Housing Market Sentiment and Affordability - Homebuilder sentiment remains negative despite a slight increase this month [1] - The Trump administration plans to release affordable housing plans in the new year [1] - Zelman highlights the complexity of housing affordability, emphasizing collaborative discussions between the administration and the industry [3] - Bottlenecks and inflation at the local municipality level (impact fees, approval delays) pose a significant challenge to improving housing affordability [4] - Federal government intervention in local politics is needed to make a substantial impact on housing affordability [4] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, while 30-year mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield [5] - Several Fed rate cuts have not resulted in a corresponding decrease in 30-year mortgage rates [5] - Potential measures to improve rates include adjusting loan level pricing adjustments (LLPAs) and the Fed buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [6] - A significant reduction in mortgage rates in 2026 is unlikely [6] Tariffs and Construction Costs - Initial concerns that tariffs would increase home production costs by $5,000 to $10,000 per door have not materialized for large public builders [8] - Large public builders have used their size and scale to push back on trades, manufacturers, and suppliers, absorbing tariff costs [9] - New home prices have declined this year due to incentives like mortgage rate buydowns [10] - Reversing tariffs may benefit suppliers and manufacturers more than consumers [10]

Market Dynamics & Macroeconomic Factors - Surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to both fundamental economic issues and speculative human behavior [1][4] - Global trade impediments disrupt currency flows, discouraging foreign investment in US Treasuries and potentially increasing borrowing costs [2] - Trade disruptions may pressure the Federal Reserve, impacting the US's ability to borrow cheaply for overseas investment [2][3] - Weaponization of the dollar also impacts precious metal space [3] Speculative Investment - Speculators, previously focused on meme coins and SPACs, have returned to the precious metals space, increasing volatility [4] - Technical factors and speculative activity contribute to market movements in precious metals [5] Risk Management & Investment Strategy - Mining companies prioritize management teams and resource allocation as key factors for risk management [6][7] - Buying protection can mitigate downside risk but may lead to underperformance in a bull market [8] - Investment decisions should align with individual risk tolerance [8] - The industry aims to communicate effectively so investors can make informed choices [8]

Economic Policy - The President believes inflation will resolve on its own [1] - If inflation persists, the option to increase interest rates is available [1]

AI Trade & Market Dynamics - The AI trade is making a comeback, with Nvidia and Oracle boosting the NASDAQ [1] - Decoupling within the MAG 7 was observed in late Q3, with profit-taking in Nvidia and Meta, and buying of laggards like Google and Apple after trade tariffs [2] - The market anticipates broadening the AI trade into 2026, with the VIX potentially offering buying opportunities [3] - Opportunities exist outside the MAG 7 in second or third derivatives of AI, such as Appella Alto Network [5] Investment Opportunities - Oracle and Intel are identified as potential investment opportunities, despite Oracle's recent performance [4] - Intel experienced a significant increase of over 100% earlier in the year, presenting a possible entry point after profit-taking [5] Market Outlook - The analyst maintains a bullish outlook, targeting 7100, driven by expectations of lower interest rates [6] - Lower interest rates are expected to propel growth and benefit the economy, supported by strong earnings and profit expectations [7] - The market is expected to experience volatility, with the VIX unlikely to remain at 14 in January [8] Bitcoin Analysis - Bitcoin's correlation with the NASDAQ 100 decoupled in April due to trade tariffs [9] - A pullback to $76,000 in Bitcoin futures is desired before a potential resumption of its upward trend [9] - Bitcoin is expected to surpass $100,000 due to new organic buyers and platform accessibility [10] - A 30% drop in Bitcoin is common, requiring investors to have a strong risk tolerance [11]

The U.S. dollar might be in for a bit of a reprieve in early 2026. - Getty Images The U.S. dollar has had a rough go of it in 2025 — but one recent development indicates that the beaten-down buck could be due for a bit of a reprieve in early 2026. Late last week, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the greenback’s value against a basket of six rival currencies, saw its 50-day simple moving average cross above its 200-day moving average, according to Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at BofA Glob ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - European Central Bank does not anticipate raising interest rates in the near future [1] Executive Commentary - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank Executive Board, shared her expectations regarding interest rates [1]

Monetary Policy - US Federal Reserve risks triggering a recession if it doesn't continue lowering interest rates next year [1]

Market Trends - Metal traders are observing all-time highs in gold, silver, and copper due to positive momentum [1] - The metal market has experienced an amazing year overall [2] - Geopolitical tensions are continuously stirring, impacting the gold market into the next year [2] Precious Metals Analysis - Gold has increased by more than 66.67% this year, benefiting from the prospect of lower US interest rates next year, debasement trade, weaker US dollar [2] - Many analysts have selected gold as their favorite metal and commodity for the upcoming year [3] - Goldman Sachs projects gold could reach $4900 next year, potentially even higher with increased private investor involvement [3] - Other precious metals are also experiencing significant gains [3] - It's difficult to find bearish sentiment in the precious metals space for the coming year [5] - Uncertain geopolitical times tend to favor gold's performance [6] Market Dynamics and Risks - Relatively small markets and illiquid times of year can lead to sharp moves in benchmarks between silver, platinum, and palladium [4] - There isn't a significant amount of private investor money currently in gold, suggesting potential for further price increases if more capital enters the market [6]

Interest Rate Policy - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack 表示在央行最近三次会议降息后，未来几个月没有必要改变利率 [1]

Interest Rate Policy - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicates no need to adjust interest rates for several months [1]