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申万宏源:早苗经济学与安倍经济学有何异同?
智通财经网· 2025-10-25 23:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Kishi Sanae's economic policy, termed "Sanae Economics," is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0," as it emphasizes fiscal policy over monetary policy, reflecting a shift in focus from combating deflation to addressing inflation [2][13][15] - Kishi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][16] - Japan's real GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, with fiscal stimulus contributing approximately 0.25% to GDP growth [3][19] Group 2 - Kishi's economic policies are characterized by a responsible proactive fiscal policy, which includes a stimulus package, energy subsidies, and tax relief for low-income households, while also aiming to increase defense spending [15][24] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to face pressure to raise interest rates due to rising inflation and a weak yen, with market expectations for two rate hikes in 2026 [3][34][37] - Kishi's political constraints include a lower approval rating compared to Abe and a weaker parliamentary majority, which may hinder the implementation of her economic policies [7][13]
X @Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes· 2025-09-16 21:11
With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!YCC -> $BTC = $1m https://t.co/jlPQZJ0cHm ...
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2025-07-12 12:21
Market Analysis - The market is observing potential yield curve targeting by authorities, specifically aiming to "contain long yields" [1] - Tax cuts are being implemented, potentially influencing the yield curve [1] - The actions described resemble yield curve control (YCC) strategies [1]