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瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20260108
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 09:21
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the price of the container shipping index (European line) futures dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 8.98%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas. [1] - Maersk lowered the quotation for some non - European base ports (such as Gdansk) by $250 in the fourth week of January, and CMA CGM and the Ocean Alliance also lowered their quotations for the first half of January. The market quotation center generally fell to the range of $2300 - 2800 per FEU. The loosening of spot quotations by leading shipping companies broke the market's expectation of consistent price support by shipping companies, leading to a rapid decline in futures prices. [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026. The expectation of the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The euro - zone economy has continued to pick up, and the inflation sub - item has continued to decline, which creates conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude. The euro - zone economy is expected to continue its relative strength since the third quarter. [1] - The planned freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered their prices, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The geopolitical situation may improve, leading to a significant decline in freight rates. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Data Indicators - EC main contract closing price: 1706.000, down 168.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1163.3, down 58.20 [1] - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: - 54.40 (down), EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 291.00, down 65.20 [1] - EC contract basis: 89.83, up 73.10 [1] - EC main contract open interest: 20008, down 1803 [1] - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1795.83, up 53.19; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1250.12, down 51.29 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1776.00, up 54.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1317.00, down 13.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20582.00, down 963.00 [1] Industry News - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new stage, and the conflict with Russia may end during Cyprus' term as the rotating EU presidency in 2026. [1] - The US "small non - farm" in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. The number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. [1] - The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:00 [1] - China's CPI annual rate in December on January 9th at 09:30 [1] - France's industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:45 [1] - Euro - zone's retail sales monthly rate in November on January 9th at 18:00 [1] - US unemployment rate in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1] - US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1]