证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化学制药 博瑞医药（688166） 在研管线进展点评：BGM0504 片 IND 申请 获受理，稀缺双靶点口服多肽即将进入临床 买入（上调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,180 | 1,283 | 1,295 | 1,490 | 1,762 | | 同比（%） | 15.94 | 8.74 | 0.95 | 15.11 | 18.21 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 202.47 | 189.17 | 261.90 | 302.94 | 433.39 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (6.57) | 38.45 | 15.67 | 43.06 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 1.03 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 144.41 | 154.57 | 111.64 | 96.52 | 67.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant data disclosures from the 2025 ADA conference, emphasizing the potential of weight loss and muscle gain drugs, particularly in the Amylin and oral medication segments [10][16] - The report suggests focusing on differentiated drug development in weight loss, particularly the combination of multi-target GLP-1 with Amylin for enhanced efficacy [10][16] Industry Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.6% this week and 6.2% year-to-date, while the H-share biotechnology index has seen a rise of 2.7% this week and 52.7% year-to-date [9] - Notable stock performances include Shenzhou Cell (+30%), Haooubo (+27%), and Huaren Health (+25%) in the A-share market, while JunTai Holdings (+63%) and Jingyou Pharmaceutical (+62%) led in the H-share market [9] Research and Development Progress - Significant advancements in innovative drugs and modified drugs have been reported, with a focus on approvals and clinical submissions [6] - The report details the approval of the GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonist "Masitide" by Innovent Biologics, marking it as the first of its kind globally for obesity management [10][16] Specific Recommendations - The report ranks sub-industries as follows: Innovative drugs > CXO > Traditional Chinese medicine > Medical devices > Pharmacies > Pharmaceutical commerce [11] - Recommended stocks based on growth potential include: BGI, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine, while undervalued stocks in traditional Chinese medicine include: Zhaoli Pharmaceutical and Dong'e Ejiao [11]

Core Insights - iBio, Inc. announced preclinical data showing that an engineered amylin receptor agonist antibody reduced acute food intake in a mouse model of obesity by 60%, comparable to a leading amylin peptide agonist which achieved a 67% reduction [1] - The findings support the potential of antibody-based agonists to meet the increasing demand for safer, longer-acting treatments for obesity and cardiometabolic diseases [1][3] - The collaboration between iBio and AstralBio has resulted in multiple novel engineered antibody agonists targeting the amylin receptor, a promising therapeutic target for obesity [2] Company Developments - The engineered antibody's selective activation of the amylin receptor may match or exceed the efficacy of dual agonism seen with DACRA, while improving tolerability [3] - iBio's proprietary Drug Discovery Platform and advanced AI capabilities enable the discovery of innovative antibodies with exceptional selectivity and potency, targeting specific amylin receptor subtypes [3] - The company aims to develop next-generation therapies to address the limitations of current obesity treatments, leveraging its advanced technology [3] Market Context - Other amylin analogs in clinical development have shown weight loss results of up to 22.7% when combined with semaglutide and 11.8% as monotherapy, indicating a competitive landscape for obesity treatments [4] - iBio's approach may enhance weight-loss efficacy compared to GLP-1 receptor agonists and provide options for patients who are intolerant or unresponsive to existing GLP-1-based therapies [4]

China (PRC) | Healthcare Equity Research China Force in ADA 2025 All eyes on ADA'25 with key presentations during this weekend, e.g.LLY's Orfo and Bima. China biotechs will also have a presence with notable data to watch: 1) Ascletis's ASC30 (orfo-structure oral GLP-1) in Ph1, 2) Laekna's LAE102 (muscle preserving) in Ph1 and 3) Innovent's Mazdutide (GLP-1/ GCG) Ph3 data in T2D. We don't anticipate major surprises from China in ADA'25 though given oral GLP-1 and amylin candidates in early stages and no key ...

Core Insights - Novo Nordisk has announced the advancement of subcutaneous and oral amycretin into phase 3 development for weight management following positive feedback from regulatory authorities [1][2] - The phase 3 development program is set to begin in the first quarter of 2026, targeting adults with overweight or obesity [2] Product Information - Amycretin is a long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist designed for both subcutaneous and oral administration, aimed at treating adults with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes [3] - The oral amycretin phase 1 trial evaluated single and multiple ascending doses, with a maximum dose of 100 mg over a treatment duration of up to 12 weeks [4] - The subcutaneous amycretin phase 1b/2a trial focused on safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics, with a total treatment duration of up to 36 weeks [5] Company Overview - Novo Nordisk is a leading global healthcare company founded in 1923, headquartered in Denmark, and employs approximately 77,400 people across 80 countries [6] - The company markets its products in around 170 countries and is listed on Nasdaq Copenhagen and the New York Stock Exchange [6]

Core Insights - The weight loss drug market has become a highly competitive industry, with significant growth potential and various pharmaceutical companies vying for dominance [2][39] - The global weight loss drug market is projected to reach $130 billion by 2030, with current sales already at $50 billion, surpassing major brands like Coca-Cola [2][24] - The emergence of GLP-1 and GIP mechanisms has led to the development of next-generation weight loss drugs, with companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the charge [3][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The weight loss drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales reaching $50 billion in 2024 and expected to grow 2-3 times in the future [2][24] - Major players in the market include Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, Roche, and Pfizer, each with unique strategies and drug pipelines [2][39] - The competition is not limited to established players; new entrants are also emerging, intensifying the race for market share [39] Group 2: Drug Mechanisms and Innovations - The primary mechanisms for weight loss drugs include GLP-1 and GIP, with GLP-1 being a key player in the development of first-generation drugs like semaglutide [3][10] - Semaglutide has shown significant weight loss results, with patients losing 15-20% of their body weight over a year, marking a breakthrough in obesity treatment [6][11] - Eli Lilly's dual-target drug, tirzepatide, combines GLP-1 and GIP, demonstrating even greater efficacy with weight loss of 20-22% [11][10] Group 3: Emerging Technologies and Future Prospects - Amylin is being explored as a new mechanism that may preserve muscle while promoting fat loss, with early-stage trials showing promise [12][15] - Companies like AbbVie are entering the Amylin space, indicating a growing interest in this mechanism as a potential game-changer in weight loss therapies [16][12] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with various companies exploring combinations of existing mechanisms to enhance efficacy and safety [31][39] Group 4: Clinical Trials and Regulatory Challenges - Novo Nordisk's CagriSema, a combination of semaglutide and Amylin, has faced setbacks in clinical trials, impacting investor confidence [18][19] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown strong market performance, benefiting from its dual mechanism and favorable safety profile [25][24] - The regulatory environment remains complex, with ongoing trials and the need for robust data to support new drug approvals [44][48] Group 5: Investment Considerations - The weight loss drug market is seen as a high-potential investment area, but the increasing competition may pressure profit margins [48][39] - Investors are closely monitoring the performance of key players and their drug pipelines, as well as the impact of new entrants on market dynamics [44][48] - The evolution of drug delivery methods, such as oral formulations, is expected to open new market opportunities and reshape the competitive landscape [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Roche has entered a $5.3 billion deal with Zealand Pharma to develop a new obesity treatment, petrelintide, aiming to compete in the growing obesity drug market dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [1][2]. Company Developments - The Roche-Zealand partnership will involve co-development and co-commercialization of petrelintide, with Zealand receiving $1.65 billion upfront and potential milestone payments up to $5.3 billion based on trial outcomes and sales [6][7]. - Zealand Pharma's stock surged by 38% on the announcement day, while Roche's shares increased by approximately 4% [7]. Product Insights - Petrelintide is an amylin analog, a new class of weight loss treatment that may offer comparable weight reduction to GLP-1 drugs but with better tolerability and preservation of lean muscle [3][4]. - Analysts project that petrelintide could achieve a 15-20% weight loss in phase 3 trials as a monotherapy, with Zealand calling it a potential "future backbone therapy" for weight management [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Roche's deal positioning it against established players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, who are also advancing their own obesity treatments [15][16]. - Zealand's CEO indicated that the partnership with Roche could accelerate the timeline for bringing petrelintide to market, potentially ahead of competitors [14][17]. Strategic Fit - The collaboration was driven by a strong scientific and cultural alignment between Roche and Zealand, with both companies emphasizing the importance of a true partnership in the development process [12][9]. - Roche has been actively expanding its obesity treatment portfolio, including the acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics to enhance its capabilities in this area [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company focuses on the research and development of metabolic drugs, with new pipeline additions including oral BGM0504 and Amylin analog BGM1812 [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.74%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 6.57% [5] - The company expects revenue growth of 12.6%, 13.7%, and 15.1% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 33.7%, 17.6%, and 22.0% during the same period [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.62%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The R&D expenses for 2024 were 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, reflecting the company's commitment to a "R&D-driven" strategy [5] - The company’s total assets were reported at 5.285 billion yuan, with a total market value of approximately 18.576 billion yuan [6] Market Comparison - The company’s stock performance showed an absolute increase of 11.71% over one month, 17.10% over two months, and 48.00% over three months [4] - Compared to the CSI 300 index, the company outperformed with a relative increase of 15.09%, 21.46%, and 49.19% over the same periods [4] Research and Development Focus - The company is developing BGM0504, an oral formulation that aims to overcome the challenges of oral peptide delivery, which has high technical barriers globally [9][10] - BGM1812, an Amylin analog, is positioned to complement GLP-1 drugs in weight management and blood sugar control [17] - The company is advancing its clinical trials for BGM0504, with both Type 2 diabetes and weight loss indications progressing as planned [5]