市场洞察 - Marquee 市场洞察|市场|商品 GS 成品油追踪——夏季汽油价格上涨 GS 精炼产品追踪器： 交易理念：漫⻓的夏季 RBOB 破解： 总体⽽⾔：清洁产品供需平衡依然紧张，⽽⽣产激励措施将有利于中质馏分油（当原油供应限制 放松时）。市场对任何供应中断或需求意外（⽬前正处于旺季）的承受能⼒不⾜。 1/20 季节性表现强劲：过去10个7⽉中，RBOB裂解价差有7个出现上涨，平均上涨2美元/桶。历 史最⼤涨幅为8.1美元/桶，⽽最⼤跌幅为3.2美元/桶——⻛险回报状况良好。 产量转换à RBOB 热能极其混乱，与过去 10 年相⽐处于区间底部。我们认为这主要是由于 原油供应限制à尽管减产解除，但 OPEC+ 的重质酸性原油出⼝尚未回升，⽽是被⽤于中东国 内燃料燃烧（旺季）。因此，由于替代原料供应有限，依赖于重质原油的馏分油产量受到限 制。⽬前较轻的原油供应导致产量落后于⽣产激励。如果我们看到进⼊美国的中质和重质 酸性原油增加，炼油⼚将能够转向最⼤化馏分油产量。这种转变将减少汽油产量，收紧 RBOB 供应并⽀持裂解价差。 与三年历史相⽐， 定位处于第 11 个百分位 飓⻛季节à我们正处于⼀年中飓⻛ ...

ab 23 June 2025 Global Research Global Oil and Gas Global oil and refining markets outlook Equities Global Oil Companies, Major Henri Patricot, CFA Analyst henri.patricot@ubs.com +33-14-888 3033 Anna Kishmariya Analyst anna.kishmariya@ubs.com +44-20-7568 7999 Nayoung Kim Analyst nayoung.kim@ubs.com +44-20-7568 4010 Joshua Stone Analyst joshua.stone@ubs.com +44-20-7901 5588 This report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitativ ...

June 17, 2025 04:01 AM GMT North American Energy | North America Navigating Geopolitical Risks & Stronger Oil WTI has rallied ~20% in June alongside rising geopolitical risks. Near-term strength could continue, but prices are biased lower in 2H25 absent supply disruption. Post recent moves, we revisit views across the Energy Sector. From here, we remain selective with a defensive bias & prefer gas over oil. Key Takeaways The Extel Survey is now open. We would greatly appreciate your support for the Joy.Golu ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates a potential pause in production increases and marginally lower prices in the second half of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook [5][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by an additional 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The total production increase from OPEC+ members will reach 1.37 million barrels per day (Mb/d) out of the intended 2.5 Mb/d over 18 months, achieving the production level initially targeted for early 2026 [5] - The market is expected to experience a surplus of 0.3 Mb/d in the third quarter of 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the additional production [3] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ members are set to add 411 kb/d in July, which was higher than the previously forecasted 138 kb/d [2] - The group has already implemented 1.37 Mb/d of the planned 2.5 Mb/d increase, indicating a significant ramp-up in production [5] Market Dynamics - The anticipated surplus in oil supply is projected to be 0.3 Mb/d in Q3 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in Q4 2025, which could lead to downward pressure on prices if production increases continue [3] - The report suggests that demand will peak between March and August, with a decline expected in September, further influencing price dynamics [5] Price Forecast - The base case scenario anticipates a pause in production increases and a slight decrease in oil prices to approximately $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 [5]

Summary of ONEOK (OKE) Fireside Chat - May 28, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: ONEOK (OKE) - **Industry**: Energy and Natural Gas Key Points and Arguments Commodity Price Impact - ONEOK is less affected by commodity price fluctuations compared to other companies, which can see cash flow changes of up to 40% with a $1 change in gas or a $10 change in oil prices [4][6] - Recent oil price declines have not led to a decrease in volume for ONEOK, indicating stability in their operations [4][6] Natural Gas Outlook - Natural gas production in the U.S. has increased from approximately 20 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2000-2007 to around 42 Tcf in 2024, driven by coal-to-gas conversions and LNG exports [8][9] - Current LNG export facilities are projected to increase capacity to 10 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, with potential future expansions [10] - The demand for natural gas is expected to grow due to factors such as artificial intelligence data centers and ongoing coal plant conversions [11] Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) and Petrochemicals - NGLs are primarily byproducts of crude oil and natural gas production, and their value is dependent on transportation to markets where they can be sold at higher prices [12][13] - The U.S. is expected to remain a significant supplier of ethane to petrochemical companies, with a notable portion being exported to China [18][20] Regulatory Environment - The current administration is actively seeking specific feedback from the industry to improve regulatory processes, which is seen as a positive change [22] - Tariff policies are viewed as volatile, but there is a growing understanding that they may not be permanent [23][24] Strategic Focus and Growth - ONEOK's strategy emphasizes brownfield expansions to reduce capital costs and enhance integration within their existing systems [26][27] - The company has divested non-integrated assets to focus on core business areas, which has allowed for better capital allocation [28] Financial Strategy - ONEOK aims for a balanced capital allocation strategy, prioritizing organic growth projects while maintaining a strong dividend policy [75][76] - The company targets a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of around 3.5 times, with plans for stock buybacks if excess cash is generated [78][79] Storage and Volatility Management - Storage capacity is seen as a critical component for managing the volatility of natural gas pricing, especially with increasing LNG exports [37][44] - ONEOK is expanding its storage capabilities, which are expected to provide opportunities in a volatile market [47][59] Customer Diversification - The company is shifting from a supply-push model to a demand-pull model, diversifying its customer base and reducing reliance on specific markets [51][52] Long-term Outlook - The Bakken region is expected to sustain production levels for decades, supported by advancements in drilling technology [54] - ONEOK anticipates continued growth in its core business, driven by synergies from recent acquisitions and ongoing demand for natural gas and NGLs [83][84] Additional Important Insights - The integration of various assets is a key focus for ONEOK, as it allows for better control over revenue streams and operational efficiencies [91][94] - The company is positioned well in the LNG market, with the U.S. being a significant player in global exports, particularly to Asia [71][72] This summary captures the essential insights from the ONEOK Fireside Chat, highlighting the company's strategic focus, market outlook, and financial strategies.

CINNO Research发文称，今年5月面板供需关系维持平衡状态，面板价格持续横盘，预计32"至85"主流面板价格与今年4月价格相比基本持平，分别为35美 元、67美元、97美元、121美元、173美元、231美元和312美元。随着面板厂产能动态优化能力持续提升，进一步巩固供需两端动态平衡格局，面板价格波动 收窄预期增强，预计二季度整体价格或将呈现平缓的运行态势。 | | Size & Resolution | | Technology | Apr.25' | May.25'(E) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz 60Hz | | LCD | $35.0 | $35.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $67.0 | $67.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD UD | LCD | $97.0 | $97.0 | | રે રે" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $121.0 | $121.0 | | ୧୮." | 60Hz | ud u | LCD | $173.0 | $173.0 | ...

May 4, 2025 10:00 PM GMT The Oil Manual Weaker Balances Ahead after OPEC Hike OPEC's quota revision came in higher than we had expected, and is likely a precursor for further supply increases in months ahead. This adds to the market surplus we already modelled for 2H25 and 2026. As a result, we lower our Brent forecasts by $5- 10/bbl. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: So far, the Brent price is following a trajectory similar to other key downturns; the current period arguably has most parallels to the downturn in 19 ...

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 04 May 2025 Iron ore Price resilience amidst global turmoil; maintain $100/t for 2025 Key takeaways from our iron ore sector review: 1) Global steel output has started the year relatively flat, with output down 0.4% in Q1 (China +0.6% / RoW -1.7%); following GDP growth cuts from our Economics Team, we now expect global steel production to fall 5Mt in 2025 from 20Mt growth previously (China unchanged at -1.5% YoY), 2) Iron ore supply has been disrupted through Q1 follow ...