Safe - haven Assets

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一夜下跌12元!品牌金饰克价在千元关口震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 08:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by U.S. President Trump's call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could further impact market dynamics and gold demand [1][5]. Price Movements - On July 28, spot gold prices fell to $3310 per ounce, marking the first drop since July 17 [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing reductions in their gold prices [1][2]. - As of July 29, the price of gold jewelry from various brands has fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices reported as follows: - Chow Sang Sang: 978 yuan per gram (down 12 yuan) - Lao Feng Xiang: 998 yuan per gram (down 2 yuan) - Others remained stable or saw minor changes [2][3]. Market Trends - The global gold price saw significant increases earlier in the year due to rising geopolitical tensions, with the London spot gold price rising 24.31% year-to-date as of June 30 [3]. - The average price of gold in the first half of 2025 was reported at $3066.59 per ounce, a 39.21% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a similar trend, with Au9999 gold closing at 764.43 yuan per gram, up 24.50% year-to-date [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term speculative demand has weakened, long-term support from central bank purchases and financial investments may sustain gold prices [5]. - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates more than expected, which could lead to a further increase in gold prices by over 10% by the end of the year [5].
债市本周趋于平稳,投行警告“暴风雨前的平静”!美日、黄金将再度迎来布局窗口;日元汇率与日股重回负相关,日经指数是否已到抄底时机?美债避险属性明显减弱,左侧多单布局可考虑分批入场>>
news flash· 2025-05-26 14:06
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with investment banks warning of a "calm before the storm" scenario, indicating potential trading opportunities in response to liquidity shocks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has stabilized this week, suggesting a temporary lull in volatility [1] - The U.S. Treasury's safe-haven appeal is diminishing, prompting considerations for left-side long positions to be entered in phases [1] Group 2: Currency and Equity Insights - The Japanese yen and Japanese stocks have returned to a negative correlation, raising questions about whether the Nikkei index has reached a bottoming opportunity [1] - There are indications that gold and the Japanese yen may present new positioning windows for investors [1]
黄金霸权下的暗流:谁将成为下一个“乱世硬通货”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 01:10
Group 1 - The global capital market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices surpassing $3200 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and instability in the digital currency system [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are showing signs of weakness, as evidenced by a nearly 2% drop in gold ETFs following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, indicating vulnerability to policy shifts [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves for 17 consecutive months reflects structural anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, suggesting that gold may only serve as a temporary solution in a shifting order [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is emerging as a new safe-haven asset, demonstrating resilience during the US dollar depreciation cycle, attracting institutional funds due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature, despite its volatility [2] - Chinese core assets are gaining attention as safe-haven investments, with foreign capital increasingly allocating to undervalued sectors such as banking, power equipment, and biopharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting from high dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The safe-haven logic of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is evolving, with the yen's exchange rate becoming more correlated with the VIX index following the Bank of Japan's policy changes, while the Swiss franc remains a refuge for European capital due to its high gold reserve ratio [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's impending shift in monetary policy is expected to impact various commodities, with historical data indicating that industrial precious metals like copper and silver typically see average gains of 18% within three months of the first rate cut, outpacing gold's 7% [3] - The potential resolution of US-China trade agreements may create new investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electric vehicles, cross-border payments, and biotechnology, which could replicate the explosive growth seen in the 2024 Hongmeng Zhixing industry chain [3] - There are hidden opportunities in "asymmetric risks," where investing in volatility index (VIX) derivatives could serve as insurance against unexpected market movements when the market collectively bets on interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - As the allure of gold as a safe haven diminishes, capital is seeking more aggressive safety margins, requiring investors to build dynamic portfolios that hedge recession risks with US Treasuries, capture benefits from digital currency transitions, and share in the growth of core Asian assets [4] - Historical events such as the Great Depression and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system have shown that the disintegration of old orders often paves the way for the emergence of new investment opportunities and market leaders [4]