Core Insights - December is historically a strong month for the S&P 500, averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950, with a 73% chance of finishing higher [1][2] Seasonal Performance of Stocks - Carnival Corp. has an average December gain of 5.4% over the last 30 years, with a 67% winning rate, peaking in 1998 with a 39.1% increase [4] - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. averages a 4.4% gain in December, with a 57% winning rate, and its best performance was a 46% jump in 2008 [5] - Western Digital Corp. shows a 4.66% average gain in December, with a 67% winning rate, and its standout year was 2001 with a 33.1% surge [6] - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has an average December gain of 4.2% since 2002, with a 64% winning rate, and its best December was in 2012 with a 21.2% gain [7] - Mohawk Industries Inc. enjoys a 4.1% average gain in December, with a 60% winning rate, and its best December was in 2008 with a 39.79% rally [8] - Eli Lilly & Co. averages a 3.1% gain in December, ranking as its third-best month, with a peak of 17.9% in 2008 [9] - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a 3% average December gain since 1999, with its best performance in 2000 at 30.2% [10] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. posts a 2.5% average gain in December, with a 57% winning rate, and its best run was a 23.2% jump in 2000 [11] Summary Table of Key Stocks | Stock Name | December Average Gain | Winning Rate | YTD Gain/Loss (Dec. 1, 2025) | |---------------------------|-----------------------|--------------|-------------------------------| | Carnival Corp. | 5.4% | 67% | +2.39% | | Western Digital Corp. | 4.66% | 67% | +251.7% | | Royal Caribbean Cruises | 4.4% | 57% | +16.2% | | Seagate Technology | 4.2% | 64% | +215% | | Mohawk Industries | 4.1% | 60% | -0.3% | | Eli Lilly | 3.1% | 57% | +35.8% | | Goldman Sachs Group | 3% | 62% | +41% | | JPMorgan Chase | 2.5% | 57% | +28.8% | [12]

Core Insights - October marks the beginning of the most rewarding quarter for Wall Street, with strong seasonal optimism linked to year-end consumer spending and holiday sales [1] - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 typically experiences significant gains during the fourth quarter, contributing over half of its annual performance [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has an average gain of 5% and a median return of 6.65% during the fourth quarter, with 26 out of the last 30 fourth quarters ending higher [2] - The index is currently on a six-year winning streak, highlighting its consistent performance during this period [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks are identified as the strongest seasonal performers in Q4, averaging a gain of 6.64% and finishing higher 80% of the time [4] - Other cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, and materials, average gains of at least 5.5% with similar winning ratios [4] - Health care stocks show consistent performance, while energy and real estate sectors lag, averaging returns of 2.43% and 2.18% respectively [5] Notable Stocks in October - Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has an average gain of 8.35% in October, with a 71% win rate [6][11] - Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) averages a gain of 4.78% in October, with a 67% win rate [7][11] - Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) sees an average gain of 7.1% in October, winning 70% of the time [8][11] - United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) has an average gain of 9.5% in October, with a 58% win rate [9][11] - Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) averages a gain of 3.8% in October, with a 63% win rate [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group is entering a historically strong seasonal period, with October and November showing high win rates for the stock, despite a challenging 2025 marked by earnings disappointments and cost pressures [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UnitedHealth stock has risen over 11% in the past month, closing at $344 [2]. - The stock has historically strong performance in October and November, with win rates of 70% and 75% respectively [1]. - The stock experienced a significant decline in mid-2025, losing over 40% of its value from earlier highs, reaching multi-year lows [8]. Group 2: Financial Guidance and Earnings - The company suspended its full-year outlook earlier in 2025 due to rising medical costs associated with Medicare Advantage [6]. - Although guidance was reinstated, it was set significantly lower than Wall Street expectations, with adjusted EPS targets reset to at least $16 [7]. - Revenue growth remained resilient, increasing about 13% year-over-year in Q2 to approximately $111.6 billion, but operating expenses surged nearly 17%, compressing margins [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The backing of prominent investors like Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and David Tepper supports a bullish outlook on UnitedHealth's long-term value in healthcare [3]. - The stock's recent performance and the reinstatement of guidance may indicate potential for a strong run if the company can manage costs effectively [8].