Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on precious metals by Shenwan Futures, covering market data, macro news, and analysis of precious metal trends [1] Market Data Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 821.68 and 823.66 respectively, with daily increases of 0.83% and 0.86%. Their trading volumes are 265,502 and 111,269, and open interests are 142,330 and 193,360 [2] - **Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9,918.00 and 9,940.00 respectively, with daily increases of 1.00% and 0.98%. Their trading volumes are 627,101 and 238,141, and open interests are 270,592 and 333,080 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai Gold T+D closed at 809.97 the previous day, up 1.27% with a gain of 10.19. London Gold closed at 817.04, up 0.77% with a gain of 6.27 [2] - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai Silver T+D closed at 9,780.00 the previous day, down 0.20% with a loss of 20.00. London Silver closed at 41.19, up 0.91% with a gain of 0.37 [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,251 kilograms, an increase of 627 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 38,957,798 ounces [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,207,227 kilograms, an increase of 11,231 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,164,636 ounces to 516,067,724 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US Dollar Index is 98.1485, up 0.29% from the previous day. The S&P Index is 6,460.26, down 0.64%. The US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 1.40%. Brent crude oil is at $67.39, up 0.01%. The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1221, up 0.02% [2] Macro News - The Fed's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending is flat or declining as wages fail to keep up with price increases. All regions reported price increases, with 10 reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 reporting "strong input price growth" [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and well below the expected 7.382 million [3] - Fed Governor Waller suggests starting interest - rate cuts this month and making multiple cuts in the coming months, but remains open to the specific pace. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem believes the current interest - rate level is suitable for the economic environment [3] - The final Eurozone Composite PMI for August slightly rose to 51, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary value, reaching a 12 - month high. The Services PMI dropped from 51 in July to 50.5 [3] Analysis and Strategy - Gold and silver have strengthened, with gold showing a convergent breakout. The market is focused on Friday's non - farm payroll data [3] - The decrease in US job openings, Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, and the proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list have influenced the market [3] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are considered dovish, increasing expectations of a September interest - rate cut. Coupled with disappointing July non - farm payroll data, it is beneficial for precious metals [3] - The Fed's internal views are divided. Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. However, due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, the Fed may still take a preventive approach to interest - rate cuts in September [3] - Trade negotiations have shown progress, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases support the long - term trend of gold [3] - Overall, gold and silver are likely to show a stronger trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the Fed's independence. The market is focused on this week's non - farm payroll data [3]

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July 2025, approaching the expected 4.2%[5] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[5][48] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% in July, with declines across three age groups, except for those aged 55 and above, which saw a 0.1 percentage point increase[7][25] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 80%, and the likelihood of two or more cuts in 2025 increased to 87%[5][11] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield dropping by 25 basis points, while all major stock indices declined, with Nasdaq down 2.2%[5][12] Job Sector Analysis - In the private sector, five industries reported job losses in July, while the government sector saw a decrease of 10,000 jobs; however, private sector jobs increased by 83,000 when excluding government jobs[9][69] - The largest job gains in the private sector were in education and health services (79,000), followed by retail (16,000) and financial activities (15,000)[70] Unemployment Claims - The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance remained stable at 1.946 million as of July 19, 2025, which is approximately 640,000 higher than the lowest point in mid-2022[10][32] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, 2025, with a monthly average of 221,000, down by 20,000 from June[10][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, on August 1st, with the approaching tariff deadline and a concentration of important events and data, the slight increase in risk aversion sentiment provides some support, leading to a small rebound in gold prices. However, since the agreements among major trading economies are mostly settled, the impetus from risk aversion is limited, and there is still downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - For silver, affected by the sharp decline in New York copper and the downturn in domestic commodities, risk appetite has decreased, causing silver prices to drop significantly. Although there is some support, with the approaching tariff deadline and the release of US non - farm data, and the agreements among major trading economies mostly settled, the downward pressure on silver prices remains [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes and European major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.20 basis points to 4.366%. The US dollar index dropped 0.02% to 100.04. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.31% to $3342.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Commodities mostly turned down, and silver prices dropped significantly. The same situation as gold occurred in the stock market, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 2.51% to $36.79 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.75, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2199 kilograms to 35643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 61 kilograms to 1208033 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's June unemployment rate; 08:00 South Korea's July exports and imports; 08:30 Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan's July manufacturing PMI; TBD Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" implementation; 09:45 China's July RatingDog China PMI; TBD Trump's so - called "reciprocal tariff" and 50% import copper tariff effective date; 13:00 India's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:50 France's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:55 Germany's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:00 Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:30 UK's July manufacturing PMI final value; 17:00 Eurozone's July CPI preliminary value; 20:30 US July non - farm payroll report; 21:45 US July Markit manufacturing PMI final value; 22:00 US July ISM manufacturing index, July University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, June construction spending; Sunday OPEC + holds a separate meeting to decide on production policy [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows a neutral signal. The increase in warehouse receipts is a bearish factor, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is also bearish. However, the main long - position situation is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is neutral. The change in warehouse receipts is neutral, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is neutral. The main long - position situation is bullish [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5].

Group 1 - The current gold market resembles that of ten years ago, characterized by low volatility and minimal trading activity, with traders feeling increasingly apathetic [1] - Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and monetary policy have all been put on hold, leading to a stagnant market environment [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and potential retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The market remains unclear, with the key support level at $3,300 acting as a pivot point for potential price movements, indicating ongoing bullish and bearish battles [2] - Current trading activity shows limited fluctuations, with a critical focus on the $3,305 level as a dividing line for long and short positions [4] - The strategy suggests observing the market without taking significant risks until a clear breakout occurs, particularly below $3,305 [4]

Labor Market Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1% [1][3] - The unemployment rate has been within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024 [1] Employment by Demographics - The unemployment rate for Black individuals rose to 6.8%, while adult women and White individuals saw a decrease to 3.6% [1] - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of total unemployment [1] Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%, with the employment-population ratio steady at 59.7% [1] Part-Time Employment - The number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons was 4.5 million, showing little change [2] - There were 6 million individuals not in the labor force but willing to work, remaining stable from the previous month [2] Non-Farm Employment Growth - Non-farm employment growth was primarily in state government and healthcare sectors, with federal government jobs continuing to decline [3] - State government employment increased by 47,000, mainly in education, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000 [3] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare industry added 39,000 jobs in June, consistent with the average monthly increase of 43,000 over the past year [3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees rose by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Average weekly hours for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours [5] Employment Adjustments - Revisions to previous months showed an increase in April's non-farm employment from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000 [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 in non-farm employment for June, consistent with the average monthly increase of 146,000 over the past 12 months [1] Group 1 - Non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June [1] - The average monthly increase in non-farm employment over the past year was 146,000 [1]

Economic Outlook - Economists predict a slowdown in job growth for June, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 115,000, down from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][4] - David Rogal from BlackRock notes that while the labor market is slowing, there are no signs of panic, with expected job growth at a moderate level just above 100,000 [1] Labor Market Indicators - Weekly claims for unemployment benefits are showing early signs of weakness in the June job market, with UBS economists indicating a decline in labor market strength over the past 6 to 8 weeks, predicting job additions of only 100,000 for June [1][4] - The average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3%, lower than May's increase of 0.4%, reflecting ongoing policy uncertainties affecting the labor market [4] Policy Uncertainties - A significant factor impacting employment data is President Trump's decision to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 380,000 individuals, with an additional 558,000 set to expire in the coming months. UBS estimates this could lead to a reduction of about 5,000 jobs in June [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a much lower job addition of 85,000 for June, attributing part of this to the TPS policy, which may reduce non-farm employment by 25,000 [5] Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly with a deadline set for July 9, is another factor affecting the labor market. Even if tariffs do not revert to previous levels, the ongoing uncertainty is already impacting economic conditions [5] - According to the Kansas City Fed's June manufacturing survey, about 25% of businesses have reduced hiring, and 21% have laid off employees, indicating a direct impact from policy uncertainties [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market predictions suggest an approximately 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming July meeting, influenced by rising inflation expectations, particularly concerning potential tariff-induced inflation [6]

Employment Data - In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, exceeding market expectations of 126,000, despite a downward revision of 95,000 in the previous two months[5] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.24% in April, up from 4.19% in March, marking a near three-year high[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped significantly to 16.7% following the employment data release[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates steady in June and July, with potential cuts in September and either November or December[2] - Market expectations for policy rates have shifted closer to the Federal Reserve's stance rather than the White House's position[2] Sector Performance - Service sector employment rose from 132,000 to 145,000, indicating resilience in this area, while goods-producing jobs fell from an increase of 11,000 to a decrease of 5,000[5] - Average hourly earnings saw a month-on-month increase of 0.42%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%[5] - Job openings to unemployed persons ratio remains at 1, below the 2019 level, indicating a balanced labor market[5]

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm employment increased by 139,000 in May, which is similar to the average monthly increase of 149,000 over the previous 12 months [1] Group 1 - Non-farm employment growth in May was 139,000, indicating a steady labor market [1] - The average monthly increase over the past year was 149,000, suggesting consistency in employment trends [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing market expectations of 130,000, although the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, which may provide the Federal Reserve with the space to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. economy needs to create approximately 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, a figure that may decline due to the revocation of temporary legal status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants [1] Employment Trends - The majority of job growth this year reflects companies hoarding workers amid uncertainty over trade policies, which has hindered employers' ability to plan ahead [1] - Conservative Republican senators and figures like Elon Musk have opposed President Trump's tax and spending plans, adding another layer of uncertainty for businesses [1] - Employers' reluctance to lay off workers may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the end of the year [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% this month, with a potential return to easing policies in September [1]