Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the shipping index (European line) main contract has increased by over 5% in a single day, currently reported at 1363 points [1]

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 | 3 | | 一、8 | 月货量筑顶回落带动运价下跌，EC 盘面跟随现货维持震荡偏弱 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 5 | | | 一、船司揽货压力增大后相继调降报价，淡季现货步入顺畅下跌通道 | 5 | | 二、7 | 月集装箱新船交付量延续下降，关注淡季船司停航空班的意愿和计划 | | | | | 9 | | 三、7 | 月出口增速略超市场预期，下半年受关税压制出口压力加大 | 16 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2025 年 8 月 28 日 淡季现货顺畅下跌，10 合约估值存在下修预期 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 运价方面，旺季货量筑顶回落后船司揽货压力增大，船舶装载率出现下降， 现货运价步入快速下跌的通道中，目前 8 月下半月运价中枢已经跌至 2500 美金 /FEU 以下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract and hold reverse spreads for 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 [1][8][12]. - The freight rates in early August showed signs of reaching a peak. Attention should be paid to how other shipping companies respond after Maersk and ONE reduced their prices [9]. - It is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of market cargo volume appears in mid - August and the subsequent decline rate [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On July 24, 2025, the EC2508 contract closed at 2,239.7 points, down 1.60%; the EC2510 contract closed at 1,537.0 points, down 2.72%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1,701.8 points, down 1.55% [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,142/FEU, down 2.4% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early August, the freight rates of different alliances showed different trends. The static average quote in week 32 was around $3,400/FEU [9]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 97.36, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 27.17 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - **Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The weekly shipping capacity showed certain fluctuations. The shipping capacity in July - September 2025 was also presented in the table, with the shipping capacity in some periods being 30.0, 27.5, 30.5, etc. (in 10,000 TEU) [7]. - **Monthly Average Weekly Shipping Capacity from China to Europe**: The monthly average weekly shipping capacity from China to Europe in 2024 and 2025 was presented in a chart, showing different levels in different months [6]. 3.3 Macro News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th [3]. - The US has various tariff - related situations with the EU, and the two sides have different stances on tariffs [3]. - US President Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine [3]. 3.4 Forecast for Contracts - **2508 Contract**: In a pessimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may fall to between 2,200 - 2,250 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,050 - 2,150 points. In an optimistic scenario, the 32 - week SCFIS index may remain between 2,300 - 2,350 points, and the 08 - contract delivery settlement price may be between 2,150 - 2,250 points [11]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European Line. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach at high prices. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be reduced and observed, and the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads should be held [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the container shipping index (European route) has increased by over 15.00% in a single day, currently reported at 1650.9 points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of the container shipping index has switched from 2508 to 2510. It is recommended to hold a light - short position in the 2510 contract and use low - long positions in the 2512 and 02 contracts for protection [10][13]. - The SCFIS index on July 14 was better than expected, which may drive the 2508 contract to have a subsidy - water space of 50 - 100 points [10]. - The spot freight rate is expected to decline gradually, with the decline rate accelerating in late August. Different scenarios are considered for the valuation of the 2508 contract, and the 2510 contract should be shorted in the long - term due to the traditional off - season [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2510 contract increased its positions by 3971 lots, closing at 1440.7 points with a 4% increase; the 2508 contract decreased its positions by 1009 lots, closing at 2027.2 points with a 0.53% increase [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 14, the SCFIS European route index was 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1266.59 points, a week - on - week decrease of 18.7%. The SCFI European route index was 2099 $/TEU, a bi - weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index was 2194 $/FEU, a bi - weekly increase of 5% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, the Gemini Alliance slightly increased prices, and the OA and PA Alliances (ONE and HMM) kept their rates unchanged. The market freight rate center was stable at around 3350 $/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 301,000 TEU/week, and it was revised down to 335,000 TEU in week 31. The weekly average shipping capacity in August was 315,000 TEU/week, and there were 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages in September. The loading of the Gemini and OA Alliances in late July was relatively optimistic, while MSC faced increased cargo - collecting pressure [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Trump plans to manufacture top - level weapons for NATO, and NATO may supply weapons to other countries. NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that European countries are "stepping up" in weapons supply [9]. - Israel submitted its third version of the plan for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 1, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Core Insights - The container shipping index (European route) has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 10%, reaching a two-month high [1] Group 1 - The continuous rise in the container shipping index indicates strong demand and potential recovery in the shipping industry [1] - The increase of over 10% in the main contract suggests a bullish sentiment among investors and market participants [1] - The new two-month high reflects improving market conditions and may signal a positive trend for shipping companies [1]

集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内涨幅达8.00%，现报1550.0点。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the shipping index for the European route has seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 7.00% to a current level of 1535.8 points [1]

Group 1 - The main contract of the container shipping index (European route) reached 1500.0 points, with a daily increase of 4.54% [1]

Group 1 - The main contract of the container shipping index (European route) increased by 8.00% in a single day, currently reported at 1909.0 points [1]