Spring Market
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早盘直击|今日行情关注
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2026-01-14 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a healthy adjustment after a 17-day rally, with high-level sectors like commercial aerospace, communication, computer, and electronics undergoing corrections. This adjustment is seen as beneficial for the continuation of the spring market trend, with active trading volumes remaining above 3.6 trillion yuan [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to continue its development in January, driven by the growth narrative in technology and rising raw material prices, with AI industry investment being a key driver [1]. - The factors limiting further upward movement in A-shares are anticipated to gradually dissipate, allowing for a more favorable market environment [1]. Group 2: Hot Sectors - In January, the technology and raw material price increase sectors are expected to dominate, with a focus on future industries such as commercial aerospace, brain-computer interfaces, low-altitude economy, and semiconductors [2]. - The trend of AI hardware remains strong, with a significant increase in token usage for major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2]. - The domestic production of robots and their integration into daily life is a confirmed trend for 2026, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2]. - The semiconductor industry is moving towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. - The demand for new energy materials is rapidly increasing due to domestic and overseas energy storage needs, leading to supply shortages and price increases, a trend expected to continue until 2026 [2]. - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, and a fundamental turning point expected in 2025 [2].
中金:春季行情有望延续 当前时点仍重点关注大盘成长风格
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-07 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The improvement in market risk appetite in December suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on growth-oriented stocks [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - December saw an improvement in A-share market risk appetite, initiating a cross-year market trend with a growth-oriented style [1] - The synchronization of domestic and international liquidity easing has led to a general rise in commodity prices, influenced by a weaker dollar and domestic currency settlement contributing to RMB appreciation [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The changing industry capacity cycle and high prosperity in growth sectors are expected to enhance earnings expectations for A-share listed companies [1] - The central economic work conference has made positive statements regarding expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, with adjustments to "two new" subsidies and early approvals for "two heavy" construction projects [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from the spread of AI technology, including optical modules, cloud computing infrastructure, and applications in robotics, consumer electronics, and intelligent driving [2] - Certain sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from the global monetary order restructuring and supply-demand imbalances [2] - The cyclical market represented by the real estate chain and broad consumption remains favorable, with attention to chemicals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery, white goods, and commercial vehicles [2] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is a prevailing trend, emphasizing high dividend blue-chip companies based on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty [2] - The improvement in capital market risk appetite is expected to boost the performance of non-bank financial sectors, with a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [2]