23 June 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker - High Frequency Trends Potentially Reveal Ebbing in China Surge US Tariff Impact Tracker – The directional uptick in inbound traffic from China to the US ebbed last week and in fact showed slight sequential downticks of -7% for vessels and -4% for TEU's, perhaps indicative that the China surge may be somewhat abbreviated or have less depth than some may have previously thought. That said, based on other data it is possible another ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

Tracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale: May 19th; Weekly Index Down Slightly, Scale Unchanged at '2' 2 1 10 Fully Open Fully Bottlenecked GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale Week of 5/19/2025 Scale is based solely off weekly metrics to give more granularity on high frequency data indications; see Appendix for scale that combines weekly and monthly metrics Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19 May 2025 | 4:09PM EDT +1(801)744-3761 | paul.x.stoddard@gs.com Goldman Sa ...