Weakening dollar, persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and rising market expectations of further Fed rate cuts continue to support investor interest in gold. Gold price has risen 3.58% over the past five days and 55.39% year to date.Strong fundamental indicators could extend gold’s gains into 2026, boosting the case for increased portfolio allocation. According to Reuters, gold prices jumped on Monday, reaching a two-week high, on disappointing U.S. data, rising Fed rate cut expectations and ad ...

Summary of LME Outlook: Navigating Copper's Price Ceiling, Aluminium and Nickel in Surplus, Zinc's Structural Shift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the industrial metals sector, specifically copper, aluminium, nickel, zinc, lithium, and cobalt, providing insights into market dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 and beyond [1][6][11]. Key Points Copper - **Price Forecast**: Expected to remain in the range of $10,000-$11,000 per ton for 2026/2027, with limited near-term upside due to market surplus [1][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: - Anticipation of a potential buyer strike from China if prices exceed $11,000, similar to the Q2 2024 scenario [11][12]. - Significant US copper inventories (760kt) could be released to rebalance the market if LME spreads tighten [12][14]. - Datacentre demand for copper is overestimated, accounting for only 1% of global demand, leading to a revised copper intensity assumption from 24t/MW to 17t/MW [12][14]. Aluminium - **Price Outlook**: Forecasted to decline to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 due to increased supply from Indonesia, which is expected to ramp up production significantly [1][21][22]. - **Market Conditions**: Current high smelter margins are not sustainable as the market is projected to enter a surplus of 1.5-2.0 million tons by 2026/2027 [21][23]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Persistent surplus expected, with prices forecasted to decline to $14,500 per ton by December 2026 [1][25][31]. - **Demand Factors**: Weaker demand from electric vehicle (EV) batteries and continued supply growth from Indonesia are contributing to the surplus [25][30]. Zinc - **Export Dynamics**: Anticipation of China becoming a net exporter of refined zinc by 2026 due to a structural shift in the global market [1][36][37]. - **Production Growth**: Chinese refined zinc production is expected to increase significantly, outpacing domestic demand, leading to a surplus [37][40]. Lithium - **Price Expectations**: Lithium prices are projected to average $8,900 per ton through 2026, driven by oversupply despite rising demand [1][45][46]. - **Market Conditions**: A significant increase in supply is anticipated, with producers planning around 1.3 million tons of new supply by 2028, which is nearly double the required amount to maintain stable inventories [45][46]. Cobalt - **Supply Constraints**: The introduction of export quotas in the DR Congo is expected to push the cobalt market into a deficit in 2026, tightening global supply [1][52][53]. - **Market Impact**: The DR Congo's dominance in global cobalt production (70%) means that any policy changes could significantly affect prices and supply dynamics [52][58]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Current high prices for copper, aluminium, and zinc reflect bullish investor sentiment, influenced by expectations of US Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1][6]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report emphasizes the importance of investment in grid and power infrastructure, which is expected to account for over 60% of copper demand growth from 2025-2030 [14]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the industrial metals market, highlighting key trends, price forecasts, and potential risks for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold, silver, and platinum prices is influenced by potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which are expected to lead to above-average returns for commodities [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement interest-rate cuts, which could positively impact metal prices [1] - The dollar is expected to weaken further, with the FX team suggesting that the current decline is only about halfway through [1] - Historically, periods of dollar weakness correlate with strong performance in commodities, indicating a favorable environment for metal investments [1]

Lower rates → weaker dollar → stronger #Bitcoin 🌍💥 Macro works in favor of crypto right now. ...

All right. So, big ruling here that really boosts the stocks of Alphabet and Apple, two members of that MAG 7, but you're saying more broadly, not only just the MAG 7, but US assets, it may be time to lower your exposure in a portfolio. Why is that right now. Why do you feel that way right now.>> Yeah, I mean, it's it's a good point. I think this whole concept of US asset dominance has been around for some time and we've been talking about that since the beginning of the year. We know roughly half of the eq ...

What's being priced in. I mean, essentially, any time we get clarity, people say, oh, that's priced in. But the clarity is different every single day, whether it's the clarity of what kind of rate we're talking about with tariffs or the clarity of how big the US deficit is going to be, All of these worries that we had earlier in the year that are now being shrugged off as priced in, how do you determine between rational versus numb.I think it is entirely rational because when we look, for example, at what i ...

Why is the Trump administration seemingly as unconcerned as it is about this and I'm including the treasury secretary here. Sure. Thanks so much, Ronnie.And, you know, it's tricky. You know, when we were reporting out this story, one investor told me, watch what they do, not necessarily what they say. So we have had the Treasury secretary, Scott Bersin, out talking about the administration's strong dollar policy, as they've had for for many decades now.But the next question is, do traders do investors reall ...

when we see talk about a weaker dollar at the same time as we see uh talk about an easier monetary policy and so on, we have to understand that one man's debts are another man's assets. And so if you weaken the dollar and you and you produce more money, which is are the things we're considering now that are being considered that that lessens the value of the money that holders of that debt are going to get paid back with. So that is the nature of the tradeoffs that are faced and are inevitable when there's ...