当美光科技CEO桑杰·梅赫罗特拉在2025年12月轻描淡写地说出"2026年HBM产量已全部售罄"时，全球半导体产业链的神经被彻底点燃。进入2026年， 一场由生成式AI驱动的"内存争夺战"正以前所未有的烈度席卷整个行业——一边是三星、SK海力士、美光等存储巨头利润暴增、股价飙升；另一边， 智能手机与PC厂商却因通用存储器短缺而被迫下调出货目标。繁荣与焦虑并存，成为2026年半导体市场的主旋律。 来源：国际投行研究报告 1. 对于虽然国补还在，某些企业还在降价出销！但在 AI 浪潮之下， HBM 成新石油，手机已经被内存厂商"看不起"，被挤出了市场，他们的股票下 跌也刚刚开始。 2. 这也理解为什么长鑫存储要快速募资的背景！倒逼的！ | AI相关半导体和内存 | | | | 供应不足←平衡→供应过剩 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 持续短缺 | | 4 | 网 | 企 | ਡ | | | 请专家对供需动向按照1分 | | | | | | | | (供应过剩)~5分(供应不足) | | 25年 | | 26年 | | | | 作出评价,根据 ...

Underinvestment in the energy sector is a big reason to bet on oil, says Kevin Muir. - Getty Images Roughly a year ago, U.S. crude was marching toward $80, but it’s been barrels down a hill since then. Based on a recent poll of dozens of analysts and economists by Reuters, the average forecast for oil prices CL00 sits at $58 a barrel for 2026, not far off current levels, amid an ongoing a supply/demand imbalance. Most Read from MarketWatch But last year also brought commodity surprises, such soaring pr ...

The January Aluminium prices have rallied nearly 23% this year amid an overall positive sentiment for the metal pack due to demand-supply risks.Commenting on the current trends, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at “South32 Limited, a major mining and metals company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, has recently announced that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to its inability to secure a new power agreement. The shutdown is expe ...

A surge in the price of silver to record highs this month has prompted a warning from Elon Musk that manufacturers could suffer the consequences.Silver has risen sharply during December, part of a precious metals rally that also pushed gold and platinum to record levels on Boxing Day.Analysts have attributed the jump in prices to expectations of US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, leading to increased demand for hard assets that protect against inflation and currency debasement.New restric ...

Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a slowdown due to weaker growth in key regions and falling prices, with the Permian Basin's dominance no longer sufficient for national expansion [1] - A supply-demand imbalance is expected to cap oil prices, with WTI crude projected to average $51 per barrel in 2026 amid rising global inventories [2] - U.S. oil firms are shifting focus from output expansion to capital discipline and shareholder returns, influenced by lower prices and soft global demand growth [3] - The current market setup is fragile, with risks of worsening oversupply and potential future shortages due to sustained underinvestment [4] Group 1 - The slowdown in the oil market is attributed to weaker growth in key regions and falling prices, with infrastructure limits and tighter capital discipline affecting new investments [1] - Older basins like Eagle Ford and Bakken are declining due to reduced drilling activity and natural depletion, while offshore gains remain modest [1] Group 2 - The EIA forecasts that WTI crude oil will average $51 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a surplus environment with global inventories exceeding the five-year average [2] - Producers are facing tighter margins and falling cash flows as supply grows faster than demand, leading to a cautious investment climate [2][3] Group 3 - U.S. oil firms are prioritizing capital discipline and shareholder returns over output expansion, as lower prices discourage investment in higher-cost regions [3] - Global demand growth remains soft, with efficiency gains and reduced transportation fuel usage dampening the outlook [3] Group 4 - The oil market is under pressure from rising inventories, flat U.S. production, and cautious spending behavior across the industry, creating a fragile market setup [4] - Lack of coordination among producers could exacerbate oversupply, while sustained underinvestment raises the risk of future shortages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with silver reaching an all-time high and gold approaching its historical peak, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver has surged to a historical high of $75 per ounce, marking a 150% increase this year, particularly accelerating since October due to a historic short squeeze [2][3][10]. - Gold is also performing well, trading above $4500 per ounce and reaching a peak of $4530 per ounce, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela [5][8]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - Economist Jim Rickards predicts that gold could reach $10,000 and silver could hit $200 by 2026, citing sustained demand from central banks and institutional investors as key drivers [2][9][10]. - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is providing additional support for precious metal prices, as a low-interest environment typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold and silver [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The sharp rise in silver prices is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance in the physical delivery market, with a significant disparity between paper silver and physical silver [9][10]. - Institutional investor demand, including sovereign wealth funds and endowment funds, is expected to increase, further pushing up prices as countries diversify away from potentially confiscable assets [9][10].

Wmax对全球白银实物枢纽库存保持高频监测，其中中国市场库存变化堪称核心风向标。2025年中国白银出口创历史纪录后，上海黄金交易所与上海期货交 易所可追踪库存已跌至十年低位。作为全球白银核心流转枢纽，中国库存的大幅下滑迅速传导至全球市场——而这一变化，恰好发生在白银市场连续第五年 结构性短缺的关键阶段。当前地上白银库存持续消耗，COMEX白银库存同步降至多年低位，且Wmax通过全球主要银矿产能摸排确认，多数新产能释放窗 口需推迟至2027-2028年之后。据此Wmax判断，白银供应紧张并非短期脉冲，而是未来数年的常态基线。 Wmax通过对高景气产业用银场景的实地调研与数据核验，测算得出2025年光伏行业白银消耗量达1.957亿盎司，刷新历史峰值；叠加电动汽车、高效半导 体、5G基站及人工智能数据中心的庞大电力配套需求，白银已成为少数需求曲线逐年陡峭化的工业金属。更关键的是，Wmax产业端验证确认，白银在上述 高附加值领域暂无有效替代品——任何替代尝试要么以失败告终，要么导致终端产品性能显著折损。在Wmax供需平衡模型中，"需求持续攀升+供应物理性 瓶颈"的格局，正是资产价格获得长期结构性支撑的核心逻辑。 作为 ...

Summary of Uranium Market Research Industry Overview - **Industry**: Uranium and Nuclear Energy - **Context**: The report discusses the current state and future outlook of the uranium market, emphasizing its role in the nuclear renaissance driven by increasing electrification demand and decarbonization efforts [2][21][22]. Key Points Current Market Dynamics - **Contracting Cycle**: The uranium market is experiencing a contracting cycle where utilities are slow to contract despite rising uncovered requirements. This has led producers to withhold supply until there is sufficient long-term demand at higher prices [3][6]. - **Physical Trusts**: Physical uranium trusts have been significant demand drivers, accumulating inventory and tightening the market, which has resulted in spot price spikes [3][6]. Demand Forecast - **Growth Projections**: Uranium consumption is expected to grow by over 50% by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% per year. The growth will be primarily driven by new capacity in China and India [4][58]. - **Long-term Demand**: The demand growth is anticipated to accelerate to 4.9% CAGR from 2030 to 2035 due to reactor extensions and refurbishments [4][58]. Supply Constraints - **Geological Concentration**: Approximately 75% of global uranium production comes from three countries: Kazakhstan (39%), Canada (24%), and Namibia (12%). This concentration poses risks to supply stability [5][63]. - **Production Growth**: After a decade of flat production, mine supply is forecasted to grow at 6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, but this will slow to 2% CAGR from 2030 to 2035 due to the limited number of new projects coming online [5][6]. Market Deficit - **Projected Deficit**: The uranium market is expected to remain in a deficit from 2025 to 2029, with demand growth outpacing supply into the 2030s, leading to a persistent widening deficit [6][80]. Price Catalysts - **Current Prices**: Uranium prices are around $80/lb, with potential catalysts for price increases including government investigations into critical minerals and a possible inventory restocking cycle [11][40]. - **Long-term Contracts**: The report highlights that utilities are currently holding significant uncovered uranium requirements, which could drive prices higher once long-term contracting rates exceed consumption [11][45]. Geopolitical and Policy Influences - **Government Policies**: The report notes that geopolitical factors and government policies are crucial in shaping the uranium market, with a strong push for nuclear energy as a clean energy source [21][22][40]. - **COP28 Commitments**: The commitment to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 has created urgency for policy shifts and private sector investments in nuclear energy [21][22]. Emerging Technologies - **Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)**: There is growing interest in SMRs, which could provide reliable electricity solutions and add incremental demand for uranium, although their deployment is expected to be more of a medium-term innovation [85][86]. Additional Insights - **Demand Geography**: The demand for uranium is geographically diverse, with the US, France, and China being the largest consumers. However, demand is expected to shift towards China and India, which are aggressively expanding their nuclear fleets [63][71]. - **Utilities' Behavior**: Utilities tend to prioritize security of supply over price, leading to relatively inelastic demand for uranium [55][56]. This comprehensive analysis of the uranium market highlights the interplay between supply constraints, demand growth, and the influence of geopolitical factors, setting the stage for potential investment opportunities in the sector.

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

Summary of Container Shipping Global Primer: 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping industry, analyzing seven container shipping equities, with six rated as Underweight due to challenging supply and demand dynamics [2][11]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - **Capacity Adjustments**: The global container supply/demand model has been updated, with demand growth for 2026/27/28 revised down by -30/-100/-200 basis points to a 3.0% run rate, aligning closely with GDP growth expectations [4][9]. - **Supply Growth**: Effective supply growth is projected to increase from approximately 4% to 6% for 2026-2028 due to new orders. A return to Red Sea sailings in 1H26 is anticipated, but any earlier resumption could worsen overcapacity, potentially driving effective supply growth above 10% [5][119]. - **Freight Rates**: Freight rates are expected to decline further, following a temporary boost from General Rate Increases (GRI) attempts by carriers [5][11]. Long-term Trends - **Reshoring of Supply Chains**: The report highlights a shift towards reshoring, which is expected to reduce reliance on long-distance sea freight and increase demand for road freight as supply chains shorten [10][9]. - **Market Segmentation**: While some segments will continue to depend on global supply chains, the overall growth rate, particularly for long-distance shipping, is expected to slow, benefiting shorter-haul modes like trucks and rail [10][9]. Financial Outlook - **Equity Valuation**: Despite low price-to-book (P/B) multiples averaging 0.7x across the global container equity coverage, the report warns of downside risks to freight rates and earnings. The average price targets imply a -24% downside [11][134]. - **Company Ratings**: Six companies are rated Underweight (Maersk, COSCO Shipping Holding, Orient Overseas, Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK, Kawasaki Kisen), with one rated Equal-weight (SITC) [11][134]. Market Performance - **Container Trade Volumes**: Year-to-date global container trade volumes have increased by 4.7%, but growth rates are moderating, with a decline observed in Asia to North America routes, down -3.1% year-over-year [58][61]. - **Divergence in Trade Routes**: There is a notable divergence in container flows, with volumes from Asia to North America decreasing by -7% to -11%, while volumes to Europe have increased by over 10% [61][58]. Risks and Considerations - **Overcapacity**: The persistent oversupply in the market is a significant concern, with supply additions expected to outpace demand growth through 2027 [115][119]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious, with many equities already consensus underweights, reflecting the challenging fundamentals of the industry [9][11]. Conclusion - The container shipping industry faces significant challenges in the coming years, with supply growth outpacing demand and freight rates under pressure. The shift towards reshoring and changing trade routes may alter the landscape, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to persistent overcapacity and economic uncertainties.