While the crypto market has been obsessing over the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell's next pivot, there's a big old storm brewing on the other side of the world. A storm that history suggests could send Bitcoin crashing by 20% or more in a matter of days. We're staring down the barrel of a potential $4 trillion liquidity shock.But unlike the Fed, this central bank isn't looking to print money. They're looking to drain it. The date you need to circle in red on your calendar is the 19th of December because ...

Market Overview - The S&P BSE Sensex fell over 300 points, trading below 84,300, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped below 25,750 [1][14] - The Nifty and Sensex have declined about 0.9% over the past three sessions, pressured by worries over foreign fund outflows and the rupee's slide to record lows amid stalled progress on an India-U.S. trade agreement [2][14] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) returned to the buy side, snapping an eight-session selling streak, purchasing equities worth approximately Rs 1,172 crore on December 17, while domestic institutional investors were also net buyers with purchases of roughly Rs 769 crore [4][14] - Despite FII buying and net institutional buying, the market drifted down, possibly due to FIIs increasing their short positions, indicating a near-term sell on rally strategy [6][14] Economic Indicators - Concerns exist regarding the potential for the Japanese central bank to raise rates, which could trigger a reversal of the 'yen carry trade' and lead to further selling by FIIs [7][14] - The Indian rupee edged higher, rising 6 paise to 90.32 against the U.S. dollar, as investors assessed the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in currency markets [13][14] Global Market Trends - Asian stocks fell, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan dropping 0.5%, and major markets like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan experiencing declines [8][14] - U.S. equity futures showed slight gains after a tech-led decline on Wall Street, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2% [8][14] Commodity Market Developments - Oil prices advanced as traders weighed the risk of tighter global supply due to potential new sanctions on Russian crude exports and disruptions from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11][12][14] - Precious metals cooled after a strong rally, with spot gold slipping 0.3% to $4,330 an ounce and silver easing 0.2% to $66.17 [9][14]

Core Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with modest job creation and a rising unemployment rate, which may lead to reduced disposable income for households [2][3] - Retail investors, particularly in altcoin markets, are more vulnerable to these economic changes, as they typically invest surplus cash into risk assets [3][4] - Institutional investors are also facing challenges, particularly due to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which could impact global liquidity and risk asset exposure [7] Group 1: Labor Market and Income Trends - The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report indicates slower wage growth and a rising unemployment rate, suggesting weaker income momentum for households [2] - Disposable income is crucial for crypto adoption, as retail investors allocate surplus cash to risk assets; stagnating wages and job insecurity may lead to reduced discretionary spending [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Retail and Altcoin Markets - Retail participation is more significant in altcoin markets compared to Bitcoin, making smaller tokens more susceptible to reduced retail investment flows [3] - If disposable income decreases, altcoins are likely to experience liquidity issues and prolonged price declines, as retail investors may need to liquidate positions to cover expenses [3][4] Group 3: Institutional Investor Dynamics - Institutional investors are becoming more cautious due to potential rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which could disrupt global liquidity conditions and affect risk assets [7] - Rising borrowing costs in Japan may lead institutions to reduce their global exposure, impacting crypto, equities, and credit markets [7] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Drivers - Asset prices can still rise despite weakening incomes if monetary policy becomes more supportive, as a cooling labor market may allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates [5] - Rallies driven by liquidity are more fragile and sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, which is particularly relevant for the crypto market [6]

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP crash: Crypto markets slid sharply on Monday, dashing hopes for a year-end “Santa rally” as prices for major digital assets fell and liquidations mounted across the market.Bitcoin Price (BTC USD) Today Drops Below $86,000 as Liquidations SurgeBitcoin dropped more than 3% over the past 24 hours, falling from nearly $90,000 early Monday to about $85,833, its lowest level since December 1, as per CoinGecko data. Ethereum (ETH) and XRP Fall Sharply Amid Broad Crypto Sell-OffEthereum also ...

分组1 - MongoDB's stock surged over 25% following a stellar earnings report, which was highlighted by Goldman Sachs as a standout quarter [1][2] - The company reported a revenue increase of approximately 19% year-over-year, beating street expectations for adjusted earnings per share [2][3] - Despite a GAAP earnings loss of 2 cents, there is potential for the company to become GAAP profitable in the next two to three quarters, which would be significant [3] 分组2 - MongoDB's Atlas product offering constitutes around 75% of total revenue, with increasing demand driven by artificial intelligence [4] - The CEO indicated that AI adoption within their platform is still in early stages, with growth primarily coming from European and Middle Eastern markets [5][6] - Analysts have issued numerous price target boosts, indicating that the AI tailwind is not fully reflected in the current valuation, suggesting further upside potential [8] 分组3 - Concerns have arisen in the Chinese bond markets, particularly regarding China Vanka seeking an extension on bond repayments, which is significant as it is one of the major home builders yet to default [9][10] - The bond market has seen dramatic drops, with one bond falling as much as 22% in a single session [10] - The Chinese government has not taken aggressive actions to stabilize the property market, which could have broader implications for global demand and economic conditions [12][15] 分组4 - The commodity market is experiencing a sell-off across metals and oil, with natural gas showing some resilience [24][30] - Natural gas prices are currently around $4.90, with potential for significant movement based on weather conditions and AI narratives in the energy sector [26][28] - The market dynamics indicate a potential for natural gas to rise if demand increases due to colder weather and snow [29]

Some people were asking me about the Yen Carry trade so I explained it at a high level in last night's YouTube. https://t.co/oY1xYs7A49 ...

Market Sentiment - The beginning of December has seen a shift in market sentiment, with technology and cryptocurrency sectors experiencing declines after a solid rally in the previous week due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has adopted a more hawkish tone, raising expectations for a December rate hike, which has contributed to the current risk-off sentiment in the market [2][3] Impact on Carry Trade - Concerns are growing regarding the unwinding of the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. A potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan could lead to repatriation of funds back to Japan [3][4] - The ten-year yield in Japan has reached a 17-year high, which may further exacerbate the unwinding of the carry trade and impact liquidity-sensitive sectors like technology and cryptocurrency [3][4] NVIDIA and Market Concerns - NVIDIA has faced significant pressure in the market, but recent comments suggest a potential turnaround in sentiment, although concerns regarding secular financing remain prevalent [6][7][8] - The latest earnings report from NVIDIA was positive, indicating strong performance despite market nervousness surrounding secular financing and its implications for the ecosystem [11][13] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing challenges, with institutional demand remaining weak. November saw significant outflows from ETFs, totaling 3.48 billion, marking one of the worst months for the sector [15][16] - The unwinding of the yen carry trade is causing fears of reduced liquidity, which is particularly detrimental to the cryptocurrency market [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The yen carry trade is expected to make a comeback due to the anticipated slower interest-rate hikes under Sanae Takaichi's leadership, which could attract traders back to borrowing the low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies [1][2][4]. Currency Market Reaction - Japan's currency has depreciated approximately 2% against G-10 currencies this week, driven by expectations of Takaichi's pro-stimulus policies leading to a delayed timeline for the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy tightening [2][4]. - The yen is nearing a six-month low against the dollar, with market concerns about increased government spending and inflation under Takaichi's potential administration [4][6]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market participants have reduced their expectations for immediate policy tightening, with swaps indicating a 22% chance of a BOJ rate hike at the upcoming meeting, down from about 57% prior to the leadership vote [6]. - Etsuro Honda, an advisor to Takaichi, suggested that a rate increase this month would be premature, advocating for a more suitable timing in December [5]. Carry Trade Dynamics - Analysts believe that if Takaichi maintains her stance that a weak yen is not detrimental to Japan's economy and opposes rate hikes, the carry trade could resume, leading to further yen depreciation [8]. - Masayuki Nakajima from Mizuho Bank predicts that yen selling may accelerate, potentially pushing the currency towards 180 per euro [7].

Group 1 - The investing group Reading the Markets, led by Michael Kramer, provides daily commentary and videos to help members understand market drivers and trends [1] - The group offers education on macro trends, interest rates, and currency movements to assist members in making informed investment decisions [1] - Subscribers benefit from unprecedented access to expertise at a low subscription price compared to similar services [1] Group 2 - Michael Kramer is affiliated with Mott Capital Management but operates independently, providing his own analyses and opinions [3] - The report emphasizes that opinions and analyses are solely those of Michael Kramer and should not be considered as specific investment recommendations [3] - There is no guarantee of completeness or accuracy in the information presented, and past performance does not indicate future results [3]

Market Outlook - Yen carry trade marked the bottom in 2024 [1] - Geopolitical tensions (WWIII situation) marked the bottom in 2025 [1] Investment Strategy - Expectation of parabolic gains following the identified market bottoms [1]