[Music] Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bardis alongside Alex Coffeeoffe. So just some final thoughts on today's session, Alex.I mean really the conversation right now has been centered around the 2026 outlook as most of our guests have been talking about over the last 90 minutes or so. The guests I've been speaking to really believe that the beginning of 2026 is likely going to be really an extension of the end of 2025. And what they mean by that is the drivers which are really propelling this mar ...

Alan Howard, a co-founder of Brevan Howard, has joined a growing number of billionaires to have departed the UK since Labour came to power - Hollie Adams/Bloomberg Billionaire Tory donor Alan Howard has quit Britain for Switzerland, becoming the latest entrepreneur to leave in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s tax raid. The hedge fund tycoon, who founded Brevan Howard, shifted his residency to the low-tax haven earlier this year, according to filings seen by Bloomberg. He joins a growing number of billionair ...

Tax Policy Changes - The child tax credit received a $200 boost to the maximum amount for the 2025 tax year [2] - Individuals with tipped income can deduct that on their tax return, effective for 2025 [3] - A new $6,000 deduction per senior is available, subject to income thresholds [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - In 2025, tariffs amount to an estimated $1,100 burden per US household on average [7][8] - If tariffs remain in effect, the burden is projected to grow to about $1,400 per household next year [8] - Customs duties on Christmas lights alone have risen to $45 million this year [9] - Tariffs on holiday items have climbed to upwards of $500 million through the first 9 months of 2025 [11] - Toys and board games are subject to tariffs, increasing their cost [13][15] Offsetting Factors - Tax cuts passed by Congress last year will result in larger refunds [16] - The Treasury Department will adjust withholding tables for lower taxes from each paycheck [16] - Tax cuts in aggregate have a larger revenue impact than the tariff hikes [17]

The Government is particularly targeting the ‘accidental’ landlords who aren’t operating like a large corporation but who are adding value to the economy by investing money into refreshing old properties or creating new homes by converting the lower-demand large properties into share living. The relationship between landlords and tenants is too often considered by the government as hostile, rather than as what it should be, a valued relationship between service-provider and customer.An investment must make ...

Crypto Industry Makes Tax Policy Push With Private Dinner for Lawmakers► https://t.co/f5yWPNmnU1 https://t.co/f5yWPNmnU1 ...

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has ditched the plan of increasing national insurance contributions for partners at law and accountancy firms in the upcoming Budget, reported Financial Times, citing people familiar with the fiscal planning discussions. The move to introduce higher national insurance contributions from limited liability partnerships had been anticipated to generate £2bn, but the plan has reportedly been abandoned following Treasury analysis. Treasury modelling indicated that ...

Market Outlook - The market is still considered a buy, with earnings coming in better than expectations and a projected 13% year-over-year EPS growth for 2026 [1][5]. Investment Focus - There is a recommendation to focus on midcaps and small caps, especially as government reopens consumer plays, rather than solely on large-cap tech stocks [2][3]. - The earnings growth potential of companies outside the concentrated mega-cap tech space is highlighted, suggesting a diversification strategy [4][5]. Economic Conditions - The current economic environment is described as bending but not breaking, with expectations of higher earnings growth participation from sectors outside of tech over the next 12 months [5][6]. - The potential for seasonal earnings growth is noted, particularly as the year-end approaches and considering the midterm election year [6]. Government Shutdown - There is optimism regarding the resolution of the government shutdown, with indications of increasing friction and economic loss prompting discussions for a resolution [7].

Economic Reform & Tax Policy - Canada is considering economic reforms to reduce reliance on the US [1] - Tax policy is a key focus in Canada's economic reform efforts [1] - The upcoming Nov 4 budget may offer tax relief [1]

Corporate Developments and Analyst Insights - JPMorgan has reduced its price target for Netflix (NFLX) to $1,275, maintaining a neutral rating while balancing long-term optimism with cautious near-term outlook following stock rallies [2][10] - Jefferies has raised its price target for Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) to $560 from $550, following previous adjustments and citing tariff impacts on gross margins [3] - Piper Sandler has also increased its target for Intuitive Surgical to $595 from $575, driven by strong second-quarter performance and raised full-year procedure guidance [3] - Advent International is reportedly exploring a $2 billion sale of its Parfums De Marly business [4] Geopolitical and Policy Landscape - Efforts are ongoing to restore external power to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces cooperating to establish ceasefire zones for repairs, highlighting persistent safety risks [5][10] - Japan is set to unveil a new economic package focusing on counter-inflationary measures, growth investment, and national security, including potential tax cuts and expanded subsidies [6][10] - The U.S. pharmaceutical industry faces significant policy threats as a price probe raises the possibility of new drug tariffs, which could lead to higher domestic prices and potential drug shortages [7][10] - The UK Treasury is expected to address tax loopholes for online giants as part of broader efforts to tackle fiscal challenges [8] - Sweden's Prime Minister and Ukraine's President are scheduled for a joint visit, focusing on military aid and reconstruction as part of a bilateral security cooperation agreement [9] Market Performance and Trends - Global equity markets are showing signs of recovery, with Nasdaq futures gaining 0.11% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.18%, indicating a cautious recovery in equity markets [11][10] - The USD/JPY pair has stabilized at 151.835, influenced by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and Japan's economic outlook [11][10] - Thailand's financial markets are experiencing inflows into bonds and stock funds, attributed to a weakening U.S. dollar and attractive valuations in Thai equities [12]

Market Overview - Current market valuations appear stretched, prompting caution among investors despite record highs in the S&P and NASDAQ [1][2] - The market is described as "a little bubbly" but not at the extreme levels seen during the dot-com era, indicating a more stable environment [2] Economic Fundamentals - Strong fundamentals are noted, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and capital expenditures, which are expected to drive future stock performance [3] - The largest companies with robust balance sheets are leading market activity, contrasting with smaller businesses that are slower to respond [5] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve has recently cut rates by 25 basis points, with expectations for two more cuts this year, reflecting a more aggressive stance compared to peers [7] - Projections suggest continued rate cuts into 2026, with a potential move towards a lower neutral rate [9] Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data indicates a slowdown, with only 17,000 jobs created last month, the weakest since the post-recession recovery began in 2020 [10] - The economy is normalizing towards sub-2% growth, which may provide the Fed with the opportunity to continue lowering rates [12]