内外资机构共识：2026年中国股市将延续涨势 2025年末的11连阳为2026年开局积攒了饱满的市场情绪，而过去一年市场出现的诸多积极变化，如AI 的创新突破、"反内卷"政策不断推进，以及企业盈利的改善，都为2026年中国股市的进一步上涨奠定了 坚实基础。展望2026年，看多中国资产，特别是看多中国的科技资产正成为内外资机构的一致共识。站 在开年时点，人心思涨的环境下市场震荡向上的概率更高。亚洲新兴市场板块中，摩根大通、花旗私人 银行维持对中国市场的超配评级。高盛研究团队则预测，中国股票市场到2027年末有望实现38%的涨 幅。这一涨幅的主要驱动力为企业盈利增长，高盛认为中国企业盈利2026年及2027年将分别增长14%和 12%。（上海证券报） 万亿养老金迎来长周期考核 据证券时报消息，万亿年金基金将进入长周期考核阶段，相关指导意见已出台并正在推进。这一举措旨 在促进年金基金的长期投资，改变短期化考核的倾向。年金基金作为养老保障体系的"第二支柱"，其投 资运营规模已超过7.7万亿元。通过延长合同期限和考核周期，优化中长期考核机制，年金基金将更注 重长期风险控制和跨周期资产配置，以提升其稳健性和收益能力。此举 ...

多年来，在CHC（自我诊疗）领域，华润三九（000999.SZ）属于标杆性企业之一，品牌具有极高的辨 识度，公司"999"主品牌家喻户晓；在资本市场，它长期业绩保持稳健，是投资者心目中妥妥的"白马 股"之一。 在医药行业，创新正成为驱动行业增长的核心引擎之一。作为医药行业的龙头企业之一，华润三九已拥 抱行业创新转型浪潮，加大创新布局，在拓宽公司竞争赛道的同时，撬动公司新的增长点。 创新转型力度加大 近日，华润三九的经典名方半夏白术天麻汤颗粒成功获批，这是公司又一款国内首家获批上市的经典名 方。 2024年以来，华润三九屡有经典名方获批上市，其中不乏产品顺利进入医保目录。 近日，2025年国家基本医保目录在广州公布。在医保谈判成功的名单中，华润三九的呼吸系统疾病药 物"999益气清肺颗粒"赫然在列。 今年1月，益气清肺颗粒作为3.2类中药获批上市，用于呼吸道感染康复期综合症状治疗，该药填补了呼 吸道感染康复用药空白。 益气清肺颗粒是基于生脉散（《医学启源》金·张元素）、平胃散（《简要济众方》宋·周应）两大经典 名方，结合现代康复期诊疗需求化裁而来。在呼吸道感染性疾病的诊疗上，相对于预防和治疗环节，康 复期没有受 ...

格隆汇12月2日丨博瑞医药(688166.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，截至2025年第三季度报告披露日， BGM0504注射液2型糖尿病和减重两项适应症国内III期临床试验已完成全部入组，处于给药和随访阶 段，均正在按计划顺利推进中。待完成国内III期临床研究，并经国家药监局审评、审批通过后方可在国 内生产上市。 ...

格隆汇12月2日丨博瑞医药(688166.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，截至2025年第三季度报告披露日， BGM0504注射液2型糖尿病和减重两项适应症国内III期临床试验已完成全部入组，处于给药和随访阶 段，均正在按计划顺利推进中。待完成国内III期临床研究，并经国家药监局审评、审批通过后方可在国 内生产上市。 ...

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞生物医药 is attempting a second IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a failed attempt in April, driven by a need for international expansion and funding amidst declining performance and cash flow issues [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 博瑞生物医药 from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 10.17 billion, 11.8 billion, and 12.83 billion respectively, indicating low growth, while net profit has decreased from 2.4 billion to 1.89 billion, showing a situation of increasing revenue but declining profit [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue dropped by 10.5% year-on-year to 8.74 billion, with net profit plummeting 71.63% to 503.2 million [2] - The gross margin has fallen from 63.01% in 2022 to 51.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of over 11 percentage points [2] Debt and Cash Flow - The company's debt ratio has risen from 7.6% at the end of 2019 to 52.77% by September 2025, with total liabilities reaching 28.28 billion, including short-term loans of 1.49 billion and non-current liabilities due within a year of 7.25 billion, while cash reserves stand at only 6.06 billion, indicating a significant repayment gap [2] - In response to cash flow issues, the company initiated a medium-term note issuance plan for 3 billion in 2025, primarily for debt repayment and liquidity support, which increases financial costs [2] Interest Burden and Revenue Composition - Interest expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 48 million, a 22.2% increase year-on-year, nearly matching the net profit for the same period [3] - The raw material drug revenue accounted for 84.23% of total product sales, with antiviral product revenue down 67.06% due to centralized procurement policies, and antifungal product revenue also declining [3] R&D Pipeline and Product Development - Most of 博瑞生物医药's pipeline is in early stages, with the BGM1812 injection for weight loss just having submitted an IND application, and the oral version still in preclinical research [3] - The core product BGM0504 injection is in phase III clinical trials, with a market entry application not expected until 2026, while competitors have already launched similar products, narrowing the market window [4] Historical Financing and Governance Issues - Since its IPO in 2019, 博瑞生物医药 has raised over 12 billion through multiple financing rounds, yet continues to face financial pressure, leading to a new 5 billion fundraising plan in 2024 [5] - The company has faced multiple regulatory warnings over the past five years, including issues with the use of raised funds and misleading statements by management [6] Valuation Concerns - As of November 14, 2025, the company's rolling P/E ratio stands at 377, significantly higher than the industry average of about 30, raising questions about market acceptance of the upcoming IPO amidst declining performance and governance issues [7]

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞医药 has submitted an application for a dual listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its global strategy and capital market internationalization [2][3] Group 1: Listing and Financial Strategy - The company aims to use the funds raised from the H-share issuance for three main purposes: supporting research and development of existing and future innovative drug candidates, building new production and R&D facilities, and supplementing operational funds [2] - The IPO is expected to enhance 博瑞医药's brand influence in the global pharmaceutical industry and provide new financing channels, optimizing its capital structure [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - 博瑞医药's revenue has shown consistent growth over the past three years, with revenues of RMB 1.017 billion, RMB 1.164 billion, and RMB 1.254 billion for the years ending December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [4] - The company's R&D expenditure for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 138 million, with a year-on-year increase of 144.07%, accounting for 64.83% of its operating revenue [4] Group 3: Innovation Pipeline - 博瑞医药 is advancing multiple innovative drug candidates, including BGM0504, which is a leading candidate in the global clinical stage for treating metabolic diseases [5][10] - The company is also developing BGM2102 and BGM1812, targeting comprehensive blood sugar control and weight management for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients [6][8] Group 4: Market Potential - The global market for T2DM and obesity is substantial, with an estimated 542.9 million T2DM patients and 2.6387 billion obesity patients worldwide by 2024 [9] - The global sales of GLP-1 receptor agonists are projected to reach USD 154.2 billion by the end of 2035, indicating a lucrative market for 博瑞医药's innovative therapies [9] Group 5: Strategic Collaborations and Future Outlook - 博瑞医药's success in innovation is supported by strong technical platforms and strategic partnerships, enhancing its competitive edge in both domestic and global markets [11] - The company's ongoing development in respiratory diseases, with seven drugs in the pipeline, further diversifies its growth potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞医药 is a leading high-end generic and innovative drug developer in China, with a strong industry position and full supply chain advantages [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 博瑞医药 achieved revenue of 874 million yuan, ranking 20th among 47 companies in the industry, while the industry leader, 普洛药业, reported revenue of 7.764 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 31.39 million yuan, placing it 29th in the industry, with the top performer, 浙江医药, reporting a net profit of 867 million yuan [2] Profitability and Debt - As of Q3 2025, 博瑞医药's debt-to-asset ratio was 52.77%, higher than the industry average of 27.75%, indicating significant debt pressure [3] - The gross profit margin was 51.40%, which, despite a decrease from 58.00% year-on-year, remains above the industry average of 35.38% [3] Management and Shareholder Structure - The chairman, 袁建栋, received a salary of 1.9114 million yuan in 2024, a slight decrease from the previous year [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 10.11%, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 11.32% [5] Innovation Pipeline - 博瑞医药's BGM0504 oral tablet has received Phase I clinical trial approval in the U.S., showcasing significant advantages in bioavailability and safety [5] - The company has a rich pipeline with multiple products progressing towards clinical stages, enhancing its competitiveness in international markets [5][6] Market Outlook - Despite a temporary decline in revenue and net profit due to reduced demand for antiviral products, the company is expected to improve its performance with ongoing innovation and clinical advancements [6]

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞医药 has decided to terminate its plan for a private placement of A-shares, citing challenges such as declining performance, increased R&D investment, and financial pressure [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced a continuous decline in net profit for three and a half years, with net profits of 240 million, 203 million, and 189 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing year-on-year declines of 1.77%, 15.51%, and 6.57% respectively [2]. - In the first half of 2025, 博瑞医药 reported a revenue of 537 million yuan, a decrease of 18.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.17 million yuan, down 83.85% year-on-year [2]. Financial Pressure - The company's cash reserves have been declining, with cash balances of 1.18 billion, 969 million, and 765 million yuan at the end of 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. As of June 30, 2025, cash reserves were 740 million yuan, with total liabilities of 2.798 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 52% [3]. - Interest expenses have been increasing, with amounts of 23.71 million, 44.42 million, 52.43 million, and 29.03 million yuan recorded from 2022 to the first half of 2025, impacting profitability [3]. R&D Investment - 博瑞医药's R&D expenses have surged, with amounts of 207 million, 249 million, and 297 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 20.35%, 21.08%, and 23.19% of revenue respectively. In the first half of 2025, R&D expenses reached 344 million yuan, a 144.07% increase year-on-year, representing 64.83% of revenue [4]. - The company is focusing on the development of innovative drugs, with 91.22% of R&D investment directed towards new drugs and inhalation formulations, showing a significant increase in investment for core product BGM0504 [4]. Financing and Future Plans - 博瑞医药 has completed three rounds of financing since its listing, raising 521 million, 465 million, and 227 million yuan in 2019, 2021, and 2022 respectively. The company also plans to list in Hong Kong to enhance its international strategy and financing capabilities [5].

Core Viewpoint - 博瑞医药 plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international strategy and overseas business layout, aiming to improve its capital strength and competitiveness [1] Group 1: H-share Issuance and Listing - 博瑞医药 has announced its intention to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the board approving relevant proposals [1] - The company is currently discussing the issuance with relevant intermediaries, but specific details are yet to be finalized [1] - The timing and window for the issuance will be chosen based on market conditions and shareholder interests within a 24-month period after shareholder approval [1] Group 2: Stock Price Volatility - 博瑞医药's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a cumulative drop of 50% over 10 consecutive trading days, qualifying as severe abnormal trading [2] - As of October 9, 2025, the closing price was 57.57 yuan per share, down 53.04% from its peak of 122.59 yuan on August 6, 2025 [2] - The company's rolling P/E ratio is 243.45, significantly higher than the industry average of 30.82 [2] Group 3: Fundraising Activities - 博瑞医药 has raised a total of 1.213 billion yuan through three fundraising activities since its listing [5] - The latest fundraising involves issuing shares to specific investors, with a total amount not exceeding 50 million yuan, aimed at replenishing working capital and repaying bank loans [2][3] - The issuance price for the new shares is set at 22.36 yuan per share, with the controlling shareholder participating in the cash subscription [3] Group 4: Product Development and Market Competition - 博瑞医药 is focusing on the development of its core product BGM0504 for type 2 diabetes and obesity, which is currently in phase III clinical trials [7] - The competitive landscape for GLP-1 receptor agonists in China is intensifying, with several companies developing similar products, leading to concerns about product differentiation [8] - Currently, there are 11 GLP-1 drugs approved globally for type 2 diabetes, with five available in China, indicating a crowded market [8]

Group 1 - 2025 marks a significant year for the development of innovative drugs in China, with 43 innovative drugs approved in the first half, 40 of which are developed by domestic companies [1] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has approved a total of 210 innovative drugs and 269 innovative medical devices during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, indicating a trend of accelerated growth [1] - Continuous policy support from the government has provided a strong impetus for the development of innovative drugs, creating a transparent and stable policy environment [2][3] Group 2 - Companies like China Resources Sanjiu have adopted a "brand + innovation" dual-drive strategy, significantly increasing their focus on innovation in response to national policies and market demands [3] - China Resources Sanjiu reported obtaining 8 drug registration certificates and has 205 ongoing research projects, covering various fields including cardiovascular and oncology [3] - Other notable companies in the innovative drug sector include Teva Pharmaceutical, Tai Chi Group, and Yiling Pharmaceutical, all of which are enhancing their competitiveness through increased R&D investment and talent acquisition [4][5] Group 3 - The number of innovative traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) drugs is on the rise, with 5 TCM innovative drugs approved in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growing trend in this sector [5] - As of July 31, 2025, there are 147 TCM innovative drugs in clinical stages or above, a threefold increase compared to 2020, indicating a significant expansion in TCM innovation [5] - The Chinese innovative drug industry has made remarkable breakthroughs in quantity, quality, and technology over the past decade, entering a new development phase with promising future prospects [5]