Core inflation may see some impact from gold and jewelry prices, but this is expected to be offset by lower food prices [9]

Core Insights - The depreciation of the Indian rupee to a record low of ₹90 against the dollar highlights the importance of hedging investment portfolios against currency risks, especially as Indians increasingly spend in foreign currencies for various needs [1][18] - The rupee has depreciated by 5% against the dollar recently, compared to its historical annual depreciation of 2.5-3% [1] Investment Options - Domestic mutual funds face constraints due to overseas investing limits, and international ETFs are trading at premiums on domestic exchanges, limiting global diversification options [2] - Feeder funds, which invest in international funds, are available for subscription, but they are actively managed and may not provide the same comfort as broad index investments [3][4] - Foreign broker platforms like Vested and INDMoney offer access to US equities and ETFs, allowing investors to buy fractional shares, thus making high-priced stocks more accessible [5][6][18] - Gift City funds, such as the DSP MF retail outbound fund, require a minimum investment of $5,000 and have unique tax implications, with taxes applied at the fund level rather than the investor level [9][10] Taxation and Regulatory Aspects - Investments made through Gift City do not require reporting under Schedule FA in income-tax returns, making them attractive for Indian investors [17][19] - Standard taxation applies to foreign investments outside of Gift City, with short-term gains taxed at the investor's slab rate and long-term gains at 12.5% [20] Strategic Recommendations - Financial advisors recommend a global allocation of 10-30% in investment portfolios to mitigate the impact of rupee depreciation, suggesting a gradual build-up to avoid market peaks [18][21] - Investors are advised to analyze and select the right fund manager for global funds launched in Gift City, while broad-based ETFs or index funds on foreign exchanges may offer a simpler investment route [22]