RT Archie Hall (@ArchieHall)THE CRUELLEST YEARTwelve months after "Liberation Day", I wrote for @TheEconomist on American manufacturers—supposedly the trade war's winners. Even they are sceptical: chaos, instability and paperwork have swamped the tariffs' competitiveness boost.https://t.co/fzsrO5Htm5 https://t.co/OHTK5jRzEI ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Political Developments - The announcement of a ten-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure led to a temporary increase in Bitcoin, which rose by 4.2% as it approached the $70,000 mark, showcasing the volatility of cryptocurrencies influenced by geopolitical events [2][3] - The broader markets, including the DOW and S&P 500, experienced a decline as investors realized the pause was temporary, with 3,554 targets in Iran still pending, creating uncertainty in market projections [3] - The NASDAQ faced significant losses as tech companies, particularly chipmakers like NVDA, grappled with the implications of potential tariffs and trade tensions with China [5] Group 2: Trade Policies and Tariffs - Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the European Union and a 25% penalty on Apple, which saw a 2.3% drop in pre-market trading, raising concerns about the impact on American consumers and the overall economy [4] - The proposed 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods, including specific items like "flirty skater skirts," have created confusion and concern among U.S. companies regarding supply chain adjustments [5] - A new round of support for farmers affected by tariffs was announced, reflecting a cycle where tariffs harm export markets, and government funds are used to compensate those affected, leading to skepticism about the sustainability of such policies [6] Group 3: Global Market Impact - The Nifty 50 index in India dipped below 23,000, indicating that U.S. political decisions have far-reaching effects on global markets, affecting pension funds and investments worldwide [7] - Asian markets, including the Sensex, have been trading under "ongoing tension," highlighting the uncertainty created by U.S. political statements and their potential economic ramifications [8]

There’s a phrase which China’s President Xi Jinping likes to use: “The world is undergoing changes which have not been seen in a hundred years. ” Now, these changes have appeared to arrive, but they’re delivered unexpectedly by Donald Trump. Epic Fury.I said I like that name. Amid the noise of war, the stance of another major power is speaking volumes. The US is demonstrating itself to be a force for instability in the world.And that gives President Xi and China a chance to present themselves as the adults ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. trade deficit has significantly narrowed, reaching $29.4 billion in October, a 39% decrease from September's $48.1 billion, marking the smallest trade deficit since June 2009 [2][4][3]. Trade Deficit Analysis - The trade deficit was $136 billion in March, but has now dropped to just under $30 billion, indicating a dramatic reduction compared to earlier figures [3]. - The October trade deficit of $29.4 billion was well below economists' forecasts, with expectations around $58 billion [4]. - The U.S. has experienced a massive trade deficit for decades, but the implementation of tariffs under President Trump's administration has led to a quicker narrowing of this gap than anticipated [5]. Tariff Impact - President Trump imposed 10% tariffs shortly after a Supreme Court ruling against his previous tariffs, with intentions to raise it to 15% [1]. - Despite criticism and concerns about rising prices for consumers, support for tariffs is waning among Americans, with a Harris Poll indicating that 70% believe tariffs have increased their costs [6]. Economic Growth and Trade - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, the strongest pace since late 2023, although growth slowed to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [8]. - Analysts remain optimistic about future economic growth, citing fading policy uncertainty and the effects of tax cuts [9]. Gold Market Insights - Exports of nonmonetary gold surged by $4.7 billion in January, while imports fell by $1.1 billion, reflecting a strong interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [21]. - Gold prices have increased nearly 65% over the past year, with predictions from JPMorgan's CEO suggesting it could rise to $10,000 an ounce [22][23].

Last week, President Trump postponed a summit with his Chinese counterpart on account of the war with Iran. When Trump and Xiinping do meet, here's an agenda item bound to figure prominently. Rare Earth elements.Right now, China holds a near monopoly over these strategic metals that are key components in so much that makes the modern world go. Smartphones, robotics, EVs, also fighter jets, drones, and radar technology. That is, China controls materials essential to America's ability to wage war.Tonight, the ...

An hour southwest of Las Vegas, in the guts of the Mojave, sits the only active rare earth mine in the US, an unlikely battlefield in our trade war with China, which has a near monopoly over these strategic metals. >> When Beijing choked off supplies last year, James Lety and his company got the call. We got called into the Pentagon and it was clear that there was a directive from the president to solve this problem as quickly as possible. ...

Market Reactions - The DOW dropped by 1.8%, losing 768 points, as investors reacted to the Supreme Court ruling and the announcement of a new 15% global tariff [2] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also fell, decreasing by 1.35% and 1.42% respectively, indicating a loss of trade certainty in the market [2] - Retail sector stocks, including Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), experienced pre-market pressure, declining by 2.1% and 2.4% respectively due to concerns over the new tariffs [3] Tariff Implications - President Trump announced a new 15% global blanket tariff in response to the Supreme Court's limitation on his tariff authority, which raised concerns about consumer confidence and potential price increases on various goods [2][3] - A 100% tariff on Chinese goods was also announced, effective "November 1 or sooner," causing Apple (AAPL) to see a stock dip as analysts recalculated costs [9] Energy Sector Developments - Oil prices surged amid potential conflict in Iran, with Trump announcing a $300 billion oil refinery project in Texas, which is comparable to Romania's GDP [4] - The energy market reacted positively to this announcement, with ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) seeing stock increases of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Trump called for immediate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to counteract inflationary pressures from the new tariffs, leading to increased volatility in the bond market [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield spiked as investors sought safety amidst the economic uncertainty [6] Shipping and Logistics Concerns - The announcement of a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act was perceived as insufficient by the market, leading to volatility in shipping stocks like ZIM, which rose by 3.2% despite broader concerns [5] Cryptocurrency Market Response - The cryptocurrency market saw significant declines, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping by 4.5% and Ethereum (ETH) by 5.2%, as fears of inflation and geopolitical tensions prompted investors to liquidate positions [8]

Core Viewpoint - PDD Holdings stock has become undervalued ahead of its earnings report, with a significant price drop from its peak, raising questions about potential rebound opportunities [1][6]. Company Overview - PDD Holdings is a leading player in the e-commerce sector, known for its popular platforms Pinduoduo in China and Temu internationally [2]. Recent Challenges - The company has faced multiple crises, including the impact of the trade war initiated by Donald Trump, which affected its ability to ship products to the U.S. without taxes [3]. - Temu's growth has reportedly stalled, with a 22% decline in traffic in February, attributed to the end of the de minimis provision and reduced marketing expenditures [3]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, PDD Holdings reported revenue of $15.2 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, while net income rose to RMB 29 billion, up 17% from the previous year [4]. - Analysts project the fourth quarter revenue to reach CNY 124 billion, marking a 12.9% increase [5]. - The annual revenue is expected to exceed CNY 432 billion, representing a 9.75% growth [7]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9.36, significantly lower than the sector median of 14, indicating it is undervalued [7]. - The forward EV-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 5.87, also below the sector median of 9.37 [8]. - Historically, the company's five-year average PE ratio is 62, further emphasizing its current bargain status [8]. Technical Analysis - The stock has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential further decline despite its low valuation [6][9]. - PDD Holdings' stock price has decreased from a high of $164 in May 2024 to $103, indicating bearish market sentiment [9]. - The stock has fallen below key technical levels, including the 100-week Exponential Moving Average, suggesting continued downward pressure [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling did not eliminate Donald Trump's tariffs, despite expectations that the repeal of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) would mitigate economic emergency risks [1] Group 1 - The ruling indicates that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration remain in effect, contrary to assumptions that they would be lifted following the Supreme Court's decision [1] - The repeal of IEEPA has removed certain economic emergency risks, but it does not affect the status of existing tariffs [1]

Group 1: Major Developments - A historic $300 billion partnership has been announced between the U.S. and India's Reliance Industries to build a new oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas, marking the first major U.S. refinery construction in 50 years [1][3] - The refinery is expected to process 168,000 barrels of oil per day, which has led to a 3.4% increase in Reliance Industries' shares in international markets [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 185 points (-0.42%), while the S&P 500 dipped by 0.31%, indicating a mixed market response [2] - Domestic energy companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) experienced slight declines of -0.8% and -1.1% respectively, as they face potential competition from the new refinery [4] Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - A 25% tariff on Indian imports is set to take effect on August 1, which could complicate the relationship between the U.S. and India despite the new refinery deal [4] - The administration is also considering a 10% universal global tariff, with reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% for countries taxing American goods, impacting market sentiment negatively [6] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The $300 billion investment is comparable to the GDP of Romania, raising concerns among fiscal hawks about the scale of the project [5] - The market is experiencing volatility, with the VIX (volatility index) increasing by 4.5%, reflecting investor uncertainty amid aggressive trade policies and geopolitical tensions [11]