Economic Outlook - Economists predict a slowdown in job growth for June, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 115,000, down from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][4] - David Rogal from BlackRock notes that while the labor market is slowing, there are no signs of panic, with expected job growth at a moderate level just above 100,000 [1] Labor Market Indicators - Weekly claims for unemployment benefits are showing early signs of weakness in the June job market, with UBS economists indicating a decline in labor market strength over the past 6 to 8 weeks, predicting job additions of only 100,000 for June [1][4] - The average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3%, lower than May's increase of 0.4%, reflecting ongoing policy uncertainties affecting the labor market [4] Policy Uncertainties - A significant factor impacting employment data is President Trump's decision to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 380,000 individuals, with an additional 558,000 set to expire in the coming months. UBS estimates this could lead to a reduction of about 5,000 jobs in June [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a much lower job addition of 85,000 for June, attributing part of this to the TPS policy, which may reduce non-farm employment by 25,000 [5] Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly with a deadline set for July 9, is another factor affecting the labor market. Even if tariffs do not revert to previous levels, the ongoing uncertainty is already impacting economic conditions [5] - According to the Kansas City Fed's June manufacturing survey, about 25% of businesses have reduced hiring, and 21% have laid off employees, indicating a direct impact from policy uncertainties [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market predictions suggest an approximately 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming July meeting, influenced by rising inflation expectations, particularly concerning potential tariff-induced inflation [6]