Core Insights - Calendar spreads are an options strategy that allows traders to benefit from time decay and changes in implied volatility [1] - This strategy involves selling a short-term option while buying a longer-term option at the same strike price, which can be structured with calls or puts for various market outlooks [1][2] Group 1: Strategy Overview - Calendar spreads are typically used when traders expect limited price movement in the short term but anticipate increased volatility or directional moves later [2] - The strategy can be applied to both bullish and bearish market conditions [2] Group 2: Trade Examples - The Barchart Long Call Calendar Screener highlights potential calendar spread trades on stocks like Delta Airlines (DAL), Netflix (NFLX), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) [3] - For Delta Airlines, a calendar spread at a $70 strike price involves selling a January 16 call option and buying a March 20 call option, costing approximately $2.55, with a maximum profit potential of $230 [4] - The breakeven prices for the Delta Airlines trade are estimated at around $64.75 and $76.75, which may vary with changes in implied volatility [5] Group 3: Trade Management - If Delta Airlines stock breaks through $65 or $77, adjustments or closure of the trade would be considered [6] - For Netflix, a similar calendar spread could be set up by selling the $95-strike January 23 call and buying the $95-strike March 20 call, with the stock currently trading at $91.46 [7]

Ever Wonder Why Polymarket Odds Shift So Much As Resolution Dates Near?Well, it's to educate ya!In this video I breakdown Time Decay, and how it effects Prediction Markets&& How it can work WITH You... or AGAINST You...Full Video Belowhttps://t.co/SWLuDdam8P https://t.co/iJCKFVHRBY ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon (AMZN) is identified as a suitable candidate for an iron condor strategy due to its stock being positioned between the 50 and 200-day moving averages and exhibiting high implied volatility at 36.72% compared to a twelve-month low of 22.95% [1] Group 1: Iron Condor Strategy - An iron condor strategy is designed to profit from a decrease in implied volatility while keeping the stock within a specified range [3] - The maximum profit from an iron condor is limited to the premium received, while the maximum potential loss is also capped, calculated by the difference in strike prices of the long and short options minus the premium received [3] - The strategy combines a bull put spread and a bear call spread, allowing traders to profit from time decay while expecting minimal movement in the stock price [4] Group 2: Trade Details - For the December 19 expiry, the proposed trade involves selling the $200 put and buying the $190 put for the bull put spread, and selling the $250 call and buying the $260 call for the bear call spread [4] - The iron condor is expected to generate approximately $1.80 per contract, equating to $180 of premium, with a profit zone ranging between $198.20 and $251.80 [5] - The maximum risk in this trade is calculated as $820, leading to a potential return of 13.14% when dividing the premium by the maximum risk [5]

My Top Time Based Trades Right now.Gemini 3.0 to be released by Oct 31- They just released Nano Banana, likelihood of another model is slim before October, with this still being only a week old.- At 60c for the No, you still have a 40c return, which is a 66% gain if you hold to expire.- I think you will break 80c here sooner than later, and personally Ill start scaling outWill Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by...?- September 10th is already at a near guarantee for No- September 15th is sitting at a NO for 80 ...

Investment Strategy - Prediction markets offer opportunities for patient investors who can hold positions early and capitalize on time decay [1] - Time decay creates a premium for event-based contracts, where the value increases as the resolution date approaches if the event has not occurred [1] - Identifying markets where an event is unlikely to occur by a specific date allows investors to benefit from the increasing odds as time passes [1] Risk Management - The primary risk is the occurrence of the predicted event, which would result in a loss [4] - Shorter time frames and smaller profit targets can mitigate risk and allow for consistent gains [4] - Data analysis, announcements, and market insights are crucial for identifying favorable odds and managing risk [4] Examples of Successful Strategies - An investment in the "Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast" market on August 27th at 639 mills (0639 USD) yielded an 11% gain in one week as the resolution date neared [2] - An investment in the "Google's Gemini Release by October 31st" market at 523 mills (0523 USD) resulted in an 11% gain due to the release of another AI product, Nano Bannana, making a Gemini release less likely in the short term [3] Key Takeaway - Time is a valuable asset in prediction markets, and investors can leverage it to their advantage by carefully selecting markets and utilizing data-driven insights [4][5]