Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward pressures on various sectors, including external demand, land prices, and production activities, while also noting the overall economic activity index's fluctuations. Group 1: Economic Trends - External demand shows signs of recovery, with the average manufacturing PMI of major economies returning to the growth line at 50.0% in February, up from 49.6% in January, marking the second consecutive month of increase [2][16]. - Land premium rates have rebounded, with an average of 9.02% from January 27 to February 23, increasing to 18.39% in the most recent week, compared to 9.52% in January and 3.59% in December of the previous year [2][13]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has declined to 4.24% as of February 23, down from 5.06% on February 16, but still higher than the low of 2.50% recorded on September 29, 2024 [3][9]. - The index's decline indicates potential policy shifts, as historically, a drop below 3.0% has preceded significant policy changes [11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The transportation sector shows weakness, with average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increasing by only 2.7% year-on-year in February, while flight numbers decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous year [4][12]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have increased by 18% year-on-year as of February 23, recovering from a decline of 12.1% in January [12]. Group 4: Production and Construction - Construction site resumption rates are below last year's levels, with a national average of 64.6% as of February 27, down 12.64 percentage points year-on-year [5][14]. - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has slightly improved, reaching 28.5%, while cement dispatch rates are lower than last year [14]. Group 5: Price Trends - Commodity prices are generally declining, with the BPI down 0.2% and the CRB index down 1.4% this week. Key commodities like gold, copper, and oil have also seen price drops [4][18]. - Agricultural products show mixed trends, with pork prices down 2.8% and egg prices rebounding by 1.9% [19]. Group 6: Bond Issuance and Interest Rates - A total of 603.6 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued in January and February, significantly higher than the 329.2 billion yuan issued in the same period last year [6][24]. - Short-term interest rates have decreased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.4597%, 1.6041%, and 1.7152%, respectively [6][26].