Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the price of the container shipping index (European line) futures dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 8.98%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas. [1] - Maersk lowered the quotation for some non - European base ports (such as Gdansk) by $250 in the fourth week of January, and CMA CGM and the Ocean Alliance also lowered their quotations for the first half of January. The market quotation center generally fell to the range of $2300 - 2800 per FEU. The loosening of spot quotations by leading shipping companies broke the market's expectation of consistent price support by shipping companies, leading to a rapid decline in futures prices. [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026. The expectation of the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The euro - zone economy has continued to pick up, and the inflation sub - item has continued to decline, which creates conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude. The euro - zone economy is expected to continue its relative strength since the third quarter. [1] - The planned freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered their prices, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The geopolitical situation may improve, leading to a significant decline in freight rates. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Data Indicators - EC main contract closing price: 1706.000, down 168.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1163.3, down 58.20 [1] - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: - 54.40 (down), EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 291.00, down 65.20 [1] - EC contract basis: 89.83, up 73.10 [1] - EC main contract open interest: 20008, down 1803 [1] - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1795.83, up 53.19; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1250.12, down 51.29 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1776.00, up 54.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1317.00, down 13.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20582.00, down 963.00 [1] Industry News - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new stage, and the conflict with Russia may end during Cyprus' term as the rotating EU presidency in 2026. [1] - The US "small non - farm" in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. The number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. [1] - The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:00 [1] - China's CPI annual rate in December on January 9th at 09:30 [1] - France's industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:45 [1] - Euro - zone's retail sales monthly rate in November on January 9th at 18:00 [1] - US unemployment rate in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1] - US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The shipping index (European Line) futures prices fluctuated on Wednesday, with the main contract EC2602 down 3.62%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement rate index rose 3.1% week-on-week, driving up the futures prices. China's manufacturing PMI in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export orders index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transport demand. Spot freight rates continued to rise slowly in January. Geopolitical tensions, such as the resumption of the Israeli offensive in Gaza, supported freight rates. The eurozone economy continued to recover, and the German service industry showed strong repair. Trade war situation improvement and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of geopolitical situation on freight rates has weakened. The freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - EC main contract closing price was 1779.10, down 66.9; EC next - main contract closing price was 1182, down 23.10. EC2602 - EC2604 spread was down 51.80; EC2602 - EC2606 spread was 356.20, down 99.50. EC contract basis was up 93.60 to 16.73. EC main contract open interest decreased by 3185 to 21811 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) rose 53.19 to 1795.83; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1250.12, down 51.29; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) rose 103.40. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) rose 21.94; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1519.06, up 45.16. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) rose 21.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1304.00, down 11.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships remained unchanged, and that of Cape - size ships rose 870.00 to 22415.00 [2]. 3.3 Industry News - China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes. The US was discussing ways to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free association, and military means. A large number of US military planes flew to Europe, and Iran's armed forces were on high alert [2]. 3.4 Key Data - The new export orders index in China's manufacturing PMI in December rose to 49. The eurozone economy continued to recover, with Germany's service industry showing strong repair and the composite PMI above 50, and inflation continuing to decline [2]. 3.5 Spot Freight Rate - Spot freight rates in January maintained a slow - rising trend, with the early - January quotation up 400 US dollars compared to December, and the late - January preliminary quotation for large containers ranging from 2700 - 3100 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - After a brief cease - fire at the end of 2025, the Israeli army restarted a large - scale ground offensive in the southern Gaza Strip in early 2026, and the Red Sea resumption expectation turned cold [2]. 3.7 Focus on Data - Focus on data such as the UK's December Halifax seasonally - adjusted house price index monthly rate, the eurozone's November PPI monthly rate, the eurozone's November unemployment rate, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, and the US October wholesale sales monthly rate [2].

Group 1: Market Data Futures Market - EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points on January 5, up 3.01% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 22,903.0 lots, up 6.50%, and the open interest was 26,046.0 lots, up 7.94% [4]. - EC2604 closed at 1,198.0 points, up 2.74%. The trading volume was 8,562.0 lots, up 89.97%, and the open interest was 22,629.0 lots, up 8.17% [4]. - EC2606 closed at 1,389.0 points, up 1.54%. The trading volume was 500.0 lots, up 20.77%, and the open interest was 2,201.0 lots, up 2.28% [4]. - EC2608 closed at 1,502.3 points, up 0.15%. The trading volume was 127.0 lots, up 95.38%, and the open interest was 1,188.0 lots, down 0.59% [4]. - EC2610 closed at 1,082.6 points, up 2.13%. The trading volume was 948 lots, up 197.18%, and the open interest was 6,055 lots, up 0.51% [4]. - EC2612 closed at 1,311.9 points, up 1.15%. The trading volume was 21 lots, up 61.54%, and the open interest was 48 lots, down 17.24% [4]. Spread Structure - The spread between EC02 - EC04 was 658, up 22.2; EC02 - EC06 was 467, up 33.1; EC04 - EC06 was -191, up 10.9; EC02 - EC08 was 353, up 51.9; EC04 - EC08 was -304, up 29.7; EC04 - EC10 was 115, up 9.4; EC06 - EC08 was -113, up 18.8; EC08 - EC10 was 420, down 20.3 [4]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line Index was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% week - on - week and down 46.99% year - on - year. SCFIS US West Line Index was 1250.12 points, down 3.94% week - on - week and down 55.71% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Composite Index was 1656.32 points, up 6.66% week - on - week and down 30.70% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - West Africa was 3201 USD/TEU, up 6.57% week - on - week and down 29.21% year - on - year [4]. - SCFI Shanghai - US West was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% week - on - week and down 47.88% year - on - year. SCFI Shanghai - South Africa was 2356 USD/TEU, down 1.14% week - on - week and down 32.90% year - on - year [4]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price was 57.31 dollars/barrel, down 0.81% week - on - week and down 20.93% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was 60.55 dollars/barrel, down 1.19% week - on - week and down 19.8% year - on - year [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - The market has differences on the January freight rate peak and subsequent price adjustment rhythm, and the futures market maintains high - level volatility. On January 5, EC2602 closed at 1855.5 points, up 3.01%. On December 26, the SCFI European Line quoted 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line Index released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1795.83 points, up 3% week - on - week, slightly lower than expected due to the delay and skipping of four low - price ships in week 52 [6]. Logic Analysis - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam in week 3 was 2700 USD/HC, and Shanghai - Hamburg was 2800/HC, up about 100 USD week - on - week. OOCL's January first - half quote was around 2700 - 2900, COSCO/CMA's offline quote in January first - half was around 3000, EMC's was 2900 - 2950, YML's offline quote in January first - half was 2650, and 2400 with open volume, ONE's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2800, and 3300 online in the second half, HMM's offline quote in the second week of January was 2600, MSC's online/offline quote in January first - half was 2840, and 3140 in the second half [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve. On January 5, 2026, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in January/February/March was 30.74/27.59/28.33 million TEU. Compared with the previous period (December 29), the capacity in January and February decreased slightly. There were 3 additional ship suspensions and 2 additional ships in January, and 2 additional blank sailings and some ship delays in February [7]. - Geopolitically, the US strike on Venezuela has caused short - term sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and concerns about long - term energy supply chain restructuring. It may increase fuel costs in the short term and put pressure on oil prices in the long term, also affecting the trade pattern. Currently, the conflict has little impact on container shipping routes, but the subsequent scale and scope of the conflict need attention [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level volatile view. Most long positions in the EC2602 contract should take profit at high levels, and the remaining light positions can be held depending on the situation. Pay attention to the strength of the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. The far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of shipping expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Group 3: Industry News - On January 3, US President Trump ordered strikes on targets in Venezuela, including military facilities [12]. - Trump postponed the new round of tariff increase measures on soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanity cabinets by one year to 2027. These tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect last Thursday [12]. Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) shows increased gaming characteristics and is in a high - level oscillation state [1][4]. - For the 2602 contract, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and in the context of further relaxation of supply - demand and a continuous decline in the freight rate center, the bottom valuation of the 04 contract can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 314,000 TEU/week. Maersk added an extra ship in wk3, and COSCO's AEU3 voyages from wk5 to wk7 were delayed by one week. The shipping schedules in January became more even, with the market capacity from week 1 to 5 ranging between 308,000 and 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in wk4 (144,200 TEU), and the PA Alliance's in wk3 (57,700 TEU). The Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployment [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 6 empty sailings and 4 undetermined ones, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 4 undetermined voyages). Except for the GEMINI Alliance, other shipping companies have not released their Chinese New Year suspension plans [4]. - In terms of geopolitics, the Middle - East geopolitical situation did not significantly cool down during the New Year's Day holiday. In the demand aspect, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good in January, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak may appear around mid - January, then decline and drop more sharply from early February [5]. 3.2 Price - SCFIS Index: In wk1 (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), there were 17 departing vessels (318,000 TEU), of which 7 (129,000 TEU) were delayed from wk52. It is subjectively estimated that the SCFIS index on January 5 may be around 1860 points [16]. - Spot Freight Rates: The freight rate height of the 2602 contract: As MSC raises the freight rate by $300/FEU in the second half of the month, the current static FAK average in wk3 is around $2,860/FEU. The inflection point time: First, observe Maersk's cabin opening situation in wk4 next Tuesday, then observe the pricing strategies of the PA Alliance and OA Alliance for the second half of the month. The decline rate: After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be large [6][19]. 3.3 Demand Side - Asian exports to Europe: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) has shown certain fluctuations from 2011 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the trade volume in January was 1,768,400 TEU, and in February was 1,114,400 TEU [31]. - Asian exports to North America: The container trade volume between Asia and North America also fluctuated from 2011 to 2025. In 2025, the trade volume in January was 2,118,800 TEU, showing an 8.2% year - on - year increase [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Supply Chain Risk Events: Geopolitical situations are disturbing. There are risks of regional escalation in the Middle - East, and instability in Yemen. Although some shipping companies have made trial voyages through the Red Sea, it does not mean the full - scale resumption of normal operations on the Red Sea route [48][49]. - Shipping Schedules: The shipping capacity in January changed little, and the February schedule has some empty sailings and undetermined voyages [4][52]. - Turnover Efficiency: It includes aspects such as sailing speed, idle capacity, regional congestion, and congestion at major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [59][61][64]. - Static Capacity: In December, the top ten shipping companies received new ships of different sizes and deployed them on different routes. In the next three months, they are also expected to receive a number of new ships [77][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance yesterday. The主力2602 contract closed at 1,871.8 points, with an increase of 5,003 lots and a gain of 8.77%. The次主力2604 contract closed at 1,166.8 points, with an increase of 1,634 lots and a gain of 3.6%. The SCFIS on December 22 rose 5.2% from the previous period, basically in line with expectations. The predicted settlement price of the 2512 contract is between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the freight rate level, inflection - point time, and price decline rate. The settlement price of the 2602 contract is the average of the SCFIS for three consecutive Wednesdays (weeks 4, 5, and 6). The 2602 contract can theoretically be anchored to the FAK average in week 5. Different scenarios for the 2602 contract are presented based on the price trend in week 3 [13][14]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, the risk of premium should be watched out for [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,589.20 points, up 5.2% week - on - week; for the US West route, it was 962.10 points, up 4.1% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was $1,533/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 0.3%, and for the US West route was $1,992/FEU, up 11.9% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's 40'GP is $2,530 and 20'GP is $1,575 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.03 [1]. 2. Macro News - Maersk's Sebarok completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the early morning of December 19, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years. It is a 6,500 - TEU ship operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will discuss Iran's nuclear activities and the next phase of the Gaza plan with US President Trump during his visit next week. Israel is also trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from blocking international shipping routes [8]. - Iranian state media reported that multiple cities in Iran held missile exercises [10]. 3. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity remains at 318,000 TEU/week, with the number of pending voyages reduced to 1. Compared with last Sunday's schedule, the capacity in weeks 1 and 3 remains unchanged. The capacity in week 2 is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to additional passive blank sailings on AEU7, and the capacity in week 4 is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU, becoming the week with the greatest supply pressure [12]. - **Demand Side**: Major shipping companies started the practice of cargo rolling in late December, especially the PA Alliance, which laid the foundation for the price increase in early January. Weekly bookings were slow in the first week of January, possibly related to ongoing long - term contract negotiations. The peak cargo volume may occur around mid - January (week 3) and then decline [13]. 4. Price Forecast - **2512 Contract**: The settlement price is expected to be between 1,600 - 1,625 points [11]. - **2602 Contract**: - Neutral Scenario: The FAK average in week 3 is around $2,800/FEU, similar to week 2. The combined decline in weeks 4 and 5 is $300 - $400/FEU. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,720 - 1,800 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,800 - 1,900 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. - Optimistic Scenario: There is a final price increase in week 3, but the increase is less than $400/FEU. The 2602 contract will have an additional premium of 100 - 300 points on top of the neutral scenario, with a valuation between 1,900 - 2,200 points [14]. - Pessimistic Scenario: The price starts to decline in week 3, with a combined decline of $500 - $600/FEU in weeks 3, 4, and 5. The corresponding SCFIS for the 2602 contract is 1,580 - 1,650 points, and the settlement price may be pushed up to 1,650 - 1,750 points due to ship - schedule delays and cargo rolling [14]. 5. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, as its valuation has been significantly repaired, it is recommended to wait and see for now and make dynamic evaluations based on Maersk's opening price [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored to the lowest SCFIS in 2025, which is 1,031 points. In the short term, it is recommended to short - sell based on the 2602 contract's valuation [15]. 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Yesterday, the Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a strong performance. The main 2602 contract reached a high of 1,694.6 points during the session and finally closed at 1,665.2 points, a 3.41% increase. The second - main 2640 contract closed at 1,080.7 points, a 0.57% increase [10]. - In the medium - term, there is still a probability that shipping companies' price increases in January for the 2602 contract will be implemented. However, the overall capacity is not low in both late December and January, high prices are hard to sustain, and there is a drive to stock up at lower prices in late January. In the short - term, market sentiment is optimistic, while in the medium - term, it will be a volatile market. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and whether the bottom space can be opened depends more on shipping companies' resumption schedules [12]. - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - EC2512 closed at 1,655.1, down 0.36% with a trading volume of 3,169 and an open interest change of - 114. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.10, compared to 0.14 the previous day [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1,665.2, up 3.41% with a trading volume of 35,894 and an open interest change of + 669. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.14, compared to 0.62 the previous day [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1,080.7, up 0.57% with a trading volume of 3,703 and an open interest change of - 159. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.19, compared to 0.14 the previous day [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: - The SCFIS European route index was 1,509.10, up 1.7% week - on - week. The SCFIS US West route index was 960.51, up 1.2% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route index was $1,400/TEU, down 0.3% bi - weekly. The SCFI US West route index was $1,550/FEU, down 5.0% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: - Gemini Alliance's 52 - week FAK average was about $2,275/FEU. Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was lowered by $100 to $2,300/FEU, and the Hamburg port price remained at $2,300/FEU. HPLSPOT's late - December price was $2,200 - 2,300/FEU [11]. - OA Alliance's late - December quotes were between $2,500 - 2,620/FEU, with an average of about $2,530/FEU. Evergreen's late - December offline price was $2,550/FEU, and its slow - boat CES route price was $2,500/FEU. OOCL's online late - December quote was $2,500 - 2,600/FEU. COSCO's late - December price was around $2,500/FEU, up $200/FEU from the previous period. CMA's late - December price was $2,620/FEU, up $100/FEU from the previous period [11]. - MSC's late - December FAK was $2,640/FEU, up $200/FEU from the early - December [11]. - PA Alliance: Yang Ming quoted $2,800/FEU in week 51 and $2,600/FEU in week 52. It is expected that the PA freight rate center will have a slight decline on the basis of $2,600 - 2,800/FEU, but the late - December freight rate center will be higher than the early - December [11]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.24, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.06 [1]. 3.2 Macro News - On December 10, local time, Ukraine's State Security Service sank an oil tanker of Russia's "shadow fleet" in the Black Sea using naval drones. Russia has not responded yet [8]. - US President Trump said on December 11 that the announcement of the members of the "Gaza Peace Committee" will be made early next year, and many world leaders want to join [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a strong performance. The 2512 contract closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%, and the 2602 contract closed at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%. The market anticipates Maersk to support the FAK price in late November, and the 2512 contract has factored in the expected price increase in December [10]. - For the 2512 contract, adopt a low - buying strategy. The PSS - adjusted long - term contract price strengthens the FAK bottom. If the December capacity increase is limited, the contract valuation may rise to 2050 - 2150 points [13]. - The 2602 contract has a stronger speculative nature, involving factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026, potential resumption of routes, and the height of December freight rates [14]. - For the 2604 contract, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rallies on a quarterly basis [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1871.0 points, up 5.08%; EC2512 at 1606.0 points, up 3.66%; EC2602 at 1194.4 points, up 2.60%. The price difference between EC2512 - EC2604 is 183.1, and between EC2602 - EC2604 is - 228.5 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route index is 1140.38 points, up 10.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index is 863.46 points, up 0.1% week - on - week. The SCFI European route is $1246/TEU, up 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route is $2153/FEU, up 11.2% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In week 46, the lowest FAK quote is around $1900/FEU from the PA Alliance. The FAK average price is about $2150/FEU, equivalent to 1500 - 1550 points on the SCFIS index [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: In November, the weekly average capacity is 292,000 TEU/week, up 12.1% month - on - month and 5.4% year - on - year, with 12 blank sailings. In December, there are 3 undetermined and 3 blank sailings, and the weekly average capacity is around 308,000 TEU/week. Port congestion in Northwest Europe persists. In the demand side, shipping company loadings in early November varied [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Israel's Defense Minister claimed to have killed dozens of Hamas commanders; the Israeli military carried out a targeted strike in northern Gaza; Trump made remarks about Hamas; Qatar's Prime Minister communicated with the US regarding Israel's violation of the cease - fire agreement; the UN found activity near Iran's nuclear reserves, but Iran is not actively enriching uranium [7][8]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market in September was in the traditional off - season, with spot freight rates falling rapidly and breaking through the first - half low. As the long - term contract season approaches, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. The market should focus on the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements and their flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season at the end of the year, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm [3][4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In the off - season, spot freight rates were in a rapid decline channel. In September, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low, with the late - September freight rate center dropping to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies narrowing to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line had dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Demand side: In September, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Trump's statement about a new round of strong tariffs may affect shipping volume and rhythm. Supply side: The average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Freight rate side: In September, the off - season spot freight was still in a decline channel due to weak cargo volume. With the spot gradually bottoming out and the expectation of the long - term contract season from November to December, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season before the end of the year and the impact of tariff rhythm [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [6] 3.2 Market Review - In September, the container shipping market entered the traditional off - season. Under the background of increasing cargo - collection pressure on shipping companies and declining ship loading rates, the falling spot freight rates drove the EC2510 contract to continuously test the lower limit. Then, with the start of a new price - support season, it stopped falling and rebounded. The EC contract generally continued to decline in September. When the spot quote fell below the first - half low, the decline exceeded market expectations. Under the pessimistic sentiment, the valuation of the October contract continued to be revised downwards, and the EC2510 contract fell below 1050 points within the month. However, with the approach of the long - term contract season, the expectation of price increases drove the December contract to repair the discount upwards, and some shipping companies' increase in the October spot quote supported the upward movement of the contract price, with the valuation of the October contract expected to be revised upwards. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase announcements [8] 3.3 Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Freight Rate and Price Increase - In September, shipping companies continued to lower freight rates, and the spot freight rate center dropped rapidly, breaking through the first - half low within the month. As the long - term contract season approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised their October spot quotes, and the decline of the October spot freight rate is expected to slow down. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in September was 1346.92 points (as of the week of September 19), a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.68%. As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive SCFI container freight index was 1198.21 points, a month - on - month decrease of 14.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.05%. The global main - route capacity has increased slightly. With the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, major shipping companies have successively announced flight suspension plans, with a suspension rate of about 15% in October [18][19][37] 3.3.2 New Ship Delivery and Order - In August, the global new container ship delivery volume was 163,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 19.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.2%. In August 2025, the number of new container ship orders was 27, with a total of 162,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 77.8%. As of September 2025, the global container shipping capacity reached 32.309 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From September to December 2025, nearly 477,000 TEU of container ships over 8000 TEU are to be delivered, including about 333,800 TEU of ships over 12,000 TEU [48] 3.3.3 Idle Capacity - In September, the idle capacity increased slightly compared with last month. Shipping companies chose to slow down to digest the excess capacity. As of September 22, 2025, the global idle container shipping capacity was 633,000 TEU, an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last month and 4.5% compared with the same period last year [63] 3.3.4 Port and Shipping Conditions - As of September 24, 2025, the number of container ships bypassing the Suez Canal on the Europe - Mediterranean route was 271, accounting for about 70%, and the bypassing was still in a stable state. The global port situation remained stable. Although some European ports were congested due to extreme weather in September, the problem was gradually diluted against the background of declining cargo volume. As of September 22, 2025, the Clarksons global container ship congestion index was 30.6%, showing a significant decline compared with August. The average waiting time for global container ships (over 8000 TEU, 7 - day moving average) was 7.92 hours as of September 21, 2025, a decrease of 2.7 hours compared with the end of August. The Poland - Belarus border port reopened on the early morning of September 25 [76][84][85] 3.3.5 China's Export Situation - In August, China's exports showed resilience, with the goods trade continuing to grow steadily, but there were obvious differentiations among different products and trading partners. In August, China's total export volume was 321.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, with the growth rate slowing down compared with July. The main reason was the expanded decline in exports to the US, which dragged down the total exports. However, the diversification of China's trade buffered the external economic and trade environment, supporting the positive year - on - year growth of exports in August. Specifically, China's exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year - on - year in August, with the decline expanding by 11.4 percentage points compared with July. Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year - on - year, and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% year - on - year, accounting for 16.1% of China's total exports. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export value, with obvious growth in the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles, both with increases of more than 10%. The growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 1.5% [111][113] 3.3.6 European Economic Situation - In September, the European manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, indicating that the foundation of the European economic recovery was not solid and the demand was still fragile. The eurozone's composite PMI in September rose slightly to 51.2, remaining in the expansion range for many consecutive months, mainly due to the good performance of the service industry. The service industry PMI in September was 51.4, slightly exceeding expectations, but the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line to 49.5, reflecting the overall weak performance of the European manufacturing industry. Germany's economy grew driven by the service industry, with the composite PMI in September rising significantly to 52.4, showing a strong recovery momentum, but its manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI in September at 48.5, and there was still production pressure in the future. France's economic situation was the opposite of Germany's. In September, its economic prosperity further deteriorated, with the output of manufacturing and service enterprises declining monthly and the decline intensifying. The manufacturing PMI in September fell to 48.1, and the service industry PMI fell to 48.9 [128] 3.3.7 Container Shipping Volume - In July 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.7584 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 8.7 percentage points compared with June. The container shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.124 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month. The container shipping volume from Asia to the world was 10.355 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 6.8 percentage points compared with June. The global container shipping volume was 16.575 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 2.5 percentage points compared with June [132] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Freight rate: The off - season spot freight rate is still in a rapid decline channel. In September, with sufficient capacity supply, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low within the month. The current late - September freight rate center has dropped to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies has narrowed to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line has dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November. Supply and demand: On the demand side, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally in September, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Recently, Trump said that a new round of strong tariffs would be implemented, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Strategy: Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [138][139]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the shipping index (European line) main contract has increased by over 5% in a single day, currently reported at 1363 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping spot market is in a smooth downward trend during the off - season, and the 10 - contract valuation is expected to be revised downwards. The market will be under pressure from tariffs in the second half of the year, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify [2][4][158] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the peak season cargo volume reached its peak and declined, shipping companies faced greater pressure to secure cargoes, and the ship loading rate decreased. The spot freight rate entered a rapid downward channel. As of August 22, 2025, the SCFI European line was reported at $1668/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35% [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - On the demand side, the peak - season cargo volume has declined from its high point, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has dropped. Since August 1, the trade pressure from the US reciprocal tariff increase has emerged, and the freight rate to the US West Coast has hit a new low this year. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity from August to October 2025 is 297,800/298,900/270,400 TEU respectively. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly during the off - season. The freight rate is expected to continue its downward trend, and the freight rate center should not be overestimated in the second half of the year [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In August, the cargo volume reached its peak and then declined, driving the freight rate down. The EC market followed the spot and showed a weakening trend. The freight rate reduction by shipping companies exceeded market expectations, causing the EC2510 to break below the 1400 - point support level in mid - August. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline smoothly during the off - season, and the 10 - contract freight rate center may be revised downwards [8] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Shipping Companies Lower Quotes, Spot Freight Enters Downward Channel - In August, as the cargo volume declined, shipping companies lowered their spot quotes. The average SCFI in August (as of August 22) decreased by 12.17% month - on - month and 53.58% year - on - year. The competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year [19][20] 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Declines in July - In July, the global container new - ship delivery was 104,300 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.5%. The global container idle capacity increased significantly in August. The shipping capacity supply in September is still abundant [49][69] 3.3.3 Export Growth in July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Tariff Pressure in the Second Half - In July, China's exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Although exports to the US continued to decline, exports to the EU and ASEAN increased. The second half of the year will face greater pressure from tariffs [121] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Future Outlook - The freight rate pressure is prominent, and the shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The freight rate center in the second half of August has dropped below $2500/FEU. The supply of shipping capacity in September is abundant, and the cargo volume is not optimistic under the tariff pressure. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly, and the overall freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down [158] 3.4.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [159]