Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes believes the U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to adopt yield curve control, which involves fixing interest rates on government bonds by purchasing unlimited amounts of debt [1][5]. Group 1: Yield Curve Control - Yield curve control is defined as a policy where a central bank fixes the rate on government bonds [1]. - The Federal Reserve may expand its balance sheet by purchasing government bonds until bond prices rise and yields fall to a predetermined level [2]. - The Bank of Japan has successfully implemented this approach for nearly two decades, capping rates at desired levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Third Mandate - Hayes indicates that the Federal Reserve is signaling a potential move towards yield curve control through discussions of a "third mandate" in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which aims to maintain moderate government bond levels [5]. - The interpretation of what constitutes "moderate levels" is left ambiguous, allowing for flexibility in implementation [5]. Group 3: Political Influence - Former President Trump is cited as advocating for low government bond yields and increased money supply to stimulate the economy, which aligns with the potential for yield curve control [6]. Group 4: Impact on Cryptocurrency - Hayes predicts that the adoption of yield curve control will likely lead to an increase in the value of Bitcoin and other digital assets, as these assets tend to perform well when credit expands [7]. - The comparison is made to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that similar monetary policies could lead to significant upward movements in Bitcoin prices [8].

Core Insights - The last two decades have seen unprecedented changes in monetary and fiscal policies, particularly highlighted by the concept of "helicopter money" which was once considered absurd but became a reality during the pandemic [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Changes - The response to the pandemic has defied conventional expectations regarding monetary and fiscal policies, indicating a significant shift in economic strategies [1]

Market Overview - The market indexes are relatively stable, but there is a noticeable increase in the dollar and the VIX, indicating a potential shift towards defensiveness in the market [1][3] - The dollar index (DXY) has been holding in the 97-98 range, which is crucial for future movements [3] Energy Sector - The energy sector has shown signs of life recently, with traditional oil companies like Exxon and Devon starting to perform well [4][5] - There is a concern that the strength in the energy sector may come at the expense of consumer discretionary and banking sectors, which have been leading the market [5] Defense Stocks - European defense stocks have performed well throughout the year, with companies like Rhyatel reaching new highs [6] Global Market Trends - Despite some fatigue in the S&P, global markets are showing strength, with new highs in markets like NIK and China [7] - There are indications of a global economic reacceleration, as seen in the performance of Chinese stocks and commodities like copper [9] Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates - Bond yields have remained stable over the past two years, with the long end of the curve not breaking higher despite opportunities [10][14] - The mortgage backdrop has improved significantly, with 30-year fixed rates dropping from 7.5% to around 6.25% [13] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on sectors like industrials, financials, and technology, with a particular interest in banks and semiconductors [17][18] - The current environment is unique, as the Fed is cutting rates while banks are at all-time highs, which historically has been a positive signal for banks [18]

Core Viewpoint - Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will reach $3.4 million by 2028, contingent on significant monetary policy changes led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which could result in extensive money printing and a transformation of the global monetary system [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Predictions - Hayes' prediction is based on an estimated $15.229 trillion in combined Federal Reserve and commercial banking credit growth through 2028 [1]. - The model assumes the Federal Reserve will purchase 50% of new Treasury debt issuance, with bank credit expanding by $7.569 trillion during Trump's remaining term [2]. - Hayes anticipates a "once in a century change" in the global monetary architecture due to these policies [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Control - Hayes refers to Bessent as "Buffalo Bill" for his expected dismantling of the Eurodollar banking system, which involves controlling foreign non-dollar deposits estimated at $34 trillion globally [3]. - The Trump administration requires four seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to influence short-term rates through the Interest on Reserve Balances mechanism [3]. - Potential allies for Trump's camp include Governors Bowman and Waller, along with newly confirmed Stephen Miran, bringing the total to three supporters [4]. Group 3: Legal and Political Developments - The Department of Justice is reviewing potential bank fraud charges against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which Hayes believes could lead to her resignation by early 2026 [5]. - Trump's team plans to replace Fed district bank presidents during the February 2026 elections, aiming for control of the Federal Open Market Committee [5]. Group 4: Stablecoin Infrastructure - Hayes outlines a strategy for redirecting $10-13 trillion in Eurodollar deposits by threatening to withdraw Federal Reserve support for foreign banks during financial crises [6]. - This policy shift would likely push Eurodollar depositors towards compliant stablecoin issuers like Tether, which invest in U.S. bank deposits and Treasury bills [6].

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes predicts that a second term for Donald Trump could lead to significant changes in US monetary policy, which he believes would favor Bitcoin as a result of these shifts [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Control - Hayes argues that a new administration would seek to exert direct control over the Federal Reserve to re-industrialize the economy and manage national debt by influencing its leadership [2]. - He suggests that this control could be achieved by early 2026 through strategic appointments and potential resignations, creating a dominant voting bloc on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Yield Curve Control - The ultimate goal of this strategy is to implement Yield Curve Control, which would involve capping interest rates to finance economic initiatives, similar to strategies used during World War II [4]. - This policy would focus on incentivizing lending to small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which represent nearly half of US employment [4]. Group 3: Credit Expansion and Bitcoin Valuation - Hayes contrasts this proposed economic strategy with post-2008 quantitative easing, labeling it "QE 4 Poor People" for its focus on benefiting "Main Street" rather than large corporations [5]. - The strategy may require a massive credit expansion, potentially exceeding $15 trillion by 2028, which could lead to significant dollar debasement and drive investors towards hard assets like Bitcoin [5]. - Based on credit growth models during the pandemic, Hayes speculates a Bitcoin price of $3.4 million by 2028, emphasizing confidence in the asset's overall direction despite the speculative nature of the figure [6].

Market Overview - Asian markets showed mixed results following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with low expectations for concrete agreements on tariffs and technology supply chains [2][8] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index remained largely unchanged, while mainland China's CSI 300 saw a marginal gain, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a slight loss [3] - Japanese markets ended lower, influenced by a firmer yen, and the US faces a critical September 30th deadline to pass a funding bill, which could introduce further volatility [3] Japan's Bond Market - Japan's 30-year government bond yield climbed to 3.18%, an increase of 3 basis points, amidst rising yields reaching multi-decade highs [4] - The increase in yields is attributed to investor concerns over Japan's fiscal policy ahead of Senate elections and the nation's high debt-to-GDP ratio [4] - The Bank of Japan's decision to abandon Yield Curve Control in 2024 and reduce JGB purchases has allowed market forces to drive yields higher, posing challenges for carry traders [5] EUR/USD Currency Pair - The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable drop, falling below the 1.1750 mark, primarily driven by a strengthening US Dollar following the Federal Reserve's cautious rate cut outlook [6][8] - The European Central Bank maintained its key interest rates, but concerns over political turmoil in France and a recent credit rating downgrade by Fitch have weighed on the Euro [7] Ukraine's Defense Strategy - Ukrainian forces are rapidly integrating robotic units into frontline brigades to enhance operations and protect soldiers, aiming to gain a tactical advantage [9] - Plans include deploying 15,000 unmanned systems by 2025, with a focus on domestic production to develop a modern army [10] - The initiative has already shown results, with reports of successful robot-only assaults conducted in Kharkiv Oblast [10]

Core Insights - The VettaFi Q3 Fixed Income Symposium occurred shortly after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year, highlighting the need for investors to actively manage their fixed income exposure [1] - Active ETFs are positioned to fill the income void created by lower rates, as discussed by industry experts [2] Market Reactions - The bond market initially reacted positively to the Fed's dovish policy, but this sentiment reversed before the press conference, indicating that the first market move is often incorrect [3] - Rate cuts are expected to remain a primary driver for bond markets, with potential changes in the Fed's composition raising questions about portfolio positioning [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to overweight duration as the bond market approaches an inflection point, influenced by economic data and potential changes in the Fed's membership [5] - Portfolio positioning should consider the concept of yield curve control, especially in light of Fed uncertainties [6] Active ETF Opportunities - Thornburg offers two active ETFs: the Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF (TPLS) for core exposure with flexibility in various market conditions, and the Thornburg Multi Sector Bond ETF (TMB) for income diversification and active management [7][8] - The TMB fund is designed to provide high-yield-like returns with a higher quality portfolio and less volatility, making it suitable for diverse market environments [9]

Group 1 - Veteran crypto investor Arthur Hayes predicts a Bitcoin price rally to $1 million due to the US Federal Reserve considering a "third mandate" aimed at yield curve control [1][4] - The third mandate, which includes maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates, could lead to significant changes in monetary policy [2][5] - The Trump administration's potential implementation of the third mandate may result in increased liquidity in the market, benefiting risk-on assets like US equities and cryptocurrencies [3][5] Group 2 - The introduction of yield curve control could lead to lower long-term interest rates, reducing government borrowing costs and pushing capital towards Bitcoin as a hedge against the financial system [5] - Other veteran investors, such as Robert Kiyosaki, have also expressed bullish sentiments regarding Bitcoin's future price, aligning with Hayes' predictions [4]

With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!YCC -> $BTC = $1m https://t.co/jlPQZJ0cHm ...

Mark, let's find out what top of mind for you. We're working towards a Fed meeting. Of course, markets seem pretty peaceful with that still on the horizon, but you're spotting some dollar softness that you're putting down to the to the migrant story. We'll be back to talking about steepness and dollar softness on the back of that then. We very much are talking about that.I think one of the problems going into this week's Fed meeting, which is what everyone is eyeing, is that the trades have already played o ...