Some EU carmakers and capitals are pushing for an agreement with Washington that would allow for tariff relief in return for increasing investments in the US https://t.co/keIxx626pt ...

16 May 2025 | 8:30AM SGT Asian Equity Perspectives Raising estimates following easing US/China tariff tension Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Alvin So, CFA +852-2978-1585 | alvin.so@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Sunil Koul +44(20)7051-4931 | sunil.koul@gs.com Goldman Sachs International John Kwon +65-6654-6337 | jongmin.kwon@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Bruce Kirk, CF ...

14 May 2025 | 7:23PM EDT We have argued that, because tariffs have been responsible for the main risks to the Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vickie Chang +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC c45a43530f604d12bcb9a ...

Company Overview - Alcoa Corporation is a pure-play aluminum company organized into two business segments: alumina and aluminum [4] - The company operates 26 locations across nine countries on six continents and employs approximately 13,900 employees [4] Business Objectives and State - The company is focused on objectives for 2025, with an emphasis on understanding aluminum as a critical mineral [2][3] - Alcoa is actively working with the U.S. administration on tariff relief, which could provide an annual value of about $400 million for the business [4] Key Catalysts - The CEO, Bill Oplinger, is participating in the U.S. Saudi Investment Summit to promote the importance of aluminum [3] - The company is leveraging opportunities to engage with the U.S. administration to enhance its business prospects [3]

Alcoa (AA) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - Alcoa is a pure play aluminum company organized into two segments: Alumina and Aluminum, operating 26 locations across nine countries with 13,900 employees [3][4] - The company is focused on increasing domestic aluminum production and is actively engaging with the US administration for tariff relief valued at approximately $400 million annually [3][5] Key Financials and Targets - Alcoa reported strong cash generation in Q1, exceeding historical first-quarter performance [4] - The adjusted net debt target is set between $1 billion and $1.5 billion, with a current debt level of $2.1 billion [5][50] - The company aims to continue deleveraging efforts throughout 2025 [5][51] Tariff and Market Dynamics - The company is facing challenges with tariffs, as the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices have dropped over $200, negatively impacting US producers [7][8] - Alcoa is advocating for tariff relief while emphasizing the need for new smelters to meet US aluminum demand, which currently relies heavily on imports [9][10] - The Midwest premium has not risen sufficiently, attributed to market uncertainty and prior metal influx before tariffs [11][12] Geopolitical Impacts - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted trade flows, with Russian aluminum now primarily directed to China, not significantly impacting the US market [14][15][16] - The company does not anticipate major changes in LME prices due to the geopolitical situation, as global supply and demand remain stable [16] Bauxite and Alumina Markets - The bauxite market has eased, with customers reporting no issues in obtaining orders, particularly from Guinea [17][18] - Alcoa expects a 35% year-over-year increase in bauxite supply from Guinea to China [18] - Alumina prices have corrected significantly, but support is seen around $3.50 due to China's economic actions [19][20] Capital Expenditure and New Projects - The capital expenditure (CapEx) for new aluminum construction varies by region, with estimates ranging from $2,500 to $5,000 per ton [21] - Alcoa is on track for approvals for higher-grade bauxite in Australia by early 2026, with production expected to increase by about 1 million metric tons per year once operational [25][26] Spanish Operations - The San Ciprian smelter faced a power outage, impacting operations, but recovery efforts are underway [27][29] - The partnership with Ignis for renewable energy is crucial for the profitability of Spanish assets, with potential power agreements expected by 2028 [31][32] Elysis Technology and Innovation - Alcoa continues to support the Elysis partnership, contributing $50 million annually, while focusing on R&D for new aluminum production technologies [37][38] Asset Monetization and Capital Allocation - Alcoa is on track to close the sale of its Middle Eastern smelting assets for $1.3 billion in June, with plans for potential monetization of shares post-lockup [46][47] - The company is balancing deleveraging with capital returns and growth opportunities as it approaches its debt target [51]