Core Viewpoint - Tom Lee, chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital, describes the 2025 market as "the most hated V-shaped rally," highlighting a significant level of investor pessimism despite the S&P 500's potential to reach 7,000 by year-end [1][4]. Investor Sentiment - Persistent negative investor sentiment is noted as a key anomaly, with recent AAII survey data indicating that bears outnumber bulls, a trend reminiscent of previous bear market years in 1990, 2008, and 2022 [2][3]. Market Performance - Despite the prevailing fear among investors, the market has risen by 13% year to date, which Lee characterizes as a "most hated V-shaped rally" [3][4]. Corporate Earnings - Resilient corporate earnings are a foundation for Lee's bullish outlook, with 84% of S&P 500 companies surpassing earnings estimates, particularly driven by strong results from major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. [3][5]. Future Predictions - Lee predicts a "setup for a chase into year end," as under-invested players may be compelled to capitulate, reaffirming his S&P 500 target of at least 7,000, which he considers a conservative estimate [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - Anticipated catalysts for the next 12 months include a potential Federal Reserve easing cycle, improved visibility in AI driving mega-cap earnings, and a recovery in the ISM manufacturing index, which has been in contraction for 32 months [5].

Core Viewpoint - Fundstrat's Tom Lee expresses optimism about the U.S. economy, highlighting the impact of AI investments and a dovish Federal Reserve as key drivers of investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - Massive investments in the artificial intelligence sector and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance are identified as "powerful tailwinds" for the economy [2]. - The Fed's nine-month pause on interest rate cuts until September has kept the ISM Manufacturing PMI below 50 for 31 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Lee notes that a government shutdown disrupts economic activity and weakens confidence, which may lead the Fed to adopt an even more dovish stance, potentially allowing stocks to rally further [5]. - Despite a 30% rally in stocks, investor sentiment remains skeptical, leading to what Lee describes as "the most hated V-shaped rally" [5]. Group 3: Contrasting Views - Lee counters Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's caution regarding stock valuations, suggesting that such caution is typical of the central bank and should not be viewed as a warning sign [6]. - This bullish outlook contrasts with warnings from hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones about a potential "blow off" rally, drawing parallels to the late 1990s dotcom surge [7].

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The market seems to be shrugging off the shutdown and valuation concerns [1] - Two fundamental drivers for the economy are a tremendous capex tailwind from AI and the Fed's dovish stance [2] - The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) has been below 50 for 31 months, indicating manufacturing sector contraction [2][4] - A rise above 50 in ISM manufacturing would signal a return to expansion mode, benefiting financials, small caps, and the tech trade [5] - Seasonally, Q4 sees an average rise of about 5% since 1950 [8] - Investor sentiment is muted despite a 30% rally in stocks [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed has been on hold for 9 months, providing a lifeline to the economy [2] - The Fed may need to be more dovish due to the government shutdown disrupting economic activity and weakening confidence [7][8] - Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could boost the manufacturing sector [4] Investment Opportunities & Company Specifics - Financials are a pick due to the expectation of a dovish Fed and the potential for AI to be leveraged in the industry [11] - Financials may end up getting technology valuations, especially given blockchain [12] - Tether, valued at $500 billion or about 25 times earnings, demonstrates the cost reduction potential of building on the blockchain [13] - Tether has 300 employees, while JP Morgan has 313,000 employees [14] - Tether is valued at around $1.8 billion per employee, JP Morgan around $2.6 billion per employee [14]

Market Sentiment & Analysis - Fundstrat认为当前市场是“最受厌恶的V型反弹”，尽管市场创新高，但投资者普遍持怀疑态度，机构客户对FOMC和关税截止日期等不确定性感到担忧 [1][2] - Wells Fargo认为很多人都在期待回调，市场可能出现盘整，短期走势不明朗，但基本面依然强劲，预计美联储未来几个月将采取鸽派立场 [4][5] - Newegg Wealth表示对市场保持中性乐观，不应逆势而为，当前趋势强劲向上，但不能忽视风险，市场并未过度超买，仍有现金在场外观望 [7][8] Speculative Trading & Risk - Goldman Sachs的全球投资研究团队报告显示，投机交易指标在过去几个月急剧上升，目前处于历史最高水平，预示着短期内股市存在上行风险，但也增加了长期下跌的风险 [10][11] - 过去35年，投机交易活动的急剧增加预示着未来三、六和十二个月的回报将高于平均水平，但24个月后的回报通常会下降 [11] - 高beta系数股票的表现已达到历史最高水平，看涨期权交易量激增，表明投资者只关注上涨空间，Finra保证金贷款余额在过去两个月增长了近20%，表明人们正在增加杠杆 [12][13] Potential Market Rotation - 如果美联储降息，经济增长好于预期，利率下降，那么逆向交易可能会变得更有吸引力，可能导致市场轮动，这是AI目前最大的担忧 [7] - 推动四月份低点以来反弹的主要是市场中质量最低的部分，例如投机性的、无盈利的科技股上涨了近100%，显示出投机狂热开始出现 [8][9]

Tariff Impact & Economic Outlook - The market believes tariffs aren't significantly impacting consumer spending or job growth yet, but inflation data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions [2] - The market views the President's tariff statements as negotiation tactics, expecting a balanced resolution that avoids economic disruption [4][5] - Current tariffs are annualizing at 24% of $4 trillion, effectively neutralizing the current budget, but haven't negatively affected consumer confidence or S&P earnings [6] - There's a possibility of underestimating the real economic impact of tariffs, which could increase market volatility [8] Market Sentiment & Valuation - Some investors who missed the recent rally are skeptical, viewing the market as fully priced in [11][12] - The current rally is considered the most hated V-shaped rally ever, surpassing those of 2020 and 2022 [13] - S&P's median PE ratio is 15% lower than pre-COVID 2020 levels, suggesting the market is undervalued despite multiple "black swan" events [13] Earnings & Margins - Earnings estimates have decreased by nearly 50%, indicating contracting earnings [15] - Current tariff levels don't pose a margin risk due to offsetting factors like commodity deflation [15][16] - ISM (Institute for Supply Management) has been below 50 for a record 29 months, correlating with slower S&P forward growth [16][17]

Fundstrat head of research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor, joins me here. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you.So, we have this rally that's now extending uh probably beyond what most were positioned for, but it started in a moment of peak uncertainty. Yes. And even when we were in peak uncertainty, a lot of us were saying that's kind of usually forward-looking bullish.But are we now getting to a point where we have finally feasted on all of the uncertainty and now we have a lo ...

Market Sentiment & Investment Strategy - Investors are skeptical about the rest of the year due to potential tariff changes and Fed meetings [2] - There's approximately $7 trillion of cash on the sideline [3] - The firm suggests buying small caps, financials, large and regional banks, industrials, max 7, Bitcoin, and washed-out stocks for the second half of the year [3] - The current market rally is considered the most hated V-shaped rally in recent years [2] Apple Analysis - Apple is potentially a washed-out stock with a possible 6-8% gain from its current position [4] - Technical analysis suggests a breakout from a short-term triangle formation, indicating a bullish setup [5] - A price objective derived from the triangle formation could lead to Apple reaching around $238, a potential 14-15% increase [6] - The firm believes patience will pay off for Apple, especially regarding AI development [7] - Apple's customers remain loyal, and the company is considered a "granny shot" in the firm's granny ETF [8]

Why don't we talk a little bit about where the markets stand overall right now. Because we're looking at both the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ 100, all closing at new highs again on Friday. It's the best quarter uh for technology since the second quarter of 2020.What's happening, and how do you see this playing out. Well, this is still the most hated V-shaped rally. And it of course has a lot to do with when stock stocks fell in a waterfall decline into April.Nobody likes to be sitting on stock. So a ...