关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 赵宇、陈达飞、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （1.24-1.30） 重点推介 热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ 1.全球债市恐慌再现，美国上演"股债汇三杀" 近期海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"，触发因素是美欧格陵兰争端、丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美债投 资、高市早苗提前选举。流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 2.美债短期风险可控，长期根本矛盾未解决 2026年美国紧财政政治动力已减弱下，减税、增加供给侧投资，令赤字率或上升至6.8%。关税风险、美 国引发的地缘风险或长期存在，美债或不再安全。 3.常规政策区间，不宜期待联储QE或YCC 为缓和债务风险，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施，压低实际利率。在非战争或非零利率状态下， 美联储极不可能通过QE或YCC压降美债利率。 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"速见系列" 第21期: 《1月FOMC例会解读与展望》 2 、"洞见系列" 第112期: 《美国通胀风险有多大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Kishi Sanae's economic policy, termed "Sanae Economics," is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0," as it emphasizes fiscal policy over monetary policy, reflecting a shift in focus from combating deflation to addressing inflation [2][13][15] - Kishi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][16] - Japan's real GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, with fiscal stimulus contributing approximately 0.25% to GDP growth [3][19] Group 2 - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a responsible proactive fiscal policy, which includes a stimulus package, energy subsidies, and tax relief for low-income households, while also aiming to increase defense spending [15][24] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to face pressure to raise interest rates due to rising inflation and a weak yen, with market expectations for two rate hikes in 2026 [3][34][37] - Kishi's political constraints include a lower approval rating compared to Abe and a weaker parliamentary majority, which may hinder the implementation of her economic policies [7][13]

With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!YCC -> $BTC = $1m https://t.co/jlPQZJ0cHm ...

Market Analysis - The market is observing potential yield curve targeting by authorities, specifically aiming to "contain long yields" [1] - Tax cuts are being implemented, potentially influencing the yield curve [1] - The actions described resemble yield curve control (YCC) strategies [1]