Market Sentiment & Analysis - Fundstrat认为当前市场是“最受厌恶的V型反弹”，尽管市场创新高，但投资者普遍持怀疑态度，机构客户对FOMC和关税截止日期等不确定性感到担忧 [1][2] - Wells Fargo认为很多人都在期待回调，市场可能出现盘整，短期走势不明朗，但基本面依然强劲，预计美联储未来几个月将采取鸽派立场 [4][5] - Newegg Wealth表示对市场保持中性乐观，不应逆势而为，当前趋势强劲向上，但不能忽视风险，市场并未过度超买，仍有现金在场外观望 [7][8] Speculative Trading & Risk - Goldman Sachs的全球投资研究团队报告显示，投机交易指标在过去几个月急剧上升，目前处于历史最高水平，预示着短期内股市存在上行风险，但也增加了长期下跌的风险 [10][11] - 过去35年，投机交易活动的急剧增加预示着未来三、六和十二个月的回报将高于平均水平，但24个月后的回报通常会下降 [11] - 高beta系数股票的表现已达到历史最高水平，看涨期权交易量激增，表明投资者只关注上涨空间，Finra保证金贷款余额在过去两个月增长了近20%，表明人们正在增加杠杆 [12][13] Potential Market Rotation - 如果美联储降息，经济增长好于预期，利率下降，那么逆向交易可能会变得更有吸引力，可能导致市场轮动，这是AI目前最大的担忧 [7] - 推动四月份低点以来反弹的主要是市场中质量最低的部分，例如投机性的、无盈利的科技股上涨了近100%，显示出投机狂热开始出现 [8][9]

tariff turmoil and whether it's still going to hit the economy in the stock market or not. Let's ask Tom Lee. He's Fund Strat's chief investment officer and head of research.He's here with us at Post 9. I mean, the market, Good to see you, by the way. Great to see you.The market clearly doesn't think that tariff turmoil is going to going to hit the economy and uh and stocks. Is that the right way to think about it. Well, I think the economy we've had enough data to know that the tariffs aren't necessarily h ...

Fundstrat head of research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor, joins me here. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you.So, we have this rally that's now extending uh probably beyond what most were positioned for, but it started in a moment of peak uncertainty. Yes. And even when we were in peak uncertainty, a lot of us were saying that's kind of usually forward-looking bullish.But are we now getting to a point where we have finally feasted on all of the uncertainty and now we have a lo ...

Why don't we just dig into it, Tom. Uh, what is your word of the day. Why don't we start there.Our word of the day is skeptical. Okay. And we're using the word skeptical because as we're starting the month of July and at the S&P 500 is up 5% year to date.I think investors are are looking at the rest of the year and are quite skeptical because they're saying, "Well, perhaps President Trump's not going to extend uh the tariff exemptions in July. The Fed has a meeting at the end of this month." And I think des ...

Why don't we talk a little bit about where the markets stand overall right now. Because we're looking at both the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ 100, all closing at new highs again on Friday. It's the best quarter uh for technology since the second quarter of 2020.What's happening, and how do you see this playing out. Well, this is still the most hated V-shaped rally. And it of course has a lot to do with when stock stocks fell in a waterfall decline into April.Nobody likes to be sitting on stock. So a ...