September 12, 2025 06:42 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America Trough in the Rearview – Reflecting on Analog Earnings With high expectations into earnings, global analog stocks mostly fell short. That said, the JunQ solidified passing the trough for our coverage, and we come away incrementally more optimistic that the recovery is moving in the right direction. Key Takeaways Analog stocks were bruised during earnings, with few exiting unscathed. Following positive cyclical commentary from a broad group of an ...

Question-and-Answer SessionThank you for being here. Maybe let's start on the macro side for a moment. And Texas Instruments has a relatively broad end market exposure. You see a lot across the globe across a wide range of end markets. Maybe give investors some color on where are you seeing incremental strength in other verticals where you're seeing incremental weakness or sluggishness.Haviv IlanCEO, President & Director Yes. Let's start with a really high level. If you think about what we are going through ...

Question-and-Answer SessionThank you for being here. Maybe let's start on the macro side for a moment. And Texas Instruments has a relatively broad end market exposure. You see a lot across the globe across a wide range of end markets. Maybe give investors some color on where are you seeing incremental strength in other verticals where you're seeing incremental weakness or sluggishness.Haviv IlanCEO, President & Director Yes. Let's start with a really high level. If you think about what we are going through ...

Texas Instruments Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Texas Instruments (NasdaqGS:TXN) - **Event**: Goldman Sachs Communication and Technology Conference - **Date**: September 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Semiconductor Recovery**: Texas Instruments is experiencing a semiconductor recovery, with four out of five markets in recovery, except for the automotive market which is lagging but expected to improve [4][5] - **Market Performance**: The personal electronics market is recovering, with data centers showing the fastest growth at approximately 50%, returning to 2022 levels [5][11] - **Industrial Market**: The industrial sector is recovering at a slower pace, with most sectors still 20% to 40% below previous peaks, influenced by cautious capital investment from customers [6][10] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is experiencing a shallow correction, with growth expected due to increased content per vehicle, particularly in ADAS and electrification [48][50] Financial Performance - **Q2 Growth**: Texas Instruments reported a mid-teens growth of 15-16% year-over-year and a sequential growth of 9% in Q2 [8] - **China Market**: Growth in China was approximately 20% sequentially, indicating strong demand despite geopolitical tensions [9][46] - **Free Cash Flow Focus**: The company prioritizes free cash flow per share as a key performance metric, with a target of $8 to $9 in free cash flow per share by 2026 [19][25] Strategic Initiatives - **Capacity and Inventory Management**: Texas Instruments has built a strong inventory position and is investing in capacity ahead of demand to respond to market fluctuations [14][15] - **U.S.-Centric Manufacturing**: The company is focusing on U.S.-based manufacturing to ensure dependable capacity and efficiency, with ongoing investments in Texas and Utah [27][29] - **Embedded Processing**: Texas Instruments aims to regain market share in embedded processing, with a focus on expanding its product portfolio and increasing contributions to free cash flow [37][38] Market Opportunities - **Industrial Automation**: There is significant potential in automation and robotics within the industrial sector, with ongoing investments to enhance efficiency [42][43] - **Data Centers**: The data center market is expected to grow rapidly, with Texas Instruments positioned to capture a larger share [11][12] - **Geopolitical Preparedness**: The company is preparing for various geopolitical scenarios, ensuring it can support customers globally, including in China [32][34] Pricing Strategy - **Pricing Dynamics**: Texas Instruments is adapting to market pricing changes, with a low single-digit decline in prices expected for the year, while maintaining competitive advantages across multiple sockets [51][52] Conclusion - Texas Instruments is navigating a complex semiconductor landscape with a focus on recovery across various markets, strategic investments in capacity and inventory, and a commitment to enhancing free cash flow. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in data centers, industrial automation, and automotive sectors while managing geopolitical risks effectively.

Summary of SG Micro (300661.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SG Micro - **Ticker**: 300661.SZ - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on signal chain IC and PMIC sectors Key Financial Highlights - **2Q25 Revenues**: Rmb1.0 billion, representing a **21% YoY** increase and a **30% QoQ** increase, which was **13% higher** than Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) [2][3] - **Net Income**: Rmb141 million, up **13% YoY** and **136% QoQ**, only **5% ahead** of GSe [2][3] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to **51.0%** in 2Q25, slightly above GSe of **50.4%**, but lower than **52.2%** in 2Q24 [2][3] - **Operating Margin**: **15.4%** in 2Q25, up from **5.9%** in 1Q25 [3] Product Performance - **Signal Chain Products**: Revenues increased by **29% YoY** in 1H25 [2] - **PMIC Products**: Revenues increased by **8% YoY** in 1H25 [2] - **Product Range**: SG Micro has approximately **5,900 ready-for-sale products**, with potential for expansion compared to over **80,000 products** from global leaders [9] Market Position and Strategy - **Competitive Strength**: SG Micro is viewed positively as a local analog leader, but faces uncertainties regarding the pace of ASP (Average Selling Price) and margin recovery due to ongoing competition [1][5] - **R&D Investment**: Continuous investment in R&D is expected to support new product launches, which include automotive-grade operational amplifiers, low noise operational amplifiers, and low power consumption temperature sensors [9][10] Earnings Revision and Forecast - **Earnings Estimates**: 2025E revenues raised by **2%** to Rmb4.216 billion, while EPS estimates for 2025-27E were adjusted down by **0%/2%/2%** due to higher operating expenses and tax rates [10][11] - **Target Price**: Raised to **Rmb87.0** from **Rmb78.3**, applying a **51x target P/E** multiple to 2026E EPS [12][19] Risks and Considerations - **Demand Fluctuations**: Risks include stronger or weaker demand for smartphones and consumer electronics [20] - **Competition**: The company faces potential challenges from domestic peers and the pace of new product launches [20] Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral, reflecting uncertainties in ASP and margin recovery despite positive growth indicators and strong product development pipeline [1][19]

Core Insights - Texas Instruments (TXN) is experiencing a revenue recovery after a slowdown in 2023 and 2024, with Q2 2025 revenues reaching $4.45 billion, a year-over-year growth of 16.4, driven by analog and embedded processing segments [1][10] Group 1: Market Performance - TXN is benefiting from broad industrial demand, AI-driven data center growth, and a rebound in China, contributing to a robust global semiconductor market with an 18.8% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $167.7 billion in Q1 2025 [2] - In Q2 2025, TXN's automotive market grew mid-single digits year-over-year, personal electronics grew around 25%, enterprise systems grew about 40%, and communications equipment grew more than 50% [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Broadcom and Analog Devices are also seeing growth, with Broadcom's revenues increasing 20% year-over-year to $15 billion and Analog Devices' revenues rising 22.2% year-over-year to $2.64 billion in Q2 2025 [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Federal incentives from the CHIPS Act are aiding TXN's long-term strategy, with the company awarded up to $1.6 billion in funding, expected to yield total benefits of $7.5 billion to $9.5 billion over its lifetime, facilitating in-house manufacturing expansion [5][10] - TXN's forward price-to-sales ratio is 9.48X, lower than the industry average of 16.16X, indicating potential valuation attractiveness [11] Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TXN's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 7.7% for 2025 and 14.8% for 2026, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates [14]

Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya identifies three top diversified semiconductor picks, indicating a near bottom for the industry with industrial semiconductors leading the recovery, followed by auto semiconductors in late 2025 [1] Group 1: Top Picks and Performance - Arya's top picks in order of recovery potential are Analog Devices, Inc (ADI) with a $280 price target, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) at $235, and ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) at $60 [2] - Analog Devices has outperformed the PHLX Semiconductor Sector 23 out of the last 29 times the index declined over 10% since 2010, making it a strong defensive choice [3] - NXP Semiconductors has a relatively shallow sales peak-to-trough correction of -18%, indicating prudent execution and growth potential from product cycles [5] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Projections - Analog Devices' industrial sales are still 15-20% below trend based on fiscal 2018 and 2019 baselines, suggesting significant upside potential [4] - The company is expected to achieve 37% margins in fiscal 2025, significantly higher than peers' average of 17%, with potential for buybacks to double due to a new $10 billion authorization [4] - ON Semiconductor's estimates show a -15% sales decline for calendar 2025, which is below peers' range of -13% to +13%, but the stock is seen as compelling due to high leverage to improvements in Auto/EV sentiment [6] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Moves - Arya acknowledges risks related to tariffs and economic contraction but notes that diversified stocks tend to outperform during significant declines in the SOX index [2] - Allegro MicroSystems, Inc's potential deal could provide 4%-7% accretion by calendar 2027, enhancing the sensor portfolio [7] - Despite current downturns, ON Semiconductor's free cash flow percentage could improve to mid-20% from 17% in calendar 2024, indicating resilience [7]