1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. The profit of power - off - peak electricity for short - process steel decreased and fell into losses, leading to a reduction in production. The profit of long - process steel also fell into losses, but after the parade, the hot metal production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The overall supply remained high. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered rapidly, while the demand for rebar declined due to large warehouse receipt pressure. The overall inventory continued to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year. It is expected that the short - term steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1868 million tons (- 0.0188 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1424 million tons (- 0.105 million tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 35.2% (- 0.3%). The cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3,373 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 166.92 yuan/ton. The cost of off - peak electricity was about 3,208 yuan/ton (converted to theoretical weight), and the profit of off - peak electricity for the third - tier rebar in East China was - 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.0207 million tons (- 0.04 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.0536 million tons (+ 0.208 million tons). From January to July, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the incremental investment in domestic projects was insufficient. In July, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, and the overall demand for housing construction was weak. The manufacturing PMI contracted, and the new orders, production, and export data all declined. The production and export of Chinese automobiles in July increased year - on - year, but the industry profit continued to shrink. The production schedule of three major white goods in September decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to decline further in October. The initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a 39 - month high, and the initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range for the first time in three years [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory in steel mills decreased by 47,100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 185,700 tons, with a total increase of 138,600 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills increased by 9,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,200 tons, with a total decrease of 10,200 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products in steel mills decreased by 35,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 174,100 tons, with a total increase of 139,100 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that the rebar production will continue to decrease due to serious losses in both short - and long - process production, while the hot - rolled coil production will continue to resume as it remains profitable. The overall inventory will continue to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory starting to decline. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,220 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3,160 yuan (- 30 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,380 yuan (unchanged), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,310 yuan (unchanged) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric furnaces in East China was - 166 yuan (- 39 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 2 yuan (- 39 yuan) [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data - **US Data**: The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in August reached 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 was 263,000, higher than the expected 235,000 [31]. - **Chinese Data**: In August, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.995 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative retail sales were 14.741 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of - 5 billion yuan. The loans on the household side were - 48.93 billion yuan, and enterprise loans were 60 trillion yuan. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 1.6%, with a decline in growth rate month - on - month [31][38]. - **Egyptian Data**: Egypt launched safeguard measure investigations on imported steel billets, cold - rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and pre - painted sheets on September 10, 2025, and made a positive preliminary ruling on imported hot - rolled coils on September 10, suggesting the collection of temporary safeguard measure taxes from September 14, 2025, to April 1, 2026 [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Supply - The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.7% (- 0.5%) [56]. - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2514 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.109 million tons [62]. 3.4.2 Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons, and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.2616 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.208 million tons [65]. - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points, while that of housing construction projects was 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [74]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, the steel exports were 9.836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.158 million tons. The high - frequency data in August showed that direct steel exports remained high, but the export profit shrank recently [77]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The overall inventory situation showed that the rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while the hot - rolled coil inventory started to decline. The total rebar inventory and its breakdown into social and steel mill inventories, as well as the total hot - rolled coil inventory and its breakdown, are presented in the relevant graphs [82][84].