1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their market trends, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on these analyses [2] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Trend**: Last week, copper prices oscillated at a relatively high level, similar to gold. Before the Spring Festival, the overall open interest may shrink to 550,000 lots. In the long - term, the US $12 billion commercial stockpiling plan and the call from the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association to increase commercial reserves may encourage long - term funds to go long on copper at low prices. The price is expected to be lower before the Spring Festival and higher after it [2] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. Domestic smelter output is expected to be stable around the Spring Festival. The Shanghai copper premium is 35 yuan, and the Guangdong discount is 105 yuan. The social inventory is 331,300 tons [2] - **Overseas Situation**: There are many news of production cuts from traditional mainstream mining companies. The market is concerned about the US government's control over long - term copper resources. The LME copper inventory has increased to 184,300 tons, and the LME spot discount is $77 [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a light position or conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage during the Spring Festival [2] Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Trend**: The market continues to oscillate. The domestic operating capacity of alumina is 95.05 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.5 million tons. The alumina balance remains in surplus, and the weekly inventory has increased by 55,000 tons to 5.114 million tons [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% last week. High aluminum prices have continuously suppressed downstream demand, and some processing enterprises have entered the holiday in advance [2] - **Inventory and Spot**: The overall demand is weak. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 33,000 tons to 829,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods increased by 26,000 tons to 267,000 tons. The spot premium and discount have declined [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the support effectiveness of the recent low point of 23,800 yuan. If it breaks, it will seek support at 23,000 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [2] Zinc - **Market Trend**: The "Wash Panic" accelerated the release of bearish sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price fell 5.36% last week, and the decline slowed down at the 24,500 yuan/ton level. The LME zinc price oscillated at a high level and remained in the rebound channel [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly to 107,600 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot discount narrowed to $21.56/ton. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 148,500 tons, and the fundamental strength of the domestic and foreign markets showed differentiation again. The loss of zinc spot imports expanded to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, most terminals are on holiday, and the operating rate of downstream zinc enterprises has dropped significantly. Only a small number of enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. High prices suppress demand, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline in the next two weeks [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The Shanghai zinc market starts to reduce volatility for adjustment. The option double - selling strategy has good returns, and the profit space for single - side futures trading is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Lead - **Market Trend**: Last week, the lead prices of both domestic and foreign markets accelerated to test the lower support of the consolidation range. The Shanghai lead price fell 2.1%, and the LME lead price fell 1.48%. The import window remained open [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory increased to 233,000 tons. The overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The operating rates of SMM primary lead smelters and secondary lead smelters decreased. Some primary lead smelters in Hunan and Yunnan carried out maintenance or production cuts, and smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices [2] - **Consumption**: As the Spring Festival approaches, only a small number of downstream enterprises make rigid purchases at low prices. The spot trading volume has declined. The holiday time of battery enterprises has increased compared with previous years. Pay attention to the lead ingot inventory accumulation after the festival [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lead price is at a low level, and the capital divergence has increased. The overall surplus situation remains unchanged. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai nickel price fell from a high level last week, and the market trading volume decreased while the open interest slowly increased. The Shanghai stainless steel price showed a similar trend [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The social inventory of stainless steel has continued to increase. Market confidence has declined, and trading is light. Only a small amount of rigid replenishment is made. Terminal downstream procurement has basically ended [2] - **Spot and Supply**: The Jinchuan nickel premium is 9,500 yuan, the imported nickel discount is 50 yuan, and the electrowon nickel is at par. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Market fear of high prices has emerged. It is recommended to be cautious [2] Tin - **Market Trend**: The Shanghai tin price is prone to follow the silver price. It shows a unilateral downward trend with relatively limited rebound. It is a small - volume variety, and the trading volume and open interest have a great impact around the Spring Festival [2] - **Supply**: The Indonesian exchange traded 2,720 tons of tin ingots in late January. There was a landslide in an Indonesian tin mine, but there is no news of impact on production. The earthquake in Myanmar is far from the Wa State production area. The market is concerned about the resumption of supply in the Wa State [2] - **Consumption**: The sharp decline in tin prices gives downstream enterprises an opportunity to stock up before the festival. The Steel Union tin inventory decreased by 1,658 tons to 9,898 tons last week. The global semiconductor sales in December 2025 continued to increase month - on - month [2] - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high volatility of the overseas market with light trading. Also, pay attention to the inventory changes during and after the Spring Festival. The out - of - the - money call option selling strategy for the 2603 contract has realized profits. It was recommended to wait and see or go short with a light position against the MA20 moving average last week [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Market**: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated downward last week, and the market trading was active. The exchange policy affected market participation. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase [2] - **Spot Performance**: The spot price of Shanghai battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped sharply. Mines are not willing to sell due to the price decline, and downstream enterprises have sufficient previous inventory and have lowered their acceptance prices for new orders [2] - **Macro and Demand**: The external strength has weakened significantly. The rebound of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is not enough to support market confidence. The power battery orders may decline, and the production schedule in February is expected to be greatly affected [2] - **Supply Factors**: The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The de - stocking speed has slowed down [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The lithium carbonate futures price has crashed, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high. Pay attention to risk prevention and control [2] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated downward, dragged down by the general decline of the non - ferrous metal sector and the expected implementation of organic silicon emission reduction. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market stocking is coming to an end, and the trading activity has decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has shrunk significantly. The production cuts of large Xinjiang factories have led to a significant decline in the number of open furnaces. Downstream polysilicon is expected to cut production by more than 20,000 tons month - on - month. If the organic silicon industry achieves its emission reduction target in the first quarter, the industrial silicon demand will be dragged down by about 90,000 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The Xinjiang factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the price is affected by the volatility transmission of the metal sector and the negative news of the organic silicon industry. Pay attention to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [2] Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon has increased. The N - type re - feed material is 53,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the industry meeting last week, enterprises are holding up prices, but there is no spot transaction. The futures price briefly soared due to news, but the capacity expectation has not been realized, and the price has returned to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of leading enterprises decreased in January, and the monthly output dropped to around 100,000 tons. The output in February is expected to further drop below 80,000 tons. The production schedule of the silicon wafer sector in February is generally stable, and there may be a small supply - demand gap in polysilicon in February [2] - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of silicon material manufacturers is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [2] - **Investment Strategy**: The industry association announced the domestic photovoltaic new installation target of 180 - 240 GW in 2026, which meets market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the anti - involution orientation of the industry. After the emotional correction of the market, it is expected to oscillate around the 50,000 yuan/ton mark [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in 2025, with a notable slowdown in job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in December, down by 0.2 percentage points month-over-month [1] - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, with an annual total of 584,000 jobs added for the year, averaging 49,000 jobs per month, which is significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024, averaging 168,000 jobs per month [1] - The employment growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by the restaurant services, healthcare, and social assistance sectors, while retail employment saw a decline [1] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for private sector non-farm employees increased by $0.12 to $37.02 in December, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for October and November 2025, indicating a downward adjustment of job losses from 105,000 to 173,000 in October and a reduction in job gains from 64,000 to 56,000 in November, totaling a decrease of 76,000 jobs over the two months [1] - Economists suggest that while the pace of job growth in 2025 has slowed, it also signals a trend towards stability, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [2]

Employment Situation - Non-farm payrolls increased by 50K in December, lower than the estimated 60-70K and the revised 56K from the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate fell by 20 basis points to 4.4%, marking the lowest level since September and the first month-over-month decrease since June [1] Labor Market Revisions - Revisions to prior months indicate a weakening labor market, with November's jobs revised down by 8K to 56K and October's revised down by 68K to a loss of 173K [2] - The four-month trailing average of jobs gained per month is now at 12K, below the previous average of 13K [2] Job Sector Performance - Private-sector jobs contributed significantly with an increase of 37K, while government jobs rose by 13K, despite a decrease of 6K in federal government employment [3] - Healthcare jobs saw the largest increase at 46K, followed by construction at 28K and social assistance at 18K; however, leisure/hospitality and transportation sectors experienced declines of 12K and 18K, respectively [3] Wage and Labor Participation - Hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, which may not support a case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Average workweek and labor force participation rates remained low at 34.2 and 62.4%, respectively; the U-6 unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, the lowest since September [4] Housing Market Data - Housing starts for October decreased by 4.6% month-over-month to 1.25 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, with single-family starts increasing by 5.4% while multi-family starts dropped by 26% [5] - Building permits, a leading indicator for future housing starts, were at 1.41 million, down 0.2% month-over-month but up from expectations, with multi-family permits increasing by 0.4% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall non - farm payroll report is weak, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March next year. The London silver price soared in the early session, and the Shanghai silver main contract broke through the significant threshold of 15,000 yuan per kilogram, hitting a new record high [1] - The growth of employment in the US in November remains weak, and the unemployment rate rises, indicating a continued cooling in the labor market. There are differences within the Fed regarding whether to be more worried about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently show low willingness to continue cutting interest rates [1] - In the context of easing tariff tensions, the core inflation approaching the target range paves the way for further actions. If subsequent non - farm data is stronger than expected, the Fed's internal stance may turn hawkish [1] - In the short term, considering the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulse - like rise in silver may increase the risk of short - term corrections, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 979.720 yuan/gram, up 8.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 15,512 yuan/kilogram, up 846 yuan [1] - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai gold is 197,105 hands, up 899 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 18,292 hands, up 938 hands [1] - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 275,889 hands, down 18,015 hands; that of Shanghai silver is 1,627,068 hands, up 55,692 hands [1] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,722 kilograms, up 420 kilograms; that of Shanghai silver is 911,924 kilograms, up 21,209 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 972.71 yuan/gram, up 7.82 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 15,190 yuan/kilogram, up 318 yuan [1] 3.3 Basis - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.01 yuan/gram, down 0.48 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 322 yuan/kilogram, down 528 yuan [1] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The SPDR gold ETF holding is 1,051.68 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holding is 16,018.29 tons, down 42.31 tons [1] - The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC (weekly) is 204,588 contracts, down 5,751 contracts; that of silver is 32,188 contracts, down 1,828 contracts [1] - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [1] - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.22, down 0.06; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.92%, down 0.01% [1] - The VIX volatility index is 16.48, down 0.01; the ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.57, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio is 68.66, up 1.09; the CBOE gold volatility indicator is 20.18, down 1.02 [1] 3.6 Industry News - The US added 64,000 non - farm jobs in November, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The non - farm jobs in October decreased significantly by 105,000, far exceeding the expected 25,000 decline, and the figures for August and September were also revised down by 33,000 in total. The average hourly wage in November increased 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [1] - The US retail sales in October were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding the expected 0.4% growth [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the service PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI dropped to 53, all hitting 6 - month lows [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed optimism about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%. Bessent pointed out that Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years, and revisions to August and September data showing a combined decrease of 33,000 jobs [1][9]. Group 1: Employment Data - The non-farm employment numbers showed minimal change, with an increase of only 64,000 since April, indicating almost no net growth [5][14]. - The unemployment rate for November was 4.6%, consistent with September, but higher than 4.2% in November of the previous year, with 7.8 million unemployed individuals [3][12]. - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.6%, both showing little change from September [3][12]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Healthcare and construction sectors saw job increases, with healthcare adding 46,000 jobs and construction adding 28,000 jobs in November [5][14]. - The federal government sector experienced a decline, losing 6,000 jobs in November, following a significant drop of 162,000 jobs in October [6][14]. - The social assistance sector continued to rise, adding 18,000 jobs, primarily in personal and family services [6][14]. Group 3: Wage and Hourly Data - The average hourly wage for all private non-farm employees rose by 5 cents (0.1%) to $36.86, with a year-over-year increase of 3.5% [7][16]. - Average weekly hours for private non-farm employees increased slightly by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours [7][16]. - The average hourly wage for production and non-supervisory employees increased by 11 cents (0.3%) to $31.76 [7][16]. Group 4: Impact of Government Shutdown - The release of employment data was delayed due to a federal funding interruption from October 1 to November 12, affecting data collection and processing [2][11]. - The government shutdown resulted in the absence of the October employment report, impacting the overall analysis of labor market conditions [2][11].

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the US employment market as of November 20, 2025 [2] - The key data includes non - farm employment, recruitment, unemployment rate, and salary growth rate [2][3][4] Group 2: Recruitment Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly average recruitment plan dropped significantly to 30,447 people, a decrease of 80,766 people compared to the September average, and it was 127,000 in 2021 (104,000 in 2019) [3] Group 3: Non - farm Employment - As of September 2025, the total non - farm employment increased by 119,000, with the government adding 22,000 and enterprises adding 97,000 [3] - In terms of industry structure, the retail industry added 139,000, the wholesale industry added 94,000, and the financial industry added 50,000 in September [3] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [3] Group 4: Salary Growth Rate - As of September 2025, the average weekly salary growth rate of private non - farm employment increased to 3.8%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to August [4] - In September, the growth rate of goods production was 3.7% (down 0.3 pct), and in service production, trade and transportation increased by 2.7 pct, information by 2.9 pct, and finance by 0.2 pct [4] - The non - farm employment presents a situation of apparent stability but internal weakness, with contradictory signals indicating weakening demand and a loose employment structure, which is not enough to prompt an immediate interest rate cut in December but strengthens the need for a subsequent interest rate cut cycle [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily strategy report on precious metals by Shenwan Futures, covering market data, macro news, and analysis of precious metal trends [1] Market Data Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and 2512 are 821.68 and 823.66 respectively, with daily increases of 0.83% and 0.86%. Their trading volumes are 265,502 and 111,269, and open interests are 142,330 and 193,360 [2] - **Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 are 9,918.00 and 9,940.00 respectively, with daily increases of 1.00% and 0.98%. Their trading volumes are 627,101 and 238,141, and open interests are 270,592 and 333,080 [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai Gold T+D closed at 809.97 the previous day, up 1.27% with a gain of 10.19. London Gold closed at 817.04, up 0.77% with a gain of 6.27 [2] - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai Silver T+D closed at 9,780.00 the previous day, down 0.20% with a loss of 20.00. London Silver closed at 41.19, up 0.91% with a gain of 0.37 [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,251 kilograms, an increase of 627 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 38,957,798 ounces [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 1,207,227 kilograms, an increase of 11,231 kilograms from the previous day. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,164,636 ounces to 516,067,724 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US Dollar Index is 98.1485, up 0.29% from the previous day. The S&P Index is 6,460.26, down 0.64%. The US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 1.40%. Brent crude oil is at $67.39, up 0.01%. The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1221, up 0.02% [2] Macro News - The Fed's latest Beige Book shows that economic activity in most parts of the US has hardly changed in recent weeks. Consumer spending is flat or declining as wages fail to keep up with price increases. All regions reported price increases, with 10 reporting "moderate or slight" inflation and 2 reporting "strong input price growth" [3] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job openings in July dropped to 7.181 million from a revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and well below the expected 7.382 million [3] - Fed Governor Waller suggests starting interest - rate cuts this month and making multiple cuts in the coming months, but remains open to the specific pace. St. Louis Fed President Mousalem believes the current interest - rate level is suitable for the economic environment [3] - The final Eurozone Composite PMI for August slightly rose to 51, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary value, reaching a 12 - month high. The Services PMI dropped from 51 in July to 50.5 [3] Analysis and Strategy - Gold and silver have strengthened, with gold showing a convergent breakout. The market is focused on Friday's non - farm payroll data [3] - The decrease in US job openings, Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, and the proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list have influenced the market [3] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are considered dovish, increasing expectations of a September interest - rate cut. Coupled with disappointing July non - farm payroll data, it is beneficial for precious metals [3] - The Fed's internal views are divided. Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. However, due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, the Fed may still take a preventive approach to interest - rate cuts in September [3] - Trade negotiations have shown progress, but the overall trade environment has deteriorated. The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China's continuous gold purchases support the long - term trend of gold [3] - Overall, gold and silver are likely to show a stronger trend as the interest - rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the Fed's independence. The market is focused on this week's non - farm payroll data [3]

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from 4.117% in June to 4.248% in July 2025, approaching the expected 4.2%[5] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[5][48] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% in July, with declines across three age groups, except for those aged 55 and above, which saw a 0.1 percentage point increase[7][25] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 80%, and the likelihood of two or more cuts in 2025 increased to 87%[5][11] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield dropping by 25 basis points, while all major stock indices declined, with Nasdaq down 2.2%[5][12] Job Sector Analysis - In the private sector, five industries reported job losses in July, while the government sector saw a decrease of 10,000 jobs; however, private sector jobs increased by 83,000 when excluding government jobs[9][69] - The largest job gains in the private sector were in education and health services (79,000), followed by retail (16,000) and financial activities (15,000)[70] Unemployment Claims - The number of individuals receiving unemployment insurance remained stable at 1.946 million as of July 19, 2025, which is approximately 640,000 higher than the lowest point in mid-2022[10][32] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, 2025, with a monthly average of 221,000, down by 20,000 from June[10][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, on August 1st, with the approaching tariff deadline and a concentration of important events and data, the slight increase in risk aversion sentiment provides some support, leading to a small rebound in gold prices. However, since the agreements among major trading economies are mostly settled, the impetus from risk aversion is limited, and there is still downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - For silver, affected by the sharp decline in New York copper and the downturn in domestic commodities, risk appetite has decreased, causing silver prices to drop significantly. Although there is some support, with the approaching tariff deadline and the release of US non - farm data, and the agreements among major trading economies mostly settled, the downward pressure on silver prices remains [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes and European major stock indexes all closed down. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.20 basis points to 4.366%. The US dollar index dropped 0.02% to 100.04. The offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.31% to $3342.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Commodities mostly turned down, and silver prices dropped significantly. The same situation as gold occurred in the stock market, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 2.51% to $36.79 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.75, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2199 kilograms to 35643 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 61 kilograms to 1208033 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below it. The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's June unemployment rate; 08:00 South Korea's July exports and imports; 08:30 Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan's July manufacturing PMI; TBD Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" implementation; 09:45 China's July RatingDog China PMI; TBD Trump's so - called "reciprocal tariff" and 50% import copper tariff effective date; 13:00 India's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:50 France's July manufacturing PMI final value; 15:55 Germany's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:00 Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value; 16:30 UK's July manufacturing PMI final value; 17:00 Eurozone's July CPI preliminary value; 20:30 US July non - farm payroll report; 21:45 US July Markit manufacturing PMI final value; 22:00 US July ISM manufacturing index, July University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, June construction spending; Sunday OPEC + holds a separate meeting to decide on production policy [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows a neutral signal. The increase in warehouse receipts is a bearish factor, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is also bearish. However, the main long - position situation is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis is neutral. The change in warehouse receipts is neutral, and the position of the K - line relative to the moving average is neutral. The main long - position situation is bullish [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions are decreasing [5].

Group 1 - The current gold market resembles that of ten years ago, characterized by low volatility and minimal trading activity, with traders feeling increasingly apathetic [1] - Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and monetary policy have all been put on hold, leading to a stagnant market environment [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and potential retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The market remains unclear, with the key support level at $3,300 acting as a pivot point for potential price movements, indicating ongoing bullish and bearish battles [2] - Current trading activity shows limited fluctuations, with a critical focus on the $3,305 level as a dividing line for long and short positions [4] - The strategy suggests observing the market without taking significant risks until a clear breakout occurs, particularly below $3,305 [4]