By Karl Plume and Julie Ingwersen CHICAGO (Reuters) -A crop data blackout during the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown has led to the widest range of analyst estimates in a decade for corn and soybean yields, as an information vacuum at harvest time and during critical trade negotiations distorted the market for the country's two most ​valuable crops. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is set to release a hotly anticipated crop report including the government's first estimates of the two f ...

Group 1 - Crypto-related stocks experienced gains following positive signals from U.S.-China trade talks, with President Trump expressing optimism about a deal that would allow China to continue supplying rare-earth magnets to the U.S. in exchange for easing tariff threats [1][4] - Bitcoin surged to $116,200 before settling at $115,000, influenced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments, with stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) rising by 5% and bitcoin miners such as Hut 8 (HUT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) increasing by 2%-3% [2][3] - American Bitcoin (ABTC), led by Eric Trump, announced the acquisition of 1,414 bitcoin, raising total holdings to 3,865, resulting in a 10.5% increase in its stock price [3] Group 2 - Traditional markets also saw gains, with the Nasdaq up by 1.5% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1%, while precious metals like gold and silver continued to decline, with gold down 3.2% and silver down 4.5% [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision is anticipated to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, which could lower borrowing costs and encourage risk-taking in cryptocurrencies and tech stocks [5]

Group 1: Apple Inc. - Apple has incurred significant tariff costs, paying $800 million in tariffs during the June quarter and expecting $1.1 billion in the September quarter, which, while a small proportion of total profit, is still notable [1][9] - CEO Tim Cook has pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, which may help Apple mitigate some tariff impacts [3][9] - The company is facing uncertainty regarding future tariffs, especially with ongoing trade negotiations with China and potential 100% tariffs on foreign-made semiconductors [8][10] Group 2: RH (Restoration Hardware) - RH's stock has declined over 50% in 2025, impacted by new furniture-specific tariffs announced by President Trump, which include a 30% duty on upholstered furniture and a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets [12][14] - The company plans to produce 52% of its upholstered furniture in the U.S. by the end of the fiscal year, which may help mitigate some tariff impacts [16] - Despite the luxury brand's pricing power, the slow housing market poses challenges for passing on costs to consumers, leading to uncertainty about the overall tariff impact on RH [18][19]

Trade Tensions & Sticking Points - The US and China are in conflict due to China's reluctance to share its latest technology and its practice of artificially keeping prices low and dumping products abroad [1][2] - China claims it intends to change its economic modeling, but its past behavior suggests otherwise [2] Negotiation & Deal Prospects - There was no real progress towards a phase 2 deal, despite optimism in recent weeks [2] - A de-escalation is possible, especially leading up to APEC [3] Long-Term Outlook & Market Impact - The market may experience repeated cycles of conflict due to the inability to bridge the gap between the two sides and the lack of a clear strategy for decoupling or cooperation [3] - This ongoing conflict is causing constant suffering for the markets [3]

Trade Relations - Global CEOs, including Apple's Tim Cook, are expected to meet with Chinese trade negotiator He Lifeng in Beijing this week [1] Geopolitical Implications - The meeting suggests ongoing high-level discussions between global companies and Chinese trade officials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will maintain its trade negotiating stance on China despite stock market volatility, as emphasized by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent [1]. Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump appreciates a high stock market but attributes it to effective policies [1]. - Bessent's comments were made during an exclusive interview at CNBC's Invest in America Forum [1].

Core Points - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, particularly focusing on China's response to US tariffs and export curbs [1][2][3] Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - President Trump has softened his stance on China after threatening new 100% tariffs starting November 1st [1] - China is defending its approach to expand export curbs, claiming that US restrictions have harmed its interests [2][3] - The Chinese government views its actions as a response to US provocations and is threatening retaliation against the tariff threat [3][4] Group 2: Rare Earth Curbs - China has pledged to take corresponding measures in response to US tariffs, while clarifying that its rare earth curbs do not equate to a ban [4][5] - Analysts speculate that China may be using the rare earth curbs to extract concessions from the US ahead of an expected meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi [5][7] - The Chinese believe that maintaining their stance on rare earths could provide leverage in negotiations, placing the onus on President Trump to respond [7] Group 3: Economic Impact - The trade tensions are expected to significantly impact manufacturing, with some analysts describing the situation as a de facto embargo on China [8][9] - Current export numbers indicate that only 10% of direct shipments to China come from the US, suggesting a shift in China's reliance on American goods [10][11] - The Chinese government is adept at identifying pressure points for President Trump, focusing on issues like rare earths and soybeans, which are politically sensitive for him [12] Group 4: Chinese Negotiation Goals - China aims to have tariffs lifted and export controls on high-tech items removed to gain access to advanced technology [14][15] - The Chinese strategy appears to involve reducing reliance on the US while still seeking high-end technology items [15]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the export controls on semiconductors and AI chips from the US and rare earth minerals from China, highlighting the interdependence between the two nations [1][2] - China has recently announced additional export controls on rare earth elements and permanent magnets, which are crucial for manufacturing [2] - The importance of rare earths to the US has been emphasized, indicating a potential negotiation point between the two countries [3][4] Group 2 - There is uncertainty regarding whether a meeting will occur between the US and Chinese presidents, but both sides are publicly discussing their stakes in the negotiations [5][6] - China is aware of its leverage in the situation, particularly regarding its need for access to advanced AI chips from the US [7] - The significance of face-to-face meetings in diplomatic negotiations is highlighted, suggesting that personal interactions could facilitate more effective discussions [8][9]

Trade Negotiations - South Korea is in the process of finalizing a trade agreement with the U.S., with negotiations not initiated by South Korea, indicating a challenging position [1][2] - The $350 billion investment funding to the U.S. is a key issue, with expectations that its structure could be mutually beneficial [3][4] Economic Impact - The current investment amount represents 70 to 80% of South Korea's total foreign exchange reserves, highlighting potential severe impacts on the Korean economy without measures like currency swaps [6] - The automotive sector is facing challenges due to tariff negotiations, with a potential reduction from 25% to 15% still being burdensome for South Korean firms [7][8] Automotive Sector - Hyundai Motor plans to maintain its pricing policy despite the challenges posed by tariff negotiations, which is viewed as a wise approach [9] - The government is exploring policy options to alleviate the burden on the automotive sector amid ongoing negotiations [10] Visa Issues - Visa issues are complicating investment projects between South Korea and the U.S., with many projects on hold until a resolution is found [12][13] - The unresolved visa situation is causing reluctance among workers to enter the U.S., impacting South Korean firms' operations [14] Geopolitical Relations - South Korea is navigating the growing tech rivalry between the U.S. and China, striving to maintain good relations with both [15] - The U.S. has made demands on South Korea, including a proposed increase in defense spending, which could affect its relations with other countries [17][18]

Core Points - Oracle will recreate and secure a new version of TikTok's algorithm, with US owners leasing a copy from Bytedance, while Oracle will monitor and operate the algorithm [1] - The deal aims to address national security concerns, but it remains uncertain if it will satisfy the national security law passed by Congress [2] - Bytedance is expected to retain less than a 20% stake in the new TikTok structure, with US investors, including Oracle, holding a majority [3] - Six out of seven board seats will be held by Americans, with the final seat occupied by Bytedance [3] - The deal is part of ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing, potentially facilitating a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping [4]