Japan's government submitted three major fiscal bills to parliament on February 20, formalizing a structure of simultaneous tax cuts, record spending, and debt-financed deficits under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The package carries both short-term risks and longer-term implications for Bitcoin and crypto markets. The Fiscal Picture The 2026 budget totals ¥122.3 trillion ($793 billion) in spending — a record for the second straight year — against ¥83.7 trillion in projected tax revenue. The gap will ...

Core Insights - Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital, focusing on macro themes and long-term thematic growth strategies in investment [1] - The investing group led by Michael Kramer, Reading the Markets, provides daily commentary, macro trend education, and community engagement for its members [1] Group 1 - Mott Capital specializes in identifying entry and exit points for investments through analysis of market technicals, fundamentals, and options [1] - The subscription service offers unprecedented access to expert insights at a fraction of the cost compared to similar services [1] Group 2 - Michael Kramer has 30 years of experience in the investment field, including roles as a buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager [1] - The group includes features such as chat for community dialogue and regular Zoom sessions to discuss current investment ideas [1]

Currency Intervention and Market Impact - The significance of yen intervention is highlighted, noting that coordinated intervention is rare, with the last occurrence in 2011 after the earthquake and tsunami [2][3] - A potential coordinated intervention by the US and Japan could indicate a mutual desire to prevent further weakness of the yen, which has recently been disconnected from economic fundamentals [3][4] - Speculators have shifted from being long on the yen to short, which could lead to increased volatility in currency markets, reminiscent of past market spillovers [4] US and Canada Trade Relations - Recent developments indicate that Canada will not pursue a free trade deal with China, following threats from President Trump to impose tariffs on Canada [9][10] - Canada is attempting to diversify its trade relationships outside of the US but faces resistance, complicating its trade negotiations [11] - The US and China are seen as needing each other for trade, with a trade truce currently in place, although tensions remain with tariffs on other countries [10]

Core Insights - Hedge funds have established one of their largest bearish positions against the Japanese yen, with approximately 85,000 net short contracts, indicating increasing pressure on the currency [1][2] - The unwinding of the yen carry trade, which has reached around $500 billion since 2011, has significant implications for various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies [3][4] Group 1: Yen Short Positions - Hedge funds currently hold around 85,000 net short yen contracts, marking one of the most substantial bearish positions since 2024 [2] - The yen has been used as a cheap funding currency for carry trades, leading to a massive increase in short positions as traders anticipate further declines [3] Group 2: Impact on Cryptocurrencies - The rise in Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year JGB reaching approximately 1.84%, has triggered a sell-off across multiple asset classes, resulting in over $640 million in crypto liquidations [5] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $87,000, with around $527 million in long positions liquidated in a single day due to forced deleveraging [6] - The correlation between the yen's performance and cryptocurrency markets highlights how foreign exchange stress can impact riskier assets like Bitcoin [4][7]

While the crypto market has been obsessing over the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell's next pivot, there's a big old storm brewing on the other side of the world. A storm that history suggests could send Bitcoin crashing by 20% or more in a matter of days. We're staring down the barrel of a potential $4 trillion liquidity shock.But unlike the Fed, this central bank isn't looking to print money. They're looking to drain it. The date you need to circle in red on your calendar is the 19th of December because ...

Market Overview - The S&P BSE Sensex fell over 300 points, trading below 84,300, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped below 25,750 [1][14] - The Nifty and Sensex have declined about 0.9% over the past three sessions, pressured by worries over foreign fund outflows and the rupee's slide to record lows amid stalled progress on an India-U.S. trade agreement [2][14] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) returned to the buy side, snapping an eight-session selling streak, purchasing equities worth approximately Rs 1,172 crore on December 17, while domestic institutional investors were also net buyers with purchases of roughly Rs 769 crore [4][14] - Despite FII buying and net institutional buying, the market drifted down, possibly due to FIIs increasing their short positions, indicating a near-term sell on rally strategy [6][14] Economic Indicators - Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Japanese central bank to raise rates, which could trigger a reversal of the 'yen carry trade' and lead to further selling by FIIs [7][14] - The Indian rupee edged higher, rising 6 paise to 90.32 against the U.S. dollar, as investors assessed the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in currency markets [13][14] Global Market Trends - Asian stocks fell, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan dropping 0.5%, and major markets like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan experiencing declines [8][14] - U.S. equity futures showed slight gains after a tech-led decline on Wall Street, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2% [8][14] Commodity Market Developments - Oil prices advanced as traders weighed the risk of tighter global supply due to potential new sanctions on Russian crude exports and disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11][12][14] - Precious metals cooled after a strong rally, with spot gold slipping 0.3% to $4,330 an ounce and silver easing 0.2% to $66.17 [9][14]

Core Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with modest job creation and a rising unemployment rate, which may lead to reduced disposable income for households [2][3] - Retail investors, particularly in altcoin markets, are more vulnerable to these economic changes, as they typically invest surplus cash into risk assets [3][4] - Institutional investors are also facing challenges, particularly due to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which could impact global liquidity and risk asset exposure [7] Group 1: Labor Market and Income Trends - The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates slower wage growth and a rising unemployment rate, suggesting weaker income momentum for households [2] - Disposable income is crucial for crypto adoption, as retail investors allocate surplus cash to risk assets; stagnating wages and job insecurity may lead to reduced discretionary spending [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Retail and Altcoin Markets - Retail participation is more significant in altcoin markets compared to Bitcoin, making smaller tokens more susceptible to reduced retail investment flows [3] - If disposable income decreases, altcoins are likely to experience liquidity issues and prolonged price declines, as retail investors may need to liquidate positions to cover expenses [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Investor Dynamics - Institutional investors are becoming more cautious due to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which could disrupt global liquidity conditions and affect risk assets [7] - Rising borrowing costs in Japan may lead institutions to reduce their global exposure, impacting crypto, equities, and credit markets [7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Drivers - Asset prices can still rise despite weakening incomes if monetary policy becomes more supportive, as a cooling labor market may allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates [5] - Rallies driven by liquidity are more fragile and sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, which is particularly relevant for the crypto market [6]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with major digital assets falling sharply and liquidations increasing, undermining expectations for a year-end "Santa rally" [1][12] - Bitcoin's price dropped over 3% in 24 hours, falling from nearly $90,000 to approximately $85,833, marking its lowest level since December 1 [2][13] - Ethereum and XRP also saw declines, with Ethereum down more than 4% to around $2,955 and XRP falling roughly 4.5% to $1.90, its weakest price this month [3][12] Liquidations - The sell-off resulted in a surge of liquidations, with approximately $573 million in crypto positions wiped out in the last 24 hours, predominantly from long positions totaling around $486 million [4][5] - Bitcoin led the liquidations with about $205 million, followed by Ethereum at approximately $156 million [5][4] Stock Market Reaction - The overall cryptocurrency market lost more than 3% of its value in a single day, contrasting with minimal movement in stock markets, where the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% and the Nasdaq slipped roughly 0.3% [7][12] Impact on Crypto-Related Stocks - Crypto-related stocks faced significant pressure, with Bitcoin miner CleanSpark falling about 15%, crypto exchange Gemini down 12%, and Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies down roughly 8% [8][14] - Coinbase shares slid more than 5%, while Robinhood experienced a decline of less than 2% [8][14] Market Sentiment and Accusations - As prices fell, there were accusations of coordinated selling on social media, with claims that entities like Binance and Wintermute were involved in dumping large amounts of Bitcoin, leading to over $100 million in long positions being liquidated in minutes [9][14] - Some analysts argued that the sell-off was a result of normal liquidity flows and user-driven selling rather than manipulation [9][14] International Developments - Traders are monitoring developments from Japan, where the Bank of Japan has indicated it may start selling portions of its exchange-traded fund holdings as early as January, potentially affecting market dynamics [10][11] - The anticipated gradual sell-off of about $2.1 million to $2.3 million per year aims to avoid unsettling markets, with implications for the yen carry trade as Japanese bond yields rise [11][10]

分组1 - MongoDB's stock surged over 25% following a stellar earnings report, which was highlighted by Goldman Sachs as a standout quarter [1][2] - The company reported a revenue increase of approximately 19% year-over-year, beating street expectations for adjusted earnings per share [2][3] - Despite a GAAP earnings loss of 2 cents, there is potential for the company to become GAAP profitable in the next two to three quarters, which would be significant [3] 分组2 - MongoDB's Atlas product offering constitutes around 75% of total revenue, with increasing demand driven by artificial intelligence [4] - The CEO indicated that AI adoption within their platform is still in early stages, with growth primarily coming from European and Middle Eastern markets [5][6] - Analysts have issued numerous price target boosts, indicating that the AI tailwind is not fully reflected in the current valuation, suggesting further upside potential [8] 分组3 - Concerns have arisen in the Chinese bond markets, particularly regarding China Vanka seeking an extension on bond repayments, which is significant as it is one of the major home builders yet to default [9][10] - The bond market has seen dramatic drops, with one bond falling as much as 22% in a single session [10] - The Chinese government has not taken aggressive actions to stabilize the property market, which could have broader implications for global demand and economic conditions [12][15] 分组4 - The commodity market is experiencing a sell-off across metals and oil, with natural gas showing some resilience [24][30] - Natural gas prices are currently around $4.90, with potential for significant movement based on weather conditions and AI narratives in the energy sector [26][28] - The market dynamics indicate a potential for natural gas to rise if demand increases due to colder weather and snow [29]

Some people were asking me about the Yen Carry trade so I explained it at a high level in last night's YouTube. https://t.co/oY1xYs7A49 ...