V i e w p o i n t | 10 Jul 2025 01:27:04 ET │ 10 pages For the upcoming July Politburo meeting (held on the 30th last year), we keep our expectations low on cyclical policy given the steady growth backdrop. Policymakers could confirm a wait-and-see mode while keeping the door open for incremental mini support in 25H2E, especially for potential ~RMB500bn quasi-fiscal stimulus. Anti-involution (or nei juan) initiatives could be underscored again with further guidance. The Politburo could also announce the dec ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on inflation forecasts while awaiting further policy actions [3][19]. Core Insights - The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, marking a surprise after four consecutive negative readings, which may indicate potential reflation in China [3][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation deepened unexpectedly, highlighting a divergence in price trends among different sectors, particularly between auto and steel prices [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms (SSR2.0) and the role of demand in shaping inflation expectations [19]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI reading for June was +0.0% YoY, compared to a prior reading of -0.1% YoY, with a sequential change of -0.1% MoM [3][5]. - Significant price increases were noted in the "other goods and services" category, which includes jewelry, with a +8.1% YoY change [5][8]. - Core inflation rose by +0.7% YoY, with core goods prices increasing by 0.9% YoY [5][19]. PPI Analysis - The PPI reading was -3.6% YoY, contrasting with market expectations of a narrower contraction [4][19]. - The PPI for the auto sector showed stabilization, while ferrous metals and non-metallic minerals reported negative changes, indicating a mixed outlook for SSR2.0 candidates [4][19]. Supply Side Reform Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming Politburo meeting and action plans from relevant ministries will be crucial for future inflation trajectories [19]. - The divergence in price trends between sectors like steel and auto underscores the need for targeted demand-side policies [19].

V i e w p o i n t | 19 May 2025 02:16:28 ET │ 12 pages China Economics Is the Exports-Driven Growth Model Back Amid Tariffs? CITI'S TAKE China's economy held up in April despite escalating trade tensions. The real growth rate could have been trailing at >5.0%YoY. The past exports-driven growth model appears to be back, at least for now. The production side was stronger than the demand side, and external demand outpaced domestic demand – both retail sales and fixed-asset investment weakened more than expecte ...