Gold and silver have been the kinds of trade you could set and forget lately up day after day, headlines screaming new highs, and the usual “hard assets are back” chatter getting louder. Then Friday hit, and the mood flipped. The same metals that looked unstoppable suddenly looked crowded, leveraged and vulnerable to a sharp unwind. And when the “can’t-lose” corner of the market starts wobbling, traders inevitably scan for the next place capital might try to rotate. Related: Analyst eyes 'calm before sto ...

The Bond King is steering clear of the US. That's one of the prevailing themes that defines Jeff Gundlach's latest investing playbook, the famed fixed-income investor said. In an appearance on CNBC on Wednesday, the DoubleLine Capital CEO pointed to two risks in particular that were swaying his macro outlook: Higher inflation. Inflation is running at about a 3% annualize rate, above the Fed's 2% target. While that difference sounds small, Gundlach estimates that it translates into a 56% increase in consum ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have decreased despite a weaker dollar and strong economic growth in China, with renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland being a focal point [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.7% to $63.52 per barrel [1] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.5% to $58.45 per barrel [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.8% to 98.60, which typically supports oil and the broader commodities market [1] - Analysts noted that ICE Brent held up relatively well amid a broader risk-off sentiment in markets, settling 0.3% lower [2] - Continued firmness in ICE Brent timespreads indicates a tighter spot physical market, which may support prices [2]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - A weaker dollar generally supports buying assets in foreign currencies, with some expected to outperform others [1] - Emerging markets are typically sensitive to Fed rate hikes; a weaker Fed and benign rate outlook create a favorable environment for growth countries [1][2] - The industry anticipates Europe to deliver surprising EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth [2] - The industry suggests focusing on developed markets, with a mix of 75% developed and 25% emerging markets for investment [5] - The industry believes there's no need to take excessive risk to find strong growth and superior dividend growth opportunities [6] Specific Company & Sector Recommendations - European money center banks and European staples like Imperial and British tobaccos are highlighted as potential investments [2] - Siemens is favored, including for the data center trade [3] - ASML is favored due to strong order book [3][4] - Taiwan Semiconductor is considered a crucial semiconductor company [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Above-trend growth coupled with benign Fed dynamics creates a positive backdrop [5] - A 4.3% growth print indicates a strong economic environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal futures have experienced a decline after a period of strength, influenced by geopolitical factors and a weaker dollar [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals gained due to geopolitical turmoil and a softer dollar, as noted by Li Xing of Exness [1] - Gold is benefiting from a weaker dollar, driven by expectations of U.S. monetary easing impacting the currency and treasury yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Markets currently anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain unchanged rates in January [1] - There is an expectation of two rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The discussion revolves around the attractiveness of Japanese bond yields for investors, particularly in comparison to US Treasury yields [1][2] - The benchmark rate for Japan is at 75 basis points (0.75%), compared to the US rate of 350 to 375 basis points (3.50% to 3.75%), and the Japanese 10-year bond yield is around 2% versus the US 10-year bond yield over 4% [2] - A weaker dollar is considered beneficial for US companies, especially exporters of services, enhancing their competitiveness [4] - Central banks globally are competing against the dollar, partly driven by gold purchases [6] - US advantages include innovation, accountability, transparency, and governance, attracting private investors and corporations to US assets [6] - Global diversification of portfolios is returning, after a period of concentration in US assets [6] Potential Risks & Volatility - Concerns exist about potential rate cuts in the US leading to a weaker dollar, which could deter foreign investment and hedging activities [5] - Quadruple witching day, with $7 trillion in notional option exposure expiring, including $5 trillion tied to the S&P, raises concerns about market volatility [7] - Despite potential trepidation, the US market has demonstrated a remarkable ability to digest witching Fridays due to its liquidity and opportunities [8]

Market Outlook - Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer discusses the unexpected market events of 2025 and what investors should monitor [1] - The discussion covers market resiliency, AI, Federal Reserve policy, gold, Bitcoin, and a weaker dollar [1] Key Topics - Market Resiliency is a key area of focus [1] - The role of AI in the market is explored [1] - Federal Reserve policy and interest rates are discussed [1] - The potential of gold as an investment is examined [1] - The future of Bitcoin is debated [1] - The impact of a weaker dollar is analyzed [1] Additional Information - The webcast is for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice [1]

Core Insights - The weakening dollar, ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and rising expectations for further Fed rate cuts are driving investor interest in gold, with prices increasing by 3.58% over the past five days and 55.39% year to date [1][2] Economic Indicators - Strong fundamental indicators suggest that gold's gains could extend into 2026, supporting increased portfolio allocation [2] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 0.52% over the past five days and 8.17% year to date, with an all-time decline of 16.88% [3] Market Sentiment - A weaker U.S. dollar typically leads to higher demand for gold, making it more affordable for buyers using other currencies [4] - The likelihood of another interest rate cut in December is estimated at 64.6% according to the CME FedWatch tool [4] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, has contributed to economic uncertainty, with consumer sentiment dropping to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years [5][6] Investment Strategies - Gold remains a key hedge for investors amid increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended for investors, with a "buy-the-dip" approach suggested for potential declines in gold prices [9] ETF Recommendations - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) [8] - GLD has an asset base of $133.51 billion, making it the largest option, while GLDM and IAUM are the cheapest in terms of annual fees at 0.10% and 0.09% respectively [10] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) [11] - GDX has an asset base of $21.25 billion and a one-month average trading volume of 32.09 million shares, making it the most liquid option among gold miners ETFs [12]

Summary of LME Outlook: Navigating Copper's Price Ceiling, Aluminium and Nickel in Surplus, Zinc's Structural Shift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the industrial metals sector, specifically copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lithium, and cobalt, providing insights into market dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 and beyond [1][6][11]. Key Points Copper - **Price Forecast**: Expected to remain in the range of $10,000-$11,000 per ton for 2026/2027, with limited near-term upside due to market surplus [1][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: - Anticipation of a potential buyer strike from China if prices exceed $11,000, similar to the Q2 2024 scenario [11][12]. - Significant US copper inventories (760kt) could be released to rebalance the market if LME spreads tighten [12][14]. - Datacentre demand for copper is overestimated, accounting for only 1% of global demand, leading to a revised copper intensity assumption from 24t/MW to 17t/MW [12][14]. Aluminium - **Price Outlook**: Forecasted to decline to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 due to increased supply from Indonesia, which is expected to ramp up production significantly [1][21][22]. - **Market Conditions**: Current high smelter margins are not sustainable as the market is projected to enter a surplus of 1.5-2.0 million tons by 2026/2027 [21][23]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Persistent surplus expected, with prices forecasted to decline to $14,500 per ton by December 2026 [1][25][31]. - **Demand Factors**: Weaker demand from electric vehicle (EV) batteries and continued supply growth from Indonesia are contributing to the surplus [25][30]. Zinc - **Export Dynamics**: Anticipation of China becoming a net exporter of refined zinc by 2026 due to a structural shift in the global market [1][36][37]. - **Production Growth**: Chinese refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly, outpacing domestic demand, leading to a surplus [37][40]. Lithium - **Price Expectations**: Lithium prices are projected to average $8,900 per ton through 2026, driven by oversupply despite rising demand [1][45][46]. - **Market Conditions**: A significant increase in supply is anticipated, with producers planning around 1.3 million tons of new supply by 2028, which is nearly double the required amount to maintain stable inventories [45][46]. Cobalt - **Supply Constraints**: The introduction of export quotas in the DR Congo is expected to push the cobalt market into a deficit in 2026, tightening global supply [1][52][53]. - **Market Impact**: The DR Congo's dominance in global cobalt production (70%) means that any policy changes could significantly affect prices and supply dynamics [52][58]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Current high prices for copper, aluminium, and zinc reflect bullish investor sentiment, influenced by expectations of US Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1][6]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report emphasizes the importance of investment in grid and power infrastructure, which is expected to account for over 60% of copper demand growth from 2025-2030 [14]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the industrial metals market, highlighting key trends, price forecasts, and potential risks for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold, silver, and platinum prices is influenced by potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which are expected to lead to above-average returns for commodities [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement interest-rate cuts, which could positively impact metal prices [1] - The dollar is expected to weaken further, with the FX team suggesting that the current decline is only about halfway through [1] - Historically, periods of dollar weakness correlate with strong performance in commodities, indicating a favorable environment for metal investments [1]