ab 24 November 2025 Uranium is the commodity fuelling the nuclear renaissance. As a high energy-density, high baseload & low emission fuel source, uranium and nuclear energy have re-emerged at the nexus of growing electrification demand vs decarbonisation; with strong policy impetus and significant anticipated growth in nuclear power generation, we see a paradigm shift in the structural demand outlook for uranium that would drive a meaningful price upcycle. [More on uranium & the nuclear fuel cycle] Muted c ...

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

Summary of Container Shipping Global Primer: 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping industry, analyzing seven container shipping equities, with six rated as Underweight due to challenging supply and demand dynamics [2][11]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Capacity Adjustments**: The global container supply/demand model has been updated, with demand growth for 2026/27/28 revised down by -30/-100/-200 basis points to a 3.0% run rate, aligning closely with GDP growth expectations [4][9]. - **Supply Growth**: Effective supply growth is projected to increase from approximately 4% to 6% for 2026-2028 due to new orders. A return to Red Sea sailings in 1H26 is anticipated, but any earlier resumption could worsen overcapacity, potentially driving effective supply growth above 10% [5][119]. - **Freight Rates**: Freight rates are expected to decline further, following a temporary boost from General Rate Increases (GRI) attempts by carriers [5][11]. Long-term Trends - **Reshoring of Supply Chains**: The report highlights a shift towards reshoring, which is expected to reduce reliance on long-distance sea freight and increase demand for road freight as supply chains shorten [10][9]. - **Market Segmentation**: While some segments will continue to depend on global supply chains, the overall growth rate, particularly for long-distance shipping, is expected to slow, benefiting shorter-haul modes like trucks and rail [10][9]. Financial Outlook - **Equity Valuation**: Despite low price-to-book (P/B) multiples averaging 0.7x across the global container equity coverage, the report warns of downside risks to freight rates and earnings. The average price targets imply a -24% downside [11][134]. - **Company Ratings**: Six companies are rated Underweight (Maersk, COSCO Shipping Holding, Orient Overseas, Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK, Kawasaki Kisen), with one rated Equal-weight (SITC) [11][134]. Market Performance - **Container Trade Volumes**: Year-to-date global container trade volumes have increased by 4.7%, but growth rates are moderating, with a decline observed in Asia to North America routes, down -3.1% year-over-year [58][61]. - **Divergence in Trade Routes**: There is a notable divergence in container flows, with volumes from Asia to North America decreasing by -7% to -11%, while volumes to Europe have increased by over 10% [61][58]. Risks and Considerations - **Overcapacity**: The persistent oversupply in the market is a significant concern, with supply additions expected to outpace demand growth through 2027 [115][119]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with many equities already consensus underweights, reflecting the challenging fundamentals of the industry [9][11]. Conclusion - The container shipping industry faces significant challenges in the coming years, with supply growth outpacing demand and freight rates under pressure. The shift towards reshoring and changing trade routes may alter the landscape, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to persistent overcapacity and economic uncertainties.

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,200 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, driven by easing US-China tensions and supply setbacks [1][2] - Year-to-date, copper has increased by over 25%, positioning it for its best performance since 2017 [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Major mining disruptions in Chile, Africa, and Indonesia have significantly impacted global copper supplies [2][6] - The global copper market is projected to face its most severe deficit in over 20 years by 2026, as American inventories are effectively stranded [5] Group 3: Trade Policies and Market Dynamics - US tariff policies have caused price distortions, with traders previously importing large quantities of copper into the US in anticipation of proposed levies [4] - The decision to exempt commodity-grade copper from tariffs has led to increased demand in the US, further straining supply for other markets [4][5] Group 4: Production Issues - The copper industry has faced significant production challenges in 2025, with major incidents reported by Freeport McMoRan Inc, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, and Codelco [6] - Global annual copper production is expected to contract for the first time since the pandemic began, according to CRU [7]

Core Insights - The copper market is on the verge of a significant bull run, driven by both technical and fundamental factors, indicating a shift in how copper is priced and perceived [1][2][3] Technical Analysis - Copper is breaking out of a three-year ascending triangle pattern, suggesting the continuation of an upward trend that began in 2020 [3] - A golden cross has formed on the long-term chart, indicating a lasting shift in momentum, with a target price of approximately $7.31 per pound, representing nearly 40% upside potential [4] - The copper market is showing bullish MACD divergences against major equity benchmarks, indicating a potential change in market leadership [8][9] Market Positioning - Open interest in copper futures has surged by 26%, from 179,801 contracts in 2022 to 227,318 in 2025, reflecting increased trader confidence [13] - Managed Money long positions in copper futures have increased by 46%, while short positions have decreased by nearly 60%, indicating a decisive bullish sentiment among professional traders [16] - Retail traders are also aligning with this trend, with long exposure up 24% and shorts down 35%, suggesting a growing optimism in the market [18] ETF Inflows - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has seen $668 million in net inflows over three months, indicating strong institutional interest in copper [21] - The U.S. Copper Index Fund has attracted $134 million in inflows over six months, reflecting a desire for direct exposure to copper [24] - The Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF has also seen $8 million in inflows, suggesting that confidence in the copper market is spreading to smaller, more speculative investments [28] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Energy Agency projects a significant supply-demand imbalance, with global copper demand expected to reach 31.3 million tons by 2030, while supply is only projected at 23.1 million tons, resulting in an 8 million ton deficit [33] - By 2040, demand is projected to hit 34.1 million tons, while supply could drop to 15 million tons, creating a 19 million ton gap [34] - The increasing demand for copper is driven by its essential role in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and smart grids, while supply constraints are exacerbated by falling ore grades and regulatory challenges [35][36] Market Implications - A confirmed breakout in copper prices could lead to a re-rating across base metals and mining equities, particularly those linked to electrification and grid infrastructure [38] - Higher copper prices are essential for meeting global renewable energy and electric vehicle targets, as current supply levels are insufficient [39] - Copper is positioned to reclaim its role as an inflation hedge, making it an attractive asset for investors seeking to protect against currency debasement [40] Conclusion - The evidence suggests that copper is entering a long-term, secular bull market driven by real scarcity and demand, positioning it as a cornerstone of future global growth [43][44]

Core Insights - The silver market in India is experiencing significant disruptions due to strong seasonal demand and a supply shortage, leading to erratic price behavior and a plunge in imports [1][5] - Investment managers in India have begun suspending silver purchases for clients due to dangerous market conditions, indicating potential ongoing issues in the market [2] - Two major fund houses, Kotak Mutual Fund and UTI Asset Management, have paused new investments in their Silver ETF Funds due to domestic silver premiums trading 8 to 10% above global prices, highlighting severe supply/demand imbalances [3][4] Market Dynamics - The upcoming Diwali holiday is expected to increase demand for silver jewelry and products, while industrial demand is also rising due to the clean energy boom, creating competition for silver [7] - The combination of high demand and limited supply is driving prices higher, with the effect magnified by the current market conditions [8]

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a downbeat performance last week, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.3%, the Dow edging lower by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipping by 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss in four weeks for both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 [1] Inflation Data - August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed core PCE rising at an annual rate of 2.9%, while the all-items index recorded a 2.7% year-over-year increase and a 0.3% monthly gain, reinforcing expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end [2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan reported a consumer sentiment index of 55.1 for September, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 55.4, indicating steady sentiment among households with larger stock holdings [3] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% in Q2 of 2025, an upward revision from the previously reported 3.3% growth, driven by stronger consumer spending after a 0.6% decline in Q1 [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve enacted its first rate cut of 2025 in September, with an 87.7% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in the upcoming October meeting [6] Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 30% to 100% on various imported goods, effective October 1, with exemptions for drugmakers building manufacturing plants in the U.S. [7] Commodity Performance - Platinum prices surged, with the GraniteShares Platinum Trust and abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF both up 12%, driven by supply-demand imbalances and declining mine output [9] - Palladium prices rose by 10.6% due to supply crunches and increased industrial demand, influenced by geopolitical tensions [11] - The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF increased by 10.3% following reports of potential U.S. government intervention in Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass mine [13] - The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF rose by 10.2%, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions [14]

Core Insights - Companies positioned advantageously amid supply-demand imbalances are likely to capture significant value creation, as they can gatekeep broader megatrends [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The company does not necessarily need to rely on complex analysis, as fundamental financial ratios and metrics often provide clearer insights [1] - The company maintains a strong focus on market trends, particularly in the tech sector, indicating a strategic emphasis on growth areas [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The article highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, suggesting that companies that can navigate supply-demand imbalances are better positioned for success [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 FY 2025, Carpenter Technology generated $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase from FY 2024 and a 10% increase from the previous quarter [6][15][25] - The adjusted operating margin for the SAO segment reached 30.5%, up from 25.2% a year ago and 29.1% in the prior quarter [6][7][41] - The company reported $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter, contributing to a total of $287.5 million for the fiscal year [7][20][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The SAO segment achieved $167 million in operating income, a 19% year-over-year increase and a 10% sequential increase [7][17] - PEP segment net sales were $97.1 million, down 5% year-over-year but operating income improved to $11.7 million from $10.6 million a year ago [18][19] - Sales in the aerospace and defense market increased 3% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, with engine sales up 5% sequentially [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in the energy end-use market increased 27% sequentially and 22% year-over-year, driven by demand from power generation customers [12][13] - Medical sales were up 6% sequentially but down 16% compared to the record prior year fourth quarter [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Carpenter Technology aims to achieve $660 million to $700 million in adjusted operating income for FY 2026, representing a 26% to 33% increase over FY 2025 [32][41] - The company is focused on expanding its brownfield capacity, with a $400 million project underway to enhance production capabilities [22][38] - The strategic focus remains on high-margin markets such as aerospace, medical, and energy, with a commitment to innovation and customer solutions [33][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing demand across aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets, anticipating continued growth [13][34] - The company highlighted the importance of maintaining operational efficiency through preventive maintenance to support long-term growth [29][72] - Management noted that the supply-demand imbalance in the industry remains favorable, supporting pricing power [49][50] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with $664.4 million in total liquidity, including $315.5 million in cash [22][23] - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19.7%, lower than anticipated due to discrete tax benefits [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Lead times and pricing expectations - Management indicated that lead times for jet engines remain extended and pricing actions are expected to continue as a tailwind due to a significant supply-demand gap [47][49][51] Question: Initial EBIT guidance for FY 2026 - Management confirmed that the EBIT guidance was approached conservatively, ensuring a realistic target based on internal assessments [56] Question: Orders supporting aerospace and defense volume acceleration - Management noted aggressive pulls on the defense side and positive discussions with aerospace customers, indicating a potential reacceleration in volumes [58][62] Question: Urgent requests in defense versus regular orders - Management explained that defense orders are historically uneven and dependent on various factors, but recent clarity in the defense budget suggests elevated order levels [69][70] Question: Power generation revenue growth - Management confirmed significant year-over-year growth in power generation revenues, highlighting its strategic importance [65][75] Question: Further mix gains in FY 2026 - Management expects continued growth in aerospace and medical markets, with a strong focus on innovation to drive mix improvements [81][86]

Core Insights - The lithium industry continues to face significant challenges, with major producers like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium reporting substantial losses and struggling with profitability due to low lithium prices and oversupply [3][9][19] Company Performance - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan ($41.76 million) for the first half of 2025, which is an improvement from a 760 million yuan loss in the same period of 2024, but still indicates ongoing financial difficulties [3][4] - The company's expected loss, excluding non-recurring items, is projected to be between 500 million and 950 million yuan for the first half of 2025, significantly wider than the 160 million yuan loss reported in the previous year [4][10] - Investment gains from the disposal of energy storage projects contributed to a narrowing of the overall net loss, but these gains are not related to Ganfeng's core lithium mining and production business [5] Market Conditions - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China was 64,950 yuan per ton in mid-July, down 17.6% from the start of the year and nearly 90% from the peak price of 580,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 [11][12] - Oversupply in the lithium market, driven by increased production from new mining projects, has led to weak prices, while demand growth from electric vehicles is slowing [12][19] - Current spot prices are nearing the cost floor for many small and medium-sized producers, with production costs estimated between 50,000 and 60,000 yuan per ton [14] Competitive Landscape - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit ranging from nil to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025, recovering from a significant loss of 5.21 billion yuan a year earlier, but its operating profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to be much smaller [7][8] - Both Ganfeng and Tianqi are struggling with profitability, relying on factors outside their core lithium businesses to achieve any semblance of financial recovery [9][19] Investor Sentiment - Ganfeng's shares fell over 7% following its profit warning, reflecting investor surprise at the extent of the losses, although the shares are still up 19.7% year-to-date [16] - Long-term optimism remains as Ganfeng's shares have rebounded from around HK$19 to nearly HK$26, driven by hopes of a price bottom and policy support for EVs [17] - However, investment banks express skepticism about the sustainability of this rebound, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an "underweight" rating and UBS assigning a "sell" rating [18][19]