Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the price of the container shipping index (European line) futures dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 8.98%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas. [1] - Maersk lowered the quotation for some non - European base ports (such as Gdansk) by $250 in the fourth week of January, and CMA CGM and the Ocean Alliance also lowered their quotations for the first half of January. The market quotation center generally fell to the range of $2300 - 2800 per FEU. The loosening of spot quotations by leading shipping companies broke the market's expectation of consistent price support by shipping companies, leading to a rapid decline in futures prices. [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026. The expectation of the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The euro - zone economy has continued to pick up, and the inflation sub - item has continued to decline, which creates conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude. The euro - zone economy is expected to continue its relative strength since the third quarter. [1] - The planned freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered their prices, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The geopolitical situation may improve, leading to a significant decline in freight rates. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Data Indicators - EC main contract closing price: 1706.000, down 168.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1163.3, down 58.20 [1] - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: - 54.40 (down), EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 291.00, down 65.20 [1] - EC contract basis: 89.83, up 73.10 [1] - EC main contract open interest: 20008, down 1803 [1] - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1795.83, up 53.19; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1250.12, down 51.29 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1776.00, up 54.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1317.00, down 13.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20582.00, down 963.00 [1] Industry News - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new stage, and the conflict with Russia may end during Cyprus' term as the rotating EU presidency in 2026. [1] - The US "small non - farm" in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. The number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. [1] - The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:00 [1] - China's CPI annual rate in December on January 9th at 09:30 [1] - France's industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:45 [1] - Euro - zone's retail sales monthly rate in November on January 9th at 18:00 [1] - US unemployment rate in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1] - US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1]

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward pressures on various sectors, including external demand, land prices, and production activities, while also noting the overall economic activity index's fluctuations. Group 1: Economic Trends - External demand shows signs of recovery, with the average manufacturing PMI of major economies returning to the growth line at 50.0% in February, up from 49.6% in January, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2][16]. - Land premium rates have rebounded, with an average of 9.02% from January 27 to February 23, increasing to 18.39% in the most recent week, compared to 9.52% in January and 3.59% in December of the previous year [2][13]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has declined to 4.24% as of February 23, down from 5.06% on February 16, but still higher than the low of 2.50% recorded on September 29, 2024 [3][9]. - The index's decline indicates potential policy shifts, as historically, a drop below 3.0% has preceded significant policy changes [11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The transportation sector shows weakness, with average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increasing by only 2.7% year-on-year in February, while flight numbers decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous year [4][12]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have increased by 18% year-on-year as of February 23, recovering from a decline of 12.1% in January [12]. Group 4: Production and Construction - Construction site resumption rates are below last year's levels, with a national average of 64.6% as of February 27, down 12.64 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has slightly improved, reaching 28.5%, while cement dispatch rates are lower than last year [14]. Group 5: Price Trends - Commodity prices are generally declining, with the BPI down 0.2% and the CRB index down 1.4% this week. Key commodities like gold, copper, and oil have also seen price drops [4][18]. - Agricultural products show mixed trends, with pork prices down 2.8% and egg prices rebounding by 1.9% [19]. Group 6: Bond Issuance and Interest Rates - A total of 603.6 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued in January and February, significantly higher than the 329.2 billion yuan issued in the same period last year [6][24]. - Short-term interest rates have decreased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.4597%, 1.6041%, and 1.7152%, respectively [6][26].