Trina Chen +852-2978-2678 | trina.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Joy Zhang +852-2978-6545 | joy.x.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 % of respondents seeing declining MoM order book % of respondents seeing improving MoM order book China PMI 2020 ...

Copper prices hold steady as the market weighed a fresh supply disruption in Peru against the Fed’s path on interest rates https://t.co/aFChTfuBh3 ...

Copper's role in modern technology and electronic infrastructure has increased global consumption to above 25 million metric tonses per year. Metal is now the third most used after iron and aluminum. Much of the demand is driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AIdriven data centers.The price though has been wildly volatile in 2025. New 50% US tariffs announced on July 8th had pushed copper prices to record highs, including a 13% jump in one day, driven by fears of a supply disruption. But on Jul ...

The UK’s top natural gas storage facility will be back to producing and not stockpiling fuel this winter, a shift that leaves the country without an important buffer against potential supply disruptions https://t.co/XOx6NbjjkL ...

Well, the future of oil production is at a critical crossroads. As of now, trade tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty. OPEC's bi-annual seminar is underway in Vienna, Austria.And this comes a few days after a group of OPEC nations decided to raise production. Our Brian Sullivan is in Vienna for that meeting. Brian, yeah, I love the fact that Mike Wilson was just talking about how oil prices are down year-over-year.It's such an inflationary aspect. People say, "Well, why do you talk about it so m ...

I guess if you take away the worst case scenario, that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. A couple of things to consider, though. One, Ali McCrossin RBC said over the weekend that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that, quote, The worst is behind us.Now, the other factor to consider here, irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not happen with Iran is the demand side. So there's been a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling by other countries within the West as well ...

Geopolitical Risks & Market Impact - U S airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have heightened geopolitical risks, leading to concerns about potential Iranian retaliation and supply disruptions in the Middle East [1][2][5][16] - Oil prices initially spiked nearly 6%, but gains were later pared down to 1 4%, with Brent crude trading at $78 per barrel, reflecting market uncertainty regarding Iran's response [4][16] - The market is focused on whether Iran will disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for approximately 1/5 of the world's crude oil output [1][17] - Risk-off sentiment is observed across equity markets, with European futures down by 0 5% and similar trends in Asia, while the U S dollar gains amid concerns about escalation [2][57] - Gold prices are slightly weaker, down 0 2%, despite its traditional safe-haven status, indicating the primary focus remains on oil price volatility and potential retaliation [5][58] Potential Iranian Responses - Iran reserves the right to protect its people and sovereignty, with the possibility of a targeted response, such as striking U S military sites within the GCC [9][11] - Disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is another option, but it could be self-destructive for Iran's oil exports [12] - Iran may consider leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty to signal its resolve to develop nuclear weapons [12] U S Objectives & International Reactions - The U S claims the strikes significantly set back Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, but independent analysis is pending [6] - The U S asserts the mission was a precise attack on nuclear sites, not an attack on the Iranian people or a regime change move [6][31] - European leaders are calling for de-escalation and diplomacy, emphasizing that Iran should never be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons [50][51] - There are concerns among the international community about whether the U S airstrikes constitute a preemptive or preventative strike under international law [52][53] Long-Term Implications & Analysis - The location of 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in Iran is unknown, raising concerns about the effectiveness of military action alone in eliminating the nuclear threat [15][37] - The debate continues regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with some arguing it capped Iran's nuclear ambitions, while others criticize its expiration date and failure to address ballistic missiles and terrorism [41][42] - Some analysts suggest the U S should support regime change in Iran, but emphasize it must come from the Iranian people, not external intervention [44][45][46]

I want to start with the worst case scenario, something that most analysts are saying isn't really likely. Let's say there is a complete disruption to Iranian oil supply and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. How high does the oil price rise.Morning. Yeah, I think fair to say that's not a base case, but if you're talking about really extreme scenarios, we've considered a case where even if only very temporary, oil prices could get, for example, above $200 a barrel. And if you're just looking at historic rel ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices initially surged, with WTI jumping 14%, but retreated as no actual supply disruptions occurred [2] - Market focus shifts to Iran's response, which is expected to dictate oil's next move [2] - Iran exports approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day, representing about 15% of global supply [3] - A wider conflict could disrupt oil supply in Saudi Arabia or Iraq [3] - Potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could impact 20% of global oil flow [3] Natural Gas Market - European natural gas prices increased by 5% [4] - The Strait of Hormuz is the sole export route for Qatar and the UAE [4] - Qatar and the UAE together account for approximately 20% of global LNG supply [4] Risk Assessment - CIBC private wealth indicates a rising probability of a low probability scenario as the situation evolves [4] - Prices cannot sustain current levels unless barrels actually come off the market [2]