Core Insights - Natural gas prices began 2026 on a weaker note due to warmer weather forecasts, lower-than-expected storage withdrawals, and strong U.S. production, which pressured prices despite strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand [1][4][9] Industry Overview - Natural gas futures experienced a weekly loss as traders reassessed winter heating demand, with the benchmark U.S. contract settling at $3.618 per million British thermal units, down from an early spike above $4 [3] - Warmer-than-normal forecasts for mid-January reduced expected heating demand, while a storage withdrawal of 38 billion cubic feet was below expectations, indicating a looser supply-demand balance [3] - U.S. LNG exports remained near record highs, with average feedgas flows to major export terminals reaching new peaks in December, highlighting the growth in overseas demand for U.S. gas [4] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to monitor natural gas-focused stocks such as EQT Corporation, Expand Energy, and Coterra Energy, which are more aligned with long-term supply and demand dynamics rather than short-term weather fluctuations [2][6] - The near-term outlook for natural gas is expected to be influenced by updated weather forecasts and storage reports, with colder conditions potentially tightening supply balances [5] Company Highlights - **EQT Corporation**: The leading natural gas producer in the U.S., with over 90% of its production/sales being natural gas. EQT has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of approximately 16.7% [7][8] - **Expand Energy**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. post-merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The company is well-positioned to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG exports and other trends, with a projected 317.7% year-over-year earnings per share surge for 2025 [10][11] - **Coterra Energy**: An independent upstream operator with over 60% of its production being natural gas. Coterra has a favorable expected earnings growth rate of 27.8% over the next three to five years, compared to the industry average of 17.2% [12][13]

17 December 2025 | 9:26PM EST Equity Research Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Expect the stock to move higher on very strong guidance, driven by constrained supply through 2026 Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to move higher following a strong quarter with guidance that was far ahead of the Street, despite elevated investor expectations heading into the quarter. HBM, conventional DRAM, and NAND markets have all seen contract prices rise dramatically over the last few months, driven by continued supply ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable FFO for the first quarter was $0.63 per share, an increase of $0.08 compared to $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year, primarily due to the positive ground rent reset at PENN1 and higher NOI from rent commencements [24][16] - Overall GAAP same store NOI increased by 3.5% [16] - The company expects 2025 comparable FFO to be essentially flat compared to last year, down from an earlier estimate of a slight decrease [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased a total of 1,039,000 square feet, with 709,000 square feet in New York office space at starting rents of $95 per square foot and a positive mark-to-market of 6.5% [16][27] - A major lease of 337,000 square feet was completed with Universal Music Group at PENN2, contributing to the overall leasing activity [28] - The occupancy rate in New York decreased to 84.4% from 88.8% due to PENN2 being placed fully into service, but is expected to rise to 87.4% with the completion of the master lease at 770 Broadway [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The New York office leasing market maintained strong momentum, with the strongest quarterly volume since Q4 2019 [25] - Availability in the best ISA market continues to shrink, with only 500,000 square feet of new construction set to deliver in the next several years [26] - The company anticipates strong rental rate growth due to a tightening market and a significant shortage of quality office space [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the Penn District as a growth engine, with expectations of significant earnings growth by 2027 from the lease-up of PENN1 and PENN2 [20][25] - The company plans to sprinkle in a not insignificant amount of apartments in the Penn District while primarily remaining an office company [100] - The company is actively looking for new investment opportunities while maintaining a strong cash position for potential acquisitions and debt repayments [44][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the market despite current volatility, noting that demand for quality office space remains strong [27][30] - The company believes that the current market dynamics will lead to increased rents and reduced concessions, indicating a shift towards a landlord's market [95] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining financial strength to capitalize on future opportunities [78] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its debt by $915 million and increased cash balances to $1.4 billion, providing immediate liquidity of $3 billion [15] - The company completed a significant transaction with NYU, which included a prepaid rent payment of $935 million [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the 2,000,000 square foot negotiation between PENN1, PENN2, and the balance of the portfolio? - Approximately 50% of the 2,000,000 square foot pipeline is related to PENN1 and PENN2, with strong activity expected at PENN2 [37][38] Question: What is the confidence level around reaching 80% occupancy at PENN2 by the end of the year? - Management remains confident in reaching the target occupancy, with significant activity and rising rents expected [39][40] Question: What are the plans for the cash on the balance sheet? - The cash will be used for debt repayment, maintaining liquidity, and funding new development opportunities [44][45] Question: How do you view the trend of owner-occupiers in the market? - There is a growing trend of retailers and companies wanting to own their spaces in prime locations, which is beneficial for the market [90] Question: What is the outlook for real estate valuations? - The company expects that great assets will command great prices, with a recovery in valuations anticipated [55][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter earnings per share of $1.33, an increase from $1.19 in the same period of 2024, reflecting improved market fundamentals in marine transportation and strong demand for power generation [6][11] - Overall, the Marine Transportation segment revenues were $476 million with an operating income of $87 million, resulting in an operating margin of 18.2% [13][20] - The company expects to generate cash flow from operations of $620 million to $720 million for 2025, with a strong balance sheet and significant free cash flow anticipated despite high levels of capital expenditures [26][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inland marine transportation revenues increased by 2% year-over-year, primarily due to higher utilization and pricing, despite a 50% increase in delay days compared to the previous quarter [15][19] - Coastal marine revenues decreased by 6% year-over-year due to shipyard maintenance, but barge utilization remained strong in the mid to high 90% range [10][17] - Distribution and Services segment revenues decreased by 7% year-over-year, with power generation revenues down 23% due to supply delays, while commercial and industrial revenues grew by 12% year-over-year [20][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Barge utilization rates in inland marine were in the low to mid 90% range, while coastal marine utilization was in the mid to high 90% range [9][18] - Spot prices for inland marine increased in the low single digits sequentially and in the high single digits year-over-year, while term contract prices renewed with mid single-digit increases [9][15] - The company noted strong demand for power generation products, particularly from data centers, contributing to a healthy backlog despite supply delays [20][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capitalize on strong market fundamentals and drive shareholder value creation through strategic acquisitions and stock repurchases [27][33] - Management indicated a focus on maintaining a balanced capital allocation approach, with capital expenditures expected to range between $280 million and $320 million for the year [26][27] - The company is optimistic about the marine market outlook, expecting revenues to grow in the mid to high single-digit range for inland marine and high single to low double-digit range for coastal marine [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of core businesses and favorable market conditions, despite potential macroeconomic uncertainties [28][33] - The company anticipates continued strength in market fundamentals for both segments, with inland revenues expected to grow and operating margins gradually improving [30][31] - Management highlighted the importance of managing working capital and supply constraints, while also noting the potential for revenue acceleration as backlogs convert into sales [41][42] Other Important Information - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of $36.5 million, impacted by a working capital build of approximately $122 million [24] - The company used $101.5 million for stock repurchases at an average price just over $101, with continued repurchases in the second quarter [25][26] - The inland fleet is expected to end 2025 with a total of 1,117 barges, representing 24.8 million barrels of capacity [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for acquisitions given the current market environment? - Management indicated that the environment is more constructive for acquisition opportunities, with a focus on consolidating marine acquisitions as a priority [39][40] Question: How are cost controls impacting margins in the Distribution and Services segment? - Management noted that strong lean processes have been implemented, which should continue to improve margins, although there are mix issues affecting overall profitability [42][43] Question: What is the current state of inland barge utilization and pricing? - Management confirmed that inland barge utilization exited the first quarter in the mid-90s, with spot pricing up sequentially and term contracts showing increases [52][54] Question: How do tariffs and trade flows impact the business? - Management explained that while steel prices have increased due to tariffs, the overall impact is modestly positive, with potential benefits from onshoring and domestic manufacturing [70][72] Question: What is the outlook for coastal margins as shipyard days decline? - Management expects coastal margins to improve as shipyard maintenance concludes, with a significant increase in revenue anticipated in subsequent quarters [88][89]