RT Kellan Grenier (@kellangrenier)Don't take my word for it, listen to @SecScottBessent - who is openly targeting the yield curve; “contain long yields” while tax cuts reload.That’s yield suppression (YCC) in everything but name. ...

更为深远的影响在于，这将严重限制美联储自由制定反通胀货币政策的能力，形成财政主导格局。美联 储的实际独立性近年来已受到侵蚀，而短期国债发行量的激增将进一步剥夺央行自由制定货币政策的空 间。 短债为何是通胀的"助燃剂" 未来数年，通胀上升似乎难以避免，而美国财政部增加短债发行量的决定，很可能成为推升通胀的结构 性因素。 国库券作为期限在一年以下的债务工具，比长期债券更具"货币性"。历史数据显示，国库券在未偿债务 总额中所占比例的升降，往往领先于通胀的长期起落，这更像是因果关系，而非简单的相关性。 美国财政部倾向于增加短期债券发行的策略，正在实质性削弱美联储的独立性，货币政策制定权或将事 实上转移至财政部门。 本周，美国财政部长贝森特明确表态，倾向于更多依赖短期债务融资，这一立场与其此前批评前任过度 依赖短期国债的表态形成反差，该策略实质上相当于财政版量化宽松政策。 从短期看，财政部转向更多发行短期国债将刺激风险资产价格进一步脱离长期公允价值，并在结构上推 高通胀水平。 此外，近年来回购市场的爆发式增长也放大了短债的影响。由于清算机制的改善和流动性的加深，回购 交易本身也变得更像货币。 国库券在回购交易中通常能获 ...

物价方面，消费者物价指数CPI（不含生鲜食品）同比涨幅约为3.5%，主要受薪资上涨、过去进口价格 上涨以及食品价格上涨的影响。随着这些因素逐渐减弱，预计短期内核心CPI通胀率将保持低迷。然 而，中长期来看，伴随劳动力短缺加剧和经济增速回升，核心CPI通胀有望逐步接近2%的目标水平。 谈及全球经济环境，特别是贸易政策不确定性，植田和男强调了密切监控的重要性。他表示，尽管当前 经济数据显示出一定的稳健性，但全球市场情绪正变得更加悲观。面对中东局势等外部风险因素，植田 和男承诺将采取灵活应对策略，包括在必要时增加债券购买或开展固定利率债券购买行动，以支持经济 增长。 最后，植田和男重申了日本央行致力于实现可持续、稳定的通胀目标，并表示如果经济和物价持续改 善，将继续调整利率。但他也警告说，在判断前景时不应带有先入之见，必须基于最新的经济数据做出 决策。 面对全球经济的不确定性和风险，特别是贸易政策对金融市场的影响，日本央行表示将灵活调整国债购 买计划，必要时增加购债或实施固定利率购买操作，确保国债市场的稳定。 在今日举行的新闻发布会上，日本央行（BOJ）行长植田和男详细阐述了央行未来货币政策的方向，并 表达了对国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy interest rate at 0.5% this week, with a focus on potential adjustments to its bond purchasing plan [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue reducing its government bond purchases at a pace of 400 billion yen per quarter until March 2026 [1] - After the end of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that government bond yields should be determined by the market [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that after March 2026, the Bank of Japan may slow the reduction pace to 200 billion yen per quarter and gradually decrease monthly bond purchases to approximately 2.1 trillion yen by March 2027, potentially halting further reductions thereafter [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights unprecedented capital outflows from Japanese stock funds, amounting to $11.8 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow on record [1] - Bank stocks in Japan, despite being the best-performing sector globally over the past three years, are showing concerning trends as they fail to rise in tandem with increasing Japanese government bond yields [1][3] - Concerns regarding the Bank of Japan's policy normalization, including the end of negative interest rates and yield curve control, are leading to fears of a rapid tightening of financial conditions [3] Group 2 - The rapid rise in bond yields is interpreted as a sign of doubts about Japan's economic growth potential and resilience, which counteracts the benefits of improved bank net interest margins [3] - After three years of strong performance, the valuation attractiveness of the banking sector has diminished, prompting significant capital to lock in profits amid rising yields [3] - The current situation in the Japanese market, particularly for bank stocks, reflects a critical contradiction where the theoretical benefits of monetary policy shifts are overshadowed by deep concerns about economic outlook and financial stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].

Group 1 - The Japanese 20-year government bond auction experienced its worst results since 2012, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.5 times and tail spreads reaching the highest level since 1987, indicating a significant decline in market demand [1][2] - The yield on long-term Japanese government bonds has risen sharply, with the 10-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds yielding 1.573%, 2.566%, 2.999%, and 3.336% respectively, reflecting increases of approximately 0.28, 0.34, 0.35, and 0.39 percentage points since the beginning of the month [1][2] - Japan's government debt stands at over 230% of GDP, the highest in the world, raising concerns about the country's fiscal health compared to Greece, which has a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 150% [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) introduction of yield curve control (YCC) in 2016 has led to the central bank becoming the largest holder of Japanese government bonds, which has implications for market dynamics and pricing [3][4] - The BOJ's decision to end the negative interest rate policy and begin reducing its bond purchases has contributed to a lack of demand for Japanese bonds, leading to a "buyer strike" in the market [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the current situation in the Japanese bond market may reflect broader global liquidity tightening, with potential spillover effects on U.S. financial markets [5][6]

继美债收益率直逼高点后，日本长期国债也似乎陷入了"无人接盘"的危险境地。 5月2 3日，日本超长期国债收益率有所回落，但仍处于高位。截至5月2 3日1 9时，日本3 0年期 国债收益率下跌1 . 7 8%至3 . 0 4 1%；同时，日本4 0年期国债收益率下跌1 . 7%至3 . 5 2 2%。 | 名称 = | 债券收益率 | 前個 | Inte | 低 涨跌; | 涨跌幅 ⇒ | 时间 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ● 日本10年期国债 | 1.520 | 1.550 | 1.573 | 1.520 -0.030 | -1.94% | 19:19:01 © | | ● 日本15年期国债 | 2.466 | 2.482 | 2.506 2.450 | -0.016 | -0.64% | 18:58:25 © | | ● 日本20年期国债 | 2.523 | 2.557 | 2.606 2.518 | -0.034 | -1.33% | 19:19:57 0 | | ● 日本30年期国债 | 3.041 | 3.096 | 3.178 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent poor performance of long-term government bond auctions in Japan and the United States has raised concerns in global markets, leading to fears of a potential crisis in the bond market, with questions about who will absorb the "unwanted bonds" [1][4][11]. Group 1: Japan's Bond Market - The recent auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds was disappointing, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987 [1][4]. - Japanese insurance companies are reluctant to purchase long-term bonds due to significant losses from rising interest rates, leading to a trend of net selling by domestic investors [4][5]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, significantly higher than the U.S. at 120%, yet the bond market has not faced a crisis, largely due to the Bank of Japan's support [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, marking the second time yields have surpassed 5%, indicating weak demand [8][9]. - The rising yields in U.S. bonds have led to a significant drop in stock markets, with the VIX index rising by 15% and the dollar index falling below 100 [8][9]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the potential for further tax cuts are contributing to the weak demand for U.S. bonds, as investors are wary of increasing debt levels [9][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that if market conditions stabilize, the critical question will be who will absorb the government bonds, particularly in light of the Bank of Japan's potential need to reconsider its yield curve control (YCC) policy [11][12]. - The U.S. government may need to adjust its bond issuance strategy to avoid overwhelming the market during sensitive periods, while the Federal Reserve could consider implementing YCC to maintain interest rate stability [13].

Group 1 - Japan's 20-year government bond auction on May 20 was disappointing, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a tail difference of 1.14, the highest since 1987 [1][3] - The demand for U.S. 20-year bonds was also weak following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, leading to rising long-term interest rates, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.6% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [1][7] - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a trend where foreign investors are buying while domestic investors are selling, with life insurance companies facing significant losses and refusing to purchase long-term bonds [1][4] Group 2 - The poor performance of the Japanese bond auction is attributed to two main factors: regulatory changes prompting insurance companies to buy long-term bonds and an oversupply of long-term bonds due to excessive issuance by the government [3][4] - The Bank of Japan's long-term bond holdings have decreased by 2.2% to 576.6 trillion yen since last July, and it plans to reduce bond purchases further, which may impact market stability [4][10] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, significantly higher than the U.S. at 120%, yet the Japanese bond market has not faced a crisis due to the Bank of Japan's support [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20-year bonds with a final yield of 5.047%, indicating weak demand and a need for higher yields to attract buyers [7][8] - The market is concerned about the impact of rising yields on the stock market, with historical data suggesting that significant increases in yields can lead to stock market pressure [8][9] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government may need to adjust its bond issuance strategy to alleviate market pressure, and the Federal Reserve could consider yield curve control (YCC) as a potential measure [9][10]