Tom Lee, the chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital, has labeled the 2025 market “the most hated V-shaped rally,” arguing that investors are gripped by a level of pessimism typically seen only during severe bear markets, despite hopes of the S&P 500 hitting the 7,000 mark by year-end. Investor Pessimism In 2025 Mirrors Previous Bear MarketsLee pointed to persistent negative investor sentiment as a key anomaly in an update published on Fundstrat’s YouTube channel on Oct. 21. He highlighted recent AAII ...

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has expressed optimism about the U.S. economy despite the ongoing government shutdown, citing two key factors that could drive investor confidence. AI and Dovish Fed Could Spark Growth In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Lee said massive investments in the artificial intelligence sector and the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance are “powerful tailwinds” for the economy. The Fed’s 9-month ...

All right. So, Tom, we said this a bunch of time. The markets seem to be shrugging off the shake the the shutdown uh valuation concerns.What do you think is going on. Why do investors just continue to feel confidence. >> Uh well, Frank, I think there's two underlying fundamental drivers for the economy.You know, one is that we we know there's a a tremendous capex tailwind from AI. And the second is that the Fed's been on hold for 9 months and it's kept the ISM below 50 for now 31 months and the Fed's dovish ...

Market Sentiment & Analysis - Fundstrat认为当前市场是“最受厌恶的V型反弹”，尽管市场创新高，但投资者普遍持怀疑态度，机构客户对FOMC和关税截止日期等不确定性感到担忧 [1][2] - Wells Fargo认为很多人都在期待回调，市场可能出现盘整，短期走势不明朗，但基本面依然强劲，预计美联储未来几个月将采取鸽派立场 [4][5] - Newegg Wealth表示对市场保持中性乐观，不应逆势而为，当前趋势强劲向上，但不能忽视风险，市场并未过度超买，仍有现金在场外观望 [7][8] Speculative Trading & Risk - Goldman Sachs的全球投资研究团队报告显示，投机交易指标在过去几个月急剧上升，目前处于历史最高水平，预示着短期内股市存在上行风险，但也增加了长期下跌的风险 [10][11] - 过去35年，投机交易活动的急剧增加预示着未来三、六和十二个月的回报将高于平均水平，但24个月后的回报通常会下降 [11] - 高beta系数股票的表现已达到历史最高水平，看涨期权交易量激增，表明投资者只关注上涨空间，Finra保证金贷款余额在过去两个月增长了近20%，表明人们正在增加杠杆 [12][13] Potential Market Rotation - 如果美联储降息，经济增长好于预期，利率下降，那么逆向交易可能会变得更有吸引力，可能导致市场轮动，这是AI目前最大的担忧 [7] - 推动四月份低点以来反弹的主要是市场中质量最低的部分，例如投机性的、无盈利的科技股上涨了近100%，显示出投机狂热开始出现 [8][9]

Tariff Impact & Economic Outlook - The market believes tariffs aren't significantly impacting consumer spending or job growth yet, but inflation data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions [2] - The market views the President's tariff statements as negotiation tactics, expecting a balanced resolution that avoids economic disruption [4][5] - Current tariffs are annualizing at 24% of $4 trillion, effectively neutralizing the current budget, but haven't negatively affected consumer confidence or S&P earnings [6] - There's a possibility of underestimating the real economic impact of tariffs, which could increase market volatility [8] Market Sentiment & Valuation - Some investors who missed the recent rally are skeptical, viewing the market as fully priced in [11][12] - The current rally is considered the most hated V-shaped rally ever, surpassing those of 2020 and 2022 [13] - S&P's median PE ratio is 15% lower than pre-COVID 2020 levels, suggesting the market is undervalued despite multiple "black swan" events [13] Earnings & Margins - Earnings estimates have decreased by nearly 50%, indicating contracting earnings [15] - Current tariff levels don't pose a margin risk due to offsetting factors like commodity deflation [15][16] - ISM (Institute for Supply Management) has been below 50 for a record 29 months, correlating with slower S&P forward growth [16][17]

Fundstrat head of research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor, joins me here. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you.So, we have this rally that's now extending uh probably beyond what most were positioned for, but it started in a moment of peak uncertainty. Yes. And even when we were in peak uncertainty, a lot of us were saying that's kind of usually forward-looking bullish.But are we now getting to a point where we have finally feasted on all of the uncertainty and now we have a lo ...

Market Sentiment & Investment Strategy - Investors are skeptical about the rest of the year due to potential tariff changes and Fed meetings [2] - There's approximately $7 trillion of cash on the sideline [3] - The firm suggests buying small caps, financials, large and regional banks, industrials, max 7, Bitcoin, and washed-out stocks for the second half of the year [3] - The current market rally is considered the most hated V-shaped rally in recent years [2] Apple Analysis - Apple is potentially a washed-out stock with a possible 6-8% gain from its current position [4] - Technical analysis suggests a breakout from a short-term triangle formation, indicating a bullish setup [5] - A price objective derived from the triangle formation could lead to Apple reaching around $238, a potential 14-15% increase [6] - The firm believes patience will pay off for Apple, especially regarding AI development [7] - Apple's customers remain loyal, and the company is considered a "granny shot" in the firm's granny ETF [8]

Why don't we talk a little bit about where the markets stand overall right now. Because we're looking at both the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ 100, all closing at new highs again on Friday. It's the best quarter uh for technology since the second quarter of 2020.What's happening, and how do you see this playing out. Well, this is still the most hated V-shaped rally. And it of course has a lot to do with when stock stocks fell in a waterfall decline into April.Nobody likes to be sitting on stock. So a ...