Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - A weaker dollar generally supports buying assets in foreign currencies, with some expected to outperform others [1] - Emerging markets are typically sensitive to Fed rate hikes; a weaker Fed and benign rate outlook create a favorable environment for growth countries [1][2] - The industry anticipates Europe to deliver surprising EPS (Earnings Per Share) growth [2] - The industry suggests focusing on developed markets, with a mix of 75% developed and 25% emerging markets for investment [5] - The industry believes there's no need to take excessive risk to find strong growth and superior dividend growth opportunities [6] Specific Company & Sector Recommendations - European money center banks and European staples like Imperial and British tobaccos are highlighted as potential investments [2] - Siemens is favored, including for the data center trade [3] - ASML is favored due to strong order book [3][4] - Taiwan Semiconductor is considered a crucial semiconductor company [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Above-trend growth coupled with benign Fed dynamics creates a positive backdrop [5] - A 4.3% growth print indicates a strong economic environment [2]

Precious metal futures have fallen back after being strong overnight.Precious metals had gained on geopolitical turmoil, as well as a softer dollar, says Li Xing of Exness in a note."Gold continues to benefit from a weaker dollar as expectations of U.S. monetary easing weigh on the currency and treasury yields," says Xing. "Markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in January, but still price in two cuts by the end of 2026." ...

John, I want to come over to you. One thing I've been talking a lot of traders about is the idea of Japanese bond yields rising and that becoming a more attractive place for Japanese investors to put their money and maybe even other Asian investors to put their money. Do you agree with that thesis.>> Uh, you know, Frank, I I would think it's a little bit overblown at this point. Uh, the what the benchmark rate for Japan now at 75 basis points that compares to ours what's ours. 350 to 3.75% and our 10 year o ...

2025 delivered a market story no one saw coming. On this episode of Market Sense, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer reveals what made 2025 an unusual year, what was behind some the year’s biggest surprises—and what investors should watch next. Topics covered: • Market Resiliency • AI • Fed Watch • Gold • Bitcoin • Weaker dollar 00:00 Introduction 02:12 Latest market news 05:03 Market Resiliency 06:54 AI 09:42 Tariffs 12:58 International stocks 14:54 Weaker dollar 17:49 Federal Reserve & interest rates 19:38 Gold ru ...

Core Insights - The weakening dollar, ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and rising expectations for further Fed rate cuts are driving investor interest in gold, with prices increasing by 3.58% over the past five days and 55.39% year to date [1][2] Economic Indicators - Strong fundamental indicators suggest that gold's gains could extend into 2026, supporting increased portfolio allocation [2] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 0.52% over the past five days and 8.17% year to date, with an all-time decline of 16.88% [3] Market Sentiment - A weaker U.S. dollar typically leads to higher demand for gold, making it more affordable for buyers using other currencies [4] - The likelihood of another interest rate cut in December is estimated at 64.6% according to the CME FedWatch tool [4] Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, has contributed to economic uncertainty, with consumer sentiment dropping to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years [5][6] Investment Strategies - Gold remains a key hedge for investors amid increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended for investors, with a "buy-the-dip" approach suggested for potential declines in gold prices [9] ETF Recommendations - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) [8] - GLD has an asset base of $133.51 billion, making it the largest option, while GLDM and IAUM are the cheapest in terms of annual fees at 0.10% and 0.09% respectively [10] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) [11] - GDX has an asset base of $21.25 billion and a one-month average trading volume of 32.09 million shares, making it the most liquid option among gold miners ETFs [12]

Summary of LME Outlook: Navigating Copper's Price Ceiling, Aluminium and Nickel in Surplus, Zinc's Structural Shift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the industrial metals sector, specifically copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lithium, and cobalt, providing insights into market dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 and beyond [1][6][11]. Key Points Copper - **Price Forecast**: Expected to remain in the range of $10,000-$11,000 per ton for 2026/2027, with limited near-term upside due to market surplus [1][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: - Anticipation of a potential buyer strike from China if prices exceed $11,000, similar to the Q2 2024 scenario [11][12]. - Significant US copper inventories (760kt) could be released to rebalance the market if LME spreads tighten [12][14]. - Datacentre demand for copper is overestimated, accounting for only 1% of global demand, leading to a revised copper intensity assumption from 24t/MW to 17t/MW [12][14]. Aluminium - **Price Outlook**: Forecasted to decline to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 due to increased supply from Indonesia, which is expected to ramp up production significantly [1][21][22]. - **Market Conditions**: Current high smelter margins are not sustainable as the market is projected to enter a surplus of 1.5-2.0 million tons by 2026/2027 [21][23]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Persistent surplus expected, with prices forecasted to decline to $14,500 per ton by December 2026 [1][25][31]. - **Demand Factors**: Weaker demand from electric vehicle (EV) batteries and continued supply growth from Indonesia are contributing to the surplus [25][30]. Zinc - **Export Dynamics**: Anticipation of China becoming a net exporter of refined zinc by 2026 due to a structural shift in the global market [1][36][37]. - **Production Growth**: Chinese refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly, outpacing domestic demand, leading to a surplus [37][40]. Lithium - **Price Expectations**: Lithium prices are projected to average $8,900 per ton through 2026, driven by oversupply despite rising demand [1][45][46]. - **Market Conditions**: A significant increase in supply is anticipated, with producers planning around 1.3 million tons of new supply by 2028, which is nearly double the required amount to maintain stable inventories [45][46]. Cobalt - **Supply Constraints**: The introduction of export quotas in the DR Congo is expected to push the cobalt market into a deficit in 2026, tightening global supply [1][52][53]. - **Market Impact**: The DR Congo's dominance in global cobalt production (70%) means that any policy changes could significantly affect prices and supply dynamics [52][58]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Current high prices for copper, aluminium, and zinc reflect bullish investor sentiment, influenced by expectations of US Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1][6]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report emphasizes the importance of investment in grid and power infrastructure, which is expected to account for over 60% of copper demand growth from 2025-2030 [14]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the industrial metals market, highlighting key trends, price forecasts, and potential risks for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold, silver, and platinum prices is influenced by potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which are expected to lead to above-average returns for commodities [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement interest-rate cuts, which could positively impact metal prices [1] - The dollar is expected to weaken further, with the FX team suggesting that the current decline is only about halfway through [1] - Historically, periods of dollar weakness correlate with strong performance in commodities, indicating a favorable environment for metal investments [1]

Lower rates → weaker dollar → stronger #Bitcoin 🌍💥 Macro works in favor of crypto right now. ...

All right. So, big ruling here that really boosts the stocks of Alphabet and Apple, two members of that MAG 7, but you're saying more broadly, not only just the MAG 7, but US assets, it may be time to lower your exposure in a portfolio. Why is that right now. Why do you feel that way right now.>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's a good point. I think this whole concept of US asset dominance has been around for some time and we've been talking about that since the beginning of the year. We know roughly half of the eq ...

What's being priced in. I mean, essentially, any time we get clarity, people say, oh, that's priced in. But the clarity is different every single day, whether it's the clarity of what kind of rate we're talking about with tariffs or the clarity of how big the US deficit is going to be, All of these worries that we had earlier in the year that are now being shrugged off as priced in, how do you determine between rational versus numb.I think it is entirely rational because when we look, for example, at what i ...