宏观经济周报 2025 年第 35 周 2025 年 8 月 25 日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.icbc.com.cn 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数进一步扩张，显示中国经济动能持续增强，修复 态势从初步企稳走向更具广度和深度的协调扩张。四大分项指标全线走强，构 成经济运行的多重支撑。其中，消费景气指数显著上行，重回扩张区间并创近 一个月来新高，反映出居民消费信心加快恢复，服务类消费表现尤为亮眼。投 资景气指数进一步提升，政策驱动下的基建和制造业投资持续扩张。生产景气 指数显著改善，产能利用率大幅抬升，供给端延续良好韧性，成为当前经济增 长的重要引擎。出口景气指数同步回升，在外部需求整体偏弱的背景下展现出 较强适应能力和结构优势。总体而言，本周经济运行从边际修复走向实质扩 张，展现出消费、投资、生产与出口协同发力的积极格局，政策效应持续释 放，经济增长基础进一步夯实。 2025 年 7 月中国经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。内需稳步恢复， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the balance of risks facing the US economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the job market as both supply and demand are slowing [3] - The report highlights that the probability of a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with market expectations rising from 75% to 90% following Powell's speech [3] - The future path of interest rate cuts remains dependent on economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and consumption trends [3] Group 2 - The report anticipates that inflation may rebound in August, and a decrease in immigrant labor could offset the impact of slowing labor demand on the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low [3] - If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate in August, the Federal Reserve may opt for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation rises more, the Fed may delay until October [3] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December and that there is significant uncertainty regarding the timing of future cuts next year, influenced by both economic dynamics and the White House's pressure on the Fed [3]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）美国8月标普PMI超预期，制造业PMI初值录得53.3，预期49.7，前值49.8；服务业PMI初值录得 55.4，预期54.2，前值55.7。2） 7月咨商局领先指数符合预期，环比-0.1%，预期-0.1%，前值-0.3%。 3）7 月地产数据超预期 ，新屋开工折年142.8万套，预期129.7万套，前值从132.1万套上修至135.8万套；7月二 手房销量折年401万套，预期392万套，前值393万套。 欧元区：1）8月制造业PMI超预期，初值录得50.5，预期49.5，前值49.8。2）7月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI 同比终值2%，预期2%，前值2%；核心CPI同比2.3%，预期2.3%，前值2.3%。 3） 8月消费者信心指数低于 预期，初值录得-15.5，预期-14.7，前值-14.7。 日本：1）8月制造业PMI回升，初值录得49.9，前值48.9；服务业PMI小幅回落，录得52.7，前值53.6 。 2）6 ...

JH：鲍威尔鸽的很勉强、警惕"越降息越滞胀"、南美路 演交流感受 20250824 摘要 美国经济面临内滞胀风险，消费者信心下降与通胀预期上升并存，服务 业 PMI 显示物价指数攀升而经济活动指标下降，与 2022 年情况类似， 美联储面临通胀与失业双重挑战。 关税和移民政策收紧是当前美国经济问题的主要因素，特朗普政府对进 口家具的关税调查以及卡车司机工作签证暂停发放，可能导致相关企业 股价下跌和就业市场下行压力。 美联储降息难以缓解滞胀，因滞胀根源在于移民和关税政策，降息可能 加速企业涨价，加剧 CPI 和 PPI 上升，房地产市场需房贷利率降至 5.5%才能刺激需求，但降息未必能同步降低长期利率。 智利和秘鲁养老金基金曾配置中国资产，但因疫情期间中国股市疲软而 减少仓位，目前仓位较低，两国政府允许居民提前支取养老金导致规模 缩减，部分资金流入私募等其他投资渠道。 南美投资者对中国经济存在疑虑，包括房地产市场疲软、消费者信心不 足、年轻人失业率上升、产能过剩以及政策监管风险，这些因素影响其 投资决策。 Q&A 如何解读 2025 年 Jackson Hole 会议上鲍威尔的讲话？ 2025 年 Jackso ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市跟随股市起舞 2025年8月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约周一跳空低开后大幅下跌，周二横向波动，周三大幅下跌，周四探底反弹，周五略有回落， 全周30年国债跌1.05%，10年国债跌0.52%，5年国债跌0.28%，2年国债跌0.03%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 8月22日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与8月15日相比表现整体平行上移。2年期国债到期收益率从8月15 日的1.40%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.439% ；5年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.59%上行4个BP至8月22日 的1.63% ；10年期国债到期收益率从8月15日的1.75%上行3个BP至8月22日的1.78% ；30年期国债到期收 益率从8月15日的2.05%上行3个BP至8月22日的2.08% 。 7月份，全国一般公共预算收入20273亿元，同比增长2. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

来源：滚动播报 美联储哈马克：失业率是我们所拥有的最佳指标之一。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]