2025 年 10 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注冲高回落风险 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 日涨跌 昨日收盘价 | | 昨日成交 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,871.0 5.08% | | 34,539 31,906 | | 3,006 | 1.08 | 0.90 | | | EC2512 | 1,606.0 3.66% | | 8,665 15,885 | | 1,975 | 0.55 | 0.45 | | | EC2602 | 2.60% 1,194.4 | | 2,935 14,394 | | 115 | 0.20 | 0.16 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 183.1 | | EC ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market in September was in the traditional off - season, with spot freight rates falling rapidly and breaking through the first - half low. As the long - term contract season approaches, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. The market should focus on the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements and their flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season at the end of the year, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm [3][4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In the off - season, spot freight rates were in a rapid decline channel. In September, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low, with the late - September freight rate center dropping to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies narrowing to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line had dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Demand side: In September, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Trump's statement about a new round of strong tariffs may affect shipping volume and rhythm. Supply side: The average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Freight rate side: In September, the off - season spot freight was still in a decline channel due to weak cargo volume. With the spot gradually bottoming out and the expectation of the long - term contract season from November to December, some shipping companies have successively raised their spot quotes for the second half of October. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' flight suspension plans during the long - term contract price - support season before the end of the year and the impact of tariff rhythm [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [6] 3.2 Market Review - In September, the container shipping market entered the traditional off - season. Under the background of increasing cargo - collection pressure on shipping companies and declining ship loading rates, the falling spot freight rates drove the EC2510 contract to continuously test the lower limit. Then, with the start of a new price - support season, it stopped falling and rebounded. The EC contract generally continued to decline in September. When the spot quote fell below the first - half low, the decline exceeded market expectations. Under the pessimistic sentiment, the valuation of the October contract continued to be revised downwards, and the EC2510 contract fell below 1050 points within the month. However, with the approach of the long - term contract season, the expectation of price increases drove the December contract to repair the discount upwards, and some shipping companies' increase in the October spot quote supported the upward movement of the contract price, with the valuation of the October contract expected to be revised upwards. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase announcements [8] 3.3 Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Freight Rate and Price Increase - In September, shipping companies continued to lower freight rates, and the spot freight rate center dropped rapidly, breaking through the first - half low within the month. As the long - term contract season approaches, major shipping companies have successively raised their October spot quotes, and the decline of the October spot freight rate is expected to slow down. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) in September was 1346.92 points (as of the week of September 19), a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.68%. As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive SCFI container freight index was 1198.21 points, a month - on - month decrease of 14.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.05%. The global main - route capacity has increased slightly. With the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, major shipping companies have successively announced flight suspension plans, with a suspension rate of about 15% in October [18][19][37] 3.3.2 New Ship Delivery and Order - In August, the global new container ship delivery volume was 163,300 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 19.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.2%. In August 2025, the number of new container ship orders was 27, with a total of 162,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 77.8%. As of September 2025, the global container shipping capacity reached 32.309 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From September to December 2025, nearly 477,000 TEU of container ships over 8000 TEU are to be delivered, including about 333,800 TEU of ships over 12,000 TEU [48] 3.3.3 Idle Capacity - In September, the idle capacity increased slightly compared with last month. Shipping companies chose to slow down to digest the excess capacity. As of September 22, 2025, the global idle container shipping capacity was 633,000 TEU, an increase of 1.2% compared with the same period last month and 4.5% compared with the same period last year [63] 3.3.4 Port and Shipping Conditions - As of September 24, 2025, the number of container ships bypassing the Suez Canal on the Europe - Mediterranean route was 271, accounting for about 70%, and the bypassing was still in a stable state. The global port situation remained stable. Although some European ports were congested due to extreme weather in September, the problem was gradually diluted against the background of declining cargo volume. As of September 22, 2025, the Clarksons global container ship congestion index was 30.6%, showing a significant decline compared with August. The average waiting time for global container ships (over 8000 TEU, 7 - day moving average) was 7.92 hours as of September 21, 2025, a decrease of 2.7 hours compared with the end of August. The Poland - Belarus border port reopened on the early morning of September 25 [76][84][85] 3.3.5 China's Export Situation - In August, China's exports showed resilience, with the goods trade continuing to grow steadily, but there were obvious differentiations among different products and trading partners. In August, China's total export volume was 321.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, with the growth rate slowing down compared with July. The main reason was the expanded decline in exports to the US, which dragged down the total exports. However, the diversification of China's trade buffered the external economic and trade environment, supporting the positive year - on - year growth of exports in August. Specifically, China's exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year - on - year in August, with the decline expanding by 11.4 percentage points compared with July. Exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year - on - year, and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% year - on - year, accounting for 16.1% of China's total exports. In the first eight months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 10.6 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, accounting for more than 60% of the total export value, with obvious growth in the exports of integrated circuits and automobiles, both with increases of more than 10%. The growth rate of labor - intensive products decreased by 1.5% [111][113] 3.3.6 European Economic Situation - In September, the European manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell back into the contraction range, indicating that the foundation of the European economic recovery was not solid and the demand was still fragile. The eurozone's composite PMI in September rose slightly to 51.2, remaining in the expansion range for many consecutive months, mainly due to the good performance of the service industry. The service industry PMI in September was 51.4, slightly exceeding expectations, but the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line to 49.5, reflecting the overall weak performance of the European manufacturing industry. Germany's economy grew driven by the service industry, with the composite PMI in September rising significantly to 52.4, showing a strong recovery momentum, but its manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI in September at 48.5, and there was still production pressure in the future. France's economic situation was the opposite of Germany's. In September, its economic prosperity further deteriorated, with the output of manufacturing and service enterprises declining monthly and the decline intensifying. The manufacturing PMI in September fell to 48.1, and the service industry PMI fell to 48.9 [128] 3.3.7 Container Shipping Volume - In July 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.7584 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 8.7 percentage points compared with June. The container shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.124 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month. The container shipping volume from Asia to the world was 10.355 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 6.8 percentage points compared with June. The global container shipping volume was 16.575 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 2.5 percentage points compared with June [132] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Freight rate: The off - season spot freight rate is still in a rapid decline channel. In September, with sufficient capacity supply, the spot freight rate broke through the first - half low within the month. The current late - September freight rate center has dropped to around 1300 - 1600 US dollars/FEU, and the difference between major shipping companies has narrowed to around 200 US dollars/FEU. As of September 19, 2025, the SCFI European line has dropped to 1052 US dollars/TEU. Recently, major shipping companies have successively announced price increases for the second half of October, with the target around 1800 - 2000 US dollars/FEU, and CMA has pre - released an online price of around 3100 US dollars/FEU for November. Supply and demand: On the demand side, the cargo volume continued to decline seasonally in September, and shipping companies still faced cargo - collection pressure. Recently, Trump said that a new round of strong tariffs would be implemented, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies on shipping volume and rhythm. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in September/October/November 2025 was 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The capacity in October decreased slightly compared with last week's schedule, while the capacity in September and November increased slightly. Strategy: Unilateral: The trading logic of the EC2512 contract has switched, and long positions should be held. Arbitrage: Conduct low - level rolling operations for the October - December reverse spread, and hold long positions for the February - April positive spread [138][139]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the shipping index (European line) main contract has increased by over 5% in a single day, currently reported at 1363 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping spot market is in a smooth downward trend during the off - season, and the 10 - contract valuation is expected to be revised downwards. The market will be under pressure from tariffs in the second half of the year, and the competition among shipping companies may intensify [2][4][158] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - After the peak season cargo volume reached its peak and declined, shipping companies faced greater pressure to secure cargoes, and the ship loading rate decreased. The spot freight rate entered a rapid downward channel. As of August 22, 2025, the SCFI European line was reported at $1668/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35% [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - On the demand side, the peak - season cargo volume has declined from its high point, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has dropped. Since August 1, the trade pressure from the US reciprocal tariff increase has emerged, and the freight rate to the US West Coast has hit a new low this year. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity from August to October 2025 is 297,800/298,900/270,400 TEU respectively. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly during the off - season. The freight rate is expected to continue its downward trend, and the freight rate center should not be overestimated in the second half of the year [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In August, the cargo volume reached its peak and then declined, driving the freight rate down. The EC market followed the spot and showed a weakening trend. The freight rate reduction by shipping companies exceeded market expectations, causing the EC2510 to break below the 1400 - point support level in mid - August. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline smoothly during the off - season, and the 10 - contract freight rate center may be revised downwards [8] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Shipping Companies Lower Quotes, Spot Freight Enters Downward Channel - In August, as the cargo volume declined, shipping companies lowered their spot quotes. The average SCFI in August (as of August 22) decreased by 12.17% month - on - month and 53.58% year - on - year. The competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify in the second half of the year [19][20] 3.3.2 Container New - Ship Delivery Declines in July - In July, the global container new - ship delivery was 104,300 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 51.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.5%. The global container idle capacity increased significantly in August. The shipping capacity supply in September is still abundant [49][69] 3.3.3 Export Growth in July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, Tariff Pressure in the Second Half - In July, China's exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Although exports to the US continued to decline, exports to the EU and ASEAN increased. The second half of the year will face greater pressure from tariffs [121] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Future Outlook - The freight rate pressure is prominent, and the shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes. The freight rate center in the second half of August has dropped below $2500/FEU. The supply of shipping capacity in September is abundant, and the cargo volume is not optimistic under the tariff pressure. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to decline rapidly, and the overall freight rate center in the second half of the year is expected to move down [158] 3.4.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Bearish and volatile. The valuation center of the 10 - contract is expected to be revised downwards and needs to be adjusted according to the spot situation. Arbitrage: Roll - operate the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [159]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract and hold reverse spreads for 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 [1][8][12]. - The freight rates in early August showed signs of reaching a peak. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk and ONE reduced their prices [9]. - It is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of market cargo volume appears in mid - August and the subsequent decline rate [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On July 24, 2025, the EC2508 contract closed at 2,239.7 points, down 1.60%; the EC2510 contract closed at 1,537.0 points, down 2.72%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1,701.8 points, down 1.55% [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early August, the freight rates of different alliances showed different trends. The static average quote in week 32 was around $3,400/FEU [9]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.36, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 27.17 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The weekly shipping capacity showed certain fluctuations. The shipping capacity in July - September 2025 was also presented in the table, with the shipping capacity in some periods being 30.0, 27.5, 30.5, etc. (in 10,000 TEU) [7]. - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity from China to Europe in 2024 and 2025 was presented in a chart, showing different levels in different months [6]. 3.3 Macro News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th [3]. - The US has various tariff - related situations with the EU, and the two sides have different stances on tariffs [3]. - US President Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine [3]. 3.4 Forecast for Contracts - **2508 Contract**: In a pessimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may fall to between 2,200 - 2,250 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,050 - 2,150 points. In an optimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may remain between 2,300 - 2,350 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,150 - 2,250 points [11]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European Line. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be reduced and observed, and the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads should be held [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the container shipping index (European route) has increased by over 15.00% in a single day, currently reported at 1650.9 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of the container shipping index has switched from 2508 to 2510. It is recommended to hold a light - short position in the 2510 contract and use low - long positions in the 2512 and 02 contracts for protection [10][13]. - The SCFIS index on July 14 was better than expected, which may drive the 2508 contract to have a subsidy - water space of 50 - 100 points [10]. - The spot freight rate is expected to decline gradually, with the decline rate accelerating in late August. Different scenarios are considered for the valuation of the 2508 contract, and the 2510 contract should be shorted in the long - term due to the traditional off - season [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2510 contract increased its positions by 3971 lots, closing at 1440.7 points with a 4% increase; the 2508 contract decreased its positions by 1009 lots, closing at 2027.2 points with a 0.53% increase [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 14, the SCFIS European route index was 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1266.59 points, a week - on - week decrease of 18.7%. The SCFI European route index was 2099 $/TEU, a bi - weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index was 2194 $/FEU, a bi - weekly increase of 5% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, the Gemini Alliance slightly increased prices, and the OA and PA Alliances (ONE and HMM) kept their rates unchanged. The market freight rate center was stable at around 3350 $/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 301,000 TEU/week, and it was revised down to 335,000 TEU in week 31. The weekly average shipping capacity in August was 315,000 TEU/week, and there were 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages in September. The loading of the Gemini and OA Alliances in late July was relatively optimistic, while MSC faced increased cargo - collecting pressure [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Trump plans to manufacture top - level weapons for NATO, and NATO may supply weapons to other countries. NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that European countries are "stepping up" in weapons supply [9]. - Israel submitted its third version of the plan for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 1, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Core Insights - The container shipping index (European route) has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 10%, reaching a two-month high [1] Group 1 - The continuous rise in the container shipping index indicates strong demand and potential recovery in the shipping industry [1] - The increase of over 10% in the main contract suggests a bullish sentiment among investors and market participants [1] - The new two-month high reflects improving market conditions and may signal a positive trend for shipping companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main contract of the container shipping index (European route) has increased by 8.00%, currently reported at 1550.0 points [1] Group 1 - The container shipping index shows a significant daily increase, indicating a positive trend in the shipping industry [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the shipping index for the European route has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 7.00% to a current level of 1535.8 points [1]