每经AI快讯，2月27日，德国2月季调后失业率6.30%，预期6.30%。 ...

1、美股周四收盘，道指微涨，标普500指数跌0.5%，纳斯达克 综合指数跌1.18%。英伟达绩后收跌 5.5%，AMD和英特尔跌3%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.78%，阿里巴巴跌2.7%，百度跌5.6%。 2、 戴尔美股盘后涨幅扩大至12%，奈飞美股盘后大涨近8%。 3、美伊谈判取得重大进展，双方同意在不到 一周内再次会晤，计划于下周在维也纳展开技术层面磋商。伊朗外长称部分达成共识，美方评价积极。 4、美联储古尔斯比表示利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就提前大幅降息。 5、伊朗南部阿巴丹 工业综合体发生大火，火灾位于园区内聚合物工厂，未造成人员伤亡，园区内伊朗最大炼油厂未受影 响，六支消防队正扑救火情，预计一小时内扑灭。 6、美国30年期抵押贷款利率跌穿6%，为2022年以 来首次。 7、六架美国空中加油机正飞往以色列本·古里安 机场，加入该地区美军部署。 8、美乌日内瓦 会谈结束，未公布具体成果。 9、沙特阿美取消2月和3月从朱艾马码头装运的液化 石油气货物，该港输 送系统部分结构受损，维修预计持续一个多月。 10、特朗普政府放宽对古巴新兴私营部门燃料运输举 措，旨在提升美国推动古巴政治经济变革筹码。 ...

每经AI快讯，2月26日，墨西哥1月失业率2.70%，预估2.67%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the platinum and palladium main contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed significantly higher. Macroscopically, although the US inflation and GDP data have weakened periodically, Fed officials have successively sent out cautious signals, weakening the market's bets on interest rate cuts this year. Tariffs and the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran have heated up again, leading to high market risk aversion. If the tariff and geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continue to fluctuate, the risk premium may continue to support the prices of platinum and palladium on the beta side of the precious metals market. Fundamentally, platinum prices may continue to show strong resilience driven by rising costs at the South African supply - end, cautious capital expenditure by mining companies, and a tight inventory situation. Recently, due to the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict, the market's concern about supply tightening from Russia may support palladium prices to a certain extent. However, the recovery of palladium's recycled supply and the structural substitution in the automotive sector may cause it to move relatively in a volatile manner. In terms of price range, London platinum has a resistance level of 2200 US dollars and a support level of 2000 US dollars; London palladium has a resistance level of 1800 US dollars and a support level of 1600 US dollars. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 650 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 500 yuan/gram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract is 586.00 yuan/gram, up 38.50 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 457.95 yuan/gram, up 19.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 584.02 yuan/gram, up 38.93 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 431.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 1.98 yuan/gram, up 0.43 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 26.95 yuan/gram, down 16.70 yuan [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index is 97.90, up 0.17; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.78%, up 0.01%. The VIX volatility index is 19.55, down 1.46 [2] 3.2 Industry News - The US White House stated that President Trump's preferred option on the Iranian issue is always diplomacy, but is willing to use lethal force if necessary. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that based on the consensus reached in the previous round of negotiations, Iran will resume negotiations with the US in Geneva and is determined to reach a fair and reasonable agreement in the shortest possible time. - Fed Governor Cook said that AI has triggered a generational change in the US labor market, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate. The Fed may not be able to respond with interest rate cuts, and monetary policy may be in a dilemma: interest rate cuts cannot effectively address structural unemployment and may push up inflation. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that it is not appropriate to further cut interest rates until there is more evidence that inflation is continuously falling. Goolsbee pointed out that policymakers have been taught a lesson in the past for "misjudging inflation as only temporary" and should not repeat the same mistake. - Sources said that Japanese Prime Minister Hayami Sanae expressed clear concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest rate hikes during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo last week, and her stance was significantly tougher than during their last meeting in November last year. - The US has officially started imposing a 10% global tariff, and the White House is preparing a formal order to raise the tariff rate to 15% [2] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - On February 25 at 18:00, the eurozone's January CPI monthly and annual rates. - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment claims data for the week ending February 21. - On February 27 at 21:30, the US January PPI monthly and annual rates [2]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $5195.94 per ounce, reaching a high of $5249.75, a low of $5093.09, and closing at $5150.29 [1] Economic Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that artificial intelligence (AI) is causing a generational shift in the U.S. labor market, potentially leading to increased unemployment rates. The Fed may not be able to respond effectively through interest rate cuts [3] - Cook noted that while AI presents new opportunities, job displacement may occur before new jobs are created, leading to a potential rise in unemployment and a decline in labor force participation [3] - Collins from the Fed mentioned that recent economic data shows improvement in the labor market, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for some time, although inflation risks persist [4] - Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, stated that further rate cuts are inappropriate until there is more evidence of sustained inflation decline [4] Trade Developments - President Trump implemented a 10% global tariff, marking a continuation of his trade agenda. This follows a Supreme Court ruling that rejected his initial comprehensive trade measures [5][6] - There are plans to potentially increase the tariff rate to 15%, although the timeline for this increase remains uncertain [6] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed 12 F-22 fighter jets to Israel, indicating ongoing military support in the region [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 7.72 tons, bringing the total to 1094.19 tons [8] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by March is 2%, with a 98% chance of maintaining current rates. By April, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 15.9% [8]

责任编辑：王许宁 若澳洲联储有望在3月上调利率，则周三公布的1月月度通胀数据必须出现上行意外。鉴于就业市场持续 紧缩且失业率远低于现有充分就业水平，有观点认为澳洲联储可能在2月加息后于3月中旬再度行动。但 更可能出现的情况是，央行将淡化月度CPI数据的参考价值，转而等待4月下旬公布的更全面季度CPI数 据。 若澳洲联储有望在3月上调利率，则周三公布的1月月度通胀数据必须出现上行意外。鉴于就业市场持续 紧缩且失业率远低于现有充分就业水平，有观点认为澳洲联储可能在2月加息后于3月中旬再度行动。但 更可能出现的情况是，央行将淡化月度CPI数据的参考价值，转而等待4月下旬公布的更全面季度CPI数 据。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

在美联储即将迎来新一轮人事调整之际，美国货币政策前景再添不确定性。被总统特朗普提名、拟接掌 美联储主席之位的凯文·沃什，不仅将继承当前的经济形势，也将直面一场尖锐的政策分歧，白宫希望 尽快降息，而他即将领导的政策制定机构却明显转向更为谨慎、偏紧的立场。 美联储1月会议纪要显示，在去年三次降息后，多数官员认为有必要在3.50%-3.75%的联邦基金利率区间 维持一段时间。部分与会者甚至指出，若通胀持续高于目标水平，应保留"必要时加息"的政策表述。官 员们普遍判断，就业下行风险已有所缓和，但通胀顽固性仍构成主要威胁。 智通财经APP获悉，EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示，这一背景令沃什的处境颇为微 妙。"外界可能认为沃什带着偏鸽的立场上任，但他首先需要证明自己的判断立足于经济基本面，而非 政治因素；随后，还要说服一个愈发偏鹰、且对政策利率接近中性水平感到安心的委员会。" 最新经济数据并未迫使政策立场迅速转向。1月美国非农就业新增约13万人，失业率小幅降至4.3%；招 聘节奏虽不均衡，但裁员水平仍然较低，初请失业金人数也未释放衰退信号。通胀方面，美联储偏好的 通胀指标仍徘徊在约3%附 ...

部分与会者表示，委员会在认真评估新公布数据的同时，可能需要在一段时间内将政策利率维持不变；其中一些与会者判断，在没 有明确迹象表明反通胀进程已牢固重回正轨之前，并无必要进一步降息。 美联储此前在9月、10月和12月连续降息，累计下调基准借贷利率75个基点，使关键利率区间降至3.5%—3.75%。 FOMC会议共有19位理事与地区联储主席参与讨论，但只有12人拥有投票权。 在美联储内部本就存在理念分化的情况下，如果前理事Kevin Warsh被确认接任下一任美联储主席，这种裂痕可能进一步扩大。 Warsh曾表达支持更低利率的立场，现任理事Stephen Miran与Christopher Waller也持相似观点。Miran与Waller在1月决议中投下反对 票，更倾向于再降息25个基点。 踏入马年，祝各位读者龙马精神、马到成功、马运当头 ! 本周农历年期间，美联储公布1月27至28日FOMC会议纪要，资料显示，官员们对未来利率路径出现明显分歧，部分委员认为通胀 仍具黏性、劳动力市场韧性与潜在转弱并存，因此多数与会者支持短期内暂停进一步降息，并强调只有在通胀走势按预期回落的情 况下，年内才能恢复降息步伐。更有部 ...

统计局劳工统计主管肖恩·克里克（Sean Crick）表示，1 月澳大利亚的劳动参与率为66.7%，相比2025年 1月创下的历史最高纪录低0.6个百分点。同时，就业不足率升至5.9%，劳动力未充分利用率达到10%。 新华财经悉尼2月19日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚统计局19日公布的数据显示，经季节性因素调整， 2026年1月该国失业率为4.1%，与2025年12月持平。 最新数据显示，经季节性因素调整，1月澳大利亚就业人数环比增加0.1%，同比增长约1%，至1470.38 万人。失业人数环比减少大约0.3%，同比减少约0.1%，至62.47万人。月度工作小时数环比增长0.6%， 就业不足率环比增加0.2个百分点至5.9%。 而从趋势性数据看，1月澳大利亚失业率从前一个月的4.2%进一步降至4.1%，就业人数环比增长约 0.2%，同比增长约1.2%，至1470.58万人。失业人数环比减少大约1.3%，同比增长约4.2%，至63.63万 人。月度工作小时数环比增长0.2%，就业不足率维持在5.9%不变。 劳动参与率是指正在参与劳动力市场的人口占15岁以上总人口比例，就业不足率是指有工作但希望且能 够从事比目前更多 ...

周四公布的数据显示，澳大利亚1月就业岗位稳健增长，企业增聘了更多全职员工，而失业率维持在多 月低位，进一步印证劳动力市场保持韧性。澳大利亚统计局数据显示，1月净新增就业1.78万人（经修 正后12月为大幅增加6.85万人），符合市场预期的增加2万人，其中全职岗位强劲增加5.05万人。失业率 持平于4.1%，而分析师此前预计将升至4.2%。劳动参与率持稳于66.7%，工作时间健康增长0.6%。 ...