Incoming results: As the June quarter results season wraps up, we take stock of key trends using our analysts' structured Reaction to Earnings data set (see Asia Quantitative Strategy: Asian Research Alpha Tools – Signal Through the Noise for more background). Overall, for APxJ/EM we saw a net 4ppt of results beating consensus, although a net 5ppt of companies are expected to see 12-month consensus lowered. In Japan, these figures landed at a net 15% beat and net 14% expected to see consensus rise. August 2 ...

Summary of Global Exposure Guide 2025 Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the geographical revenue exposure of companies in North America, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets (EM) for the year 2025, published by Morgan Stanley [1][17]. Key Highlights North America - Companies derive **26%** of their revenue from foreign sources, with Europe being the largest source at **11%**. Other sources include Asia ex-Japan & ex-China at **4%**, Latin America at **4%**, and China at **3%** [2]. - Sectors with the highest foreign revenue exposure: - Technology: **55%** - Materials: **48%** - Industrials: **30%** - Industry groups with the highest exposure: - Semiconductors: **62%** - Tech Hardware & Equipment: **59%** - Household & Personal Products: **50%** - Defensive sectors (Utilities, Health Care, Real Estate) have the lowest foreign exposure [2]. Europe - European companies earn **56%** of their revenue domestically and **44%** from foreign markets, with a decline in domestic revenue generation over nearly three decades [3]. - Key foreign markets for European companies: - North America: **22%** - Asia Pacific: **19%** - Sectors with the highest foreign market exposure: - Semiconductors, Energy, and Pharmaceuticals [3]. Japan - Japanese companies derive **56%** of their sales domestically and **44%** from overseas, with the Americas accounting for **18%** of overseas revenues [4]. - Sectors with the highest overseas exposure include mining, rubber products, and transportation equipment [4]. Emerging Markets (EM) - Companies in APxJ and EM derive over **28%** of revenues from foreign markets, with the US/Canada being the largest source at **8%** and Europe at **6%** [5]. - Chinese companies have a rising foreign revenue share, now at **16%**, while over **43%** of EM-ex-China sales are generated abroad [5]. Additional Insights - US companies are most exposed to consumers, driving over **50%** of revenues, while European companies are least exposed [11]. - European companies incur over **30%** of their costs in Developed Europe, with **11%** of North American companies incurring more than half of their costs in North America [12]. - The report highlights the importance of geographical revenue exposure amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts, aligning with Morgan Stanley's key theme for 2025: Multipolar World [14][16]. Conclusion - The Global Exposure Guide provides a comprehensive analysis of revenue exposure across different regions and sectors, emphasizing the increasing importance of foreign markets for companies in North America, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets [17][29].

Generative AI & Technology Disruption - Google faces disruption risk from generative AI like ChatGPT, impacting search revenue as it transitions to an AI-driven model [1][2] - The market is watching Google's capex spend and the resulting innovation in AI [2] - IBM leverages its consulting arm as "customer zero" to implement and teach AI to clients, improving business returns through M&A [3][4] Autonomous Driving & Innovation - Tesla's autonomous driving, particularly its AI-first, camera-first approach, is a key differentiator, with potential for robo-taxi success [4] - Tesla's innovation pipeline and its potential to expand the Total Addressable Market (TAM) in AI and robotics are more critical than short-term car sales figures [4][5] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector has experienced a significant run-up, leading to higher expectations in the near term [6] - While TI and XBI are guiding to improving industrial fundamentals, the market is questioning whether valuations have outpaced fundamentals [6][7] - China, previously a tailwind, could become a headwind or a flat market for industrial semiconductors [7] Intel Turnaround - Intel's turnaround is idiosyncratic, requiring fixing the architecture versus node issue [8] - The market is eager to hear about the new CEO's priorities for getting the product roadmap back on track, attacking AI, and stabilizing the balance sheet [8]

Valuation & Market Performance - Nvidia's market capitalization hits $4 trillion for the first time [1] - Among AI stocks, Nvidia's valuation appears relatively cheaper [2] - The market initially reacted negatively to Nvidia's previous quarter performance [1] Supply Chain & Geopolitical Factors - Nvidia has effectively eliminated China from its sales forecasts due to sanctions [2] - Supply constraints for Nvidia have eased significantly [2] Industry Trends - The strength of the semiconductor industry is broad-based, not limited to Nvidia or mega-cap companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the tech hardware and semiconductors sector, including ASE, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, and TSMC, among others [8]. Core Insights - The outlook for AI adoption remains strong, with significant momentum in enterprise AI, leading to supply constraints for major customers [2][3]. - TSMC aims to double its CoWoS capacity year-over-year in 2025, despite facing gross profit margin dilution due to overseas expansion [3]. - Samsung reports robust memory demand, particularly from PC and smartphone sectors, supporting DDR pricing [4]. - The report highlights a value bias within the APAC tech sector, indicating a preference for certain stocks over others [5]. Summary by Sections AI and Technology Hardware - AI-related developments are driving enterprise adoption, with Microsoft noting strong demand from large customers [2]. - The ramp-up of Blackwell rack assembly is on track, with Quanta expecting to meet server test cycle targets by the end of Q2 2025 [2]. Semiconductor Industry - TSMC's gross margin is negatively impacted by NTD appreciation against USD, with a 40-basis point decline for every 1% appreciation [3]. - MediaTek maintains its Q2 gross margin guidance at 47% despite foreign exchange pressures [3]. - ASE targets $1.6 billion in revenue from advanced packaging and testing in 2025, up from $600 million in 2024 [30]. Market Dynamics - Samsung anticipates strong demand for memory products, which is expected to support pricing in the DDR segment [4]. - The report notes a potential decline in revenue for certain ICs, indicating a cooling off from earlier pull-ins [3]. Company-Specific Insights - ASE is focused on expanding its advanced packaging and testing business, targeting significant revenue growth [30]. - MediaTek is aggressively pursuing the N2 process migration, with expectations of reaching $1 billion in cloud ASIC revenue by 2026 [39]. - Quanta's server business is expected to grow, with AI servers making up a significant portion of sales [24]. Preferred Companies - The report lists preferred companies in the APAC tech sector, highlighting those with strong growth potential and favorable valuations [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of technological advancements, particularly AI, on various asset classes including equities, bonds, and currencies, with a focus on the US and China competition in AI adoption [1][10][49]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Non-linear Adoption of Technology**: The adoption of new technologies is characterized by a slow initial phase followed by rapid growth, eventually leading to diminishing returns [3][12][13]. - **Historical Technological Waves**: The report identifies three significant technological waves: the durable goods revolution (1950s), the rise of the internet (1990s), and the data boom (2010s), each contributing to economic growth and productivity [4][19]. - **Impact on Asset Prices**: Economic gains from technological advancements typically result in stronger equity performance, higher yields, and a stronger US dollar [9][10][34]. - **US vs. China in AI**: The future strength of the US dollar will largely depend on which country leads in AI technology, with implications for global economic dynamics [10][49]. - **Investment Trends**: Technological advancements lead to increased fixed asset investment, with historical data showing approximately 4 percentage points higher investment growth during periods of technological innovation [21][28]. - **Income Distribution Changes**: Technological progress tends to favor capital over labor, leading to increased income inequality, but also enhancing the US's position in global financial markets [29][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Diffusion of Technology**: The report highlights that technological advancements in one country can lead to global benefits, but the pace of adoption varies significantly between nations [42][44]. - **AI's Role in Economic Growth**: AI is expected to enhance productivity, which could lead to higher real interest rate expectations and influence monetary policy [66][70]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report discusses how AI could lower term premiums on bonds by improving fiscal outcomes and reducing inflation risks [84][91]. - **Volatility and Market Structure**: AI advancements are likely to enhance market efficiency, reduce volatility, and improve the accuracy of forecasts in financial markets [101][107]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the transformative potential of AI and other technological advancements on economic structures, asset prices, and global financial dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China competition in AI technology. The implications for investors include a focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from these advancements, as well as an understanding of the broader economic shifts that may occur as a result of these technologies.