Oil prices rose on Monday, recouping part of last week's 4% slide, as concerns over potential disruptions from escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions outweighed lingering oversupply worries and the effect... ...

Oil from Lukoil PJSC’s share of a field in Iraq is continuing to flow to global markets, alleviating concerns about supply disruption in the wake of sanctions on the Russian energy giant. https://t.co/XjO809kmGy ...

Summary of Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) - **Ticker**: 2600 HK / 601600 CH Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Earnings**: Reported earnings of RMB 3.8 billion, representing an increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 90% year-on-year (y-o-y) [1] - **Sales Volume**: Both alumina and aluminum sales volumes rose slightly by 1% y-o-y [1] - **Alumina Prices**: Increased by 3% q-o-q but decreased by 20% y-o-y [1] - **Aluminum Prices**: Rose by 2% q-o-q and 6% y-o-y [1] - **Revenue**: Flat q-o-q, but gross profit improved significantly due to lower production costs, primarily from cheaper bauxite [1] - **SG&A Expenses**: Declined by 13% y-o-y due to effective cost control [1] Production and Cost Guidance - **Bauxite Production**: Guinea's Boffa mine is ramping up steadily, with a target of approximately 10% y-o-y production growth for 2025 and a self-sufficiency ratio of around 60% [2] - **Cost Advantage**: Estimated cost advantage of RMB 100 per ton for self-mined bauxite compared to imported ore [2] - **Cost Guidance**: - Aluminum all-in cost below RMB 15,000 per ton in 3Q25; electricity cost between RMB 0.44 and 0.45 per kWh [2] - Alumina cash cost below RMB 2,700 per ton in 3Q25, trending lower excluding bauxite [2] - **Capex**: Management revised capital expenditure guidance to RMB 15 billion for 2025 from a previous estimate of RMB 20 billion [2] Market Outlook - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: Expected to remain elevated through 4Q25 to 2026, while alumina prices may remain weak due to rising domestic and imported supply [2] - **Global Market Dynamics**: Favorable conditions due to supply disruptions at Century Aluminum's Nordural smelter in Iceland and South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique, combined with China's production ceiling of 45 million tons and low inventories [3] - **Policy Support**: "Anti-involution" production discipline is expected to reinforce price stability and profitability [3] Investment Recommendations - **Rating**: Maintain Buy rating on Chalco's H/A shares, viewing the company as a key beneficiary of strong aluminum fundamentals and improving margins [4] - **Target Prices**: - Raised target price for H-share to HKD 11.40 from HKD 7.70, implying a 24% upside [4] - Raised target price for A-share to RMB 11.30 from RMB 10.50, implying a 20% upside [4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: Revised earnings estimates up by 18% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 14% for 2027 [19] - **EPS Projections**: Expected EPS of RMB 0.87 for 2025, RMB 1.03 for 2026, and RMB 1.05 for 2027 [7][20] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected demand from property completions - New regulations leading to higher production costs - Potential bauxite supply disruptions - Geopolitical risks related to overseas resource acquisitions [23] Additional Insights - **Coal Business**: Contributed approximately 4% of total revenue in 2024, primarily for energy security; no plans to increase investment in coal-related business as the company focuses on renewable energy [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Aluminum Corp of China, highlighting financial performance, market outlook, investment recommendations, and associated risks.

Market Trends - Copper is heading for its biggest weekly advance since April [1] - Gains are supported by supply disruptions, a weaker US dollar, and optimism about demand [1]

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].

Market Dynamics - Copper prices are stable, influenced by a new supply disruption in Peru and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1]

Market Trends & Demand - Global copper consumption exceeds 25 million metric tons per year, driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI data centers [1] - Clean energy and electrification are projected to double global copper demand by 2050 [3] - China consumes over half of the world's copper, but a weaker property market may slow demand [4] Price Volatility & Supply Issues - Copper prices experienced significant volatility in 2025 due to US tariffs, with a 13% jump on July 8th and a subsequent 25% drop on July 30th after policy amendment [2] - New mines can take decades to come online, and existing mines face disruptions, potentially leading to supply issues [4] - Tariffs and supply issues could continue to cause wild price swings in the second half of 2025 [4] Long-Term Outlook - Long-term copper demand is strong due to the energy transition and AI, but supply may struggle to keep up [5] - Supply constraints create uncertainty and price risks for copper [5] - Electric vehicles use three to four times as much copper as gasoline-powered cars [3]

Supply and Demand - The UK's top natural gas storage facility will shift from stockpiling to producing fuel this winter [1] - This shift removes an important buffer against potential supply disruptions for the country [1]

Oil Market Dynamics & Geopolitical Tensions - Trade tensions are adding uncertainty to the future of oil production [1] - OPEC nations decided to raise production [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, are a major concern [4] - Attacks on cargo ships by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea highlight potential supply shock risks [11] - Market has not reacted to potential supply shock, with oil prices around $68 [12] OPEC & UAE Strategy - OPEC aims for market stability, not targeting a specific price or volume [5] - UAE is ready to fill any supply gap resulting from disruptions like those involving Iran [4] - UAE emphasizes partnership with US shale producers, recognizing their importance in the market [5] Investment & Production - Continued investment in oil production is needed to satisfy future global economic requirements [6] - Baker Hughes rig counts are going down, potentially leading to lower output due to lower oil prices [8][9] - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNO) is actively investing in the US, including gas and renewable energy sectors [6][7] - ADNO and the Carlile Group made an $18.8 billion bid for Santos, an Australian company with a significant presence in Alaska [7][8]

I guess if you take away the worst case scenario, that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. A couple of things to consider, though. One, Ali McCrossin RBC said over the weekend that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that, quote, The worst is behind us.Now, the other factor to consider here, irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not happen with Iran is the demand side. So there's been a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling by other countries within the West as well ...