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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - **Steepener Strategy**: The recommendation to hold 5s20s steepeners is based on the Fed's dovish stance prioritizing the labor market, with expectations of a multi-quarter series of coupon auction size increases starting in May 2026 [3][17][18]. - **Dovish Fed Expectations**: The first Fed cut is projected for September 2025, with 2- and 10-year Treasury yields expected to reach 3.50% and 4.20% respectively by year-end 2025 [11][12]. International Rates - **Market Reactions**: Following a dovish surprise from the US labor market report, developed market (DM) rates have sold off, and curves have steepened due to low liquidity in August [4][38]. Commodities - **Copper Price Forecast**: Anticipated bearish pressure on copper prices, projected to decline towards $9,000/mt due to unwinding Chinese demand and front-loading US imports [8][102]. - **Impact of US Legislation**: The enactment of the OBBA is expected to decrease overall renewable energy capacity additions in the US, although it may expedite certain wind and solar projects [8][99]. Currencies - **Weak Dollar Outlook**: The dollar is expected to remain weak, with the underlying macro conditions supporting this view. A potential catalyst for further weakness could be a cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [58][67]. - **EUR/USD Projections**: The EUR/USD is projected to appreciate, with estimates suggesting a level north of 1.20 by the end of 2024 [73][76]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation to move to overweight (OW) positions in emerging market (EM) currencies and local rates, while remaining underweight (UW) in EM sovereign credit, is based on expectations of renewed USD weakness and lower US rates [116][117]. - **Economic Data Influence**: The starting point of an expensive USD and extended global positioning in US assets suggests a bullish response in EM FX to Fed cuts [123]. Other Important Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The US Treasury is expected to face funding challenges starting in FY26, necessitating increases in coupon sizes [21][26]. - **Investor Positioning in Agriculture**: Aggregate investor positioning in agriculture is rising but remains vulnerable to short covering [108]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Limited leverage over Russia without risking oil price spikes is highlighted, indicating the complexities of US foreign policy in relation to energy markets [91][93]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, investment strategies, and sector-specific forecasts.

Core Insights - Gold has seen significant demand this year due to U.S. policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, leading to substantial investments in gold ETFs, with global inflows reaching $43.6 billion as of August 15, 2025, potentially surpassing the record of $49.5 billion set in 2020 [1][11] Group 1: Investment Trends - North America contributed approximately $24 billion in gold ETF inflows, marking its second-strongest annual performance, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracting $9.6 billion, followed by iShares Gold Trust (IAU) with $6.1 billion and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) with $4.8 billion [2] - China led international inflows with $7.8 billion, followed by the UK ($2.9 billion), Switzerland ($2.5 billion), Japan and France ($1.2 billion each), and India and Germany ($1.1 billion each) [3] Group 2: Market Drivers - U.S. policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, has driven investors towards gold as a defensive investment, with gold traditionally serving as a wealth preservation tool during financial and political instability [4] - A weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% this year, and increased central bank purchases have also supported gold prices, with 95% of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has risen, with markets predicting over 90% probability for cuts in September, making gold more attractive compared to fixed-income investments [6] Group 3: ETF Details - SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has an AUM of $103.5 billion, with an average daily volume of 9.3 million shares and annual fees of 40 bps [7] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has an AUM of $48.6 billion, with average daily volumes of 6 million shares and annual fees of 25 bps [9] - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has an AUM of $16.8 billion, with an average daily volume of 3 million shares and low annual fees of 10 bps [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing tariff uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts, investor interest in gold ETFs is expected to remain robust in the coming months [11]

Memo To Trump: A Weak Dollar Begets A Weak Countryhttps://t.co/tRvMotR8fQ https://t.co/O99eHXZKEH ...

Macroeconomic Context - A weaker U.S. dollar is making international stocks more attractive as it increases the value of foreign earnings when converted to USD [1][2] - The Trump administration's One Big, Beautiful Bill raised the debt ceiling, leading to inflationary pressures on the dollar despite some spending cuts [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in the fall, which may further support international stock investments [2] Investment Opportunities - Mizuho Financial Group is gaining investor interest as Japanese stocks are seen as undervalued, particularly with the Bank of Japan cautiously raising interest rates [3][4] - Mizuho's stock has increased by about 20% in 2025, driven by improved loan profitability and earnings power due to a steepening yield curve [4] - United Microelectronics Corp. is positioned as a stable investment in the semiconductor sector, focusing on mature nodes needed for automotive and IoT applications, despite facing tariff concerns [7][8] - United Micro's stock is up 9.7% in 2025, with a stable net margin of 19%, although it has seen a decline of 5.6% over the last 12 months [8] - Suzano S.A., the world's largest pulp producer, is benefiting from recovering pulp prices and a joint venture with Kimberly-Clark, with its stock up nearly 5% in the last three months [11][12] - The Brazilian real's strengthening adds to the bullish case for Suzano, as its products are priced in dollars, indicating potential for growth [13]

Market Overview & Strategy - The market has largely priced in positive news, suggesting limited further upside and increased downside risk if earnings disappoint [1][7] - Strategy Asset Managers favors international markets due to the depreciating dollar, creating advantages for certain stocks [2] - A weak dollar is generally beneficial for US net exporters and should aid international stocks through translation effects [6][8] - The firm advises clients to look beyond short-term market noise and maintain a confident long-term outlook [5] Investment Opportunities - Marcato Libre, an e-commerce and fintech company with exposure to Argentina, is favored due to growth potential in Latin America, which is considered greater than in Europe [3] - The healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, is highlighted as a key area of focus [13] - Eli Lilly (Lily) is favored for its potential in the GLP-1 drug market, targeting the billion people globally who are obese [13] - Next-generation vaccines and personalized cancer vaccines represent exciting advancements in biotechnology [14] Monetary Policy & Economic Factors - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts, potentially starting towards the end of the year [10] - The high US deficit necessitates eventual rate cuts, although the timing remains uncertain [10][11]

I mean, Brian, 50% off the April low is Nvidia. The other Mag 7 stocks aren't quite that big, but they're big. Meta 37 1.5% off the April low.Microsoft 35, Amazon Alphabet are 27 and 22, respectively. You know, Apple's been lackluster relative to a lot of other names in this group, but even that stock's up 15% from the April low. Are you poised to believe Roth Capital and say there's plenty of support that the bull trend is indeed underway.Well, I think the bull trend is underway and we we're very lucky to ...