Let's bring in the top ranked retail analyst on Wall Street, Matthew Boss of JP Morgan. He just raised his price target in fact on that name. It's good to see you. >> Good to see you, too.>> You were a believer before many, right. Cuz the last time you were here, you had just upgraded the stock to a buy. >> That's right.>> Maybe 10% lower than where the stock is now. What gave you the conviction to do it then. And do you feel like you're getting the payoff now.>> Yeah. So look the the conviction in the call ...

Inventory & Tariffs - Many shippers front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, leading to unusual inventory levels for this time of year, with 77% of Flexport's customers reporting sufficient stock [2][3] - A temporary surge in airfreight demand is observed from Southeast Asian countries to beat the August 1st deadline for higher tariffs [4] - The industry anticipates potential shortages if tariff rates significantly increase, impacting businesses [6] Trade Lane Dynamics - China to US trade lane is down approximately 16% year-over-year, an improvement from a 60% drop following the April 2nd tariff announcement [7] - China's overall exports are up 5%, but exports to the US are down 16%, indicating a significant shift [8] - Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand and Vietnam, experienced a surge in exports, but face higher duty rates announced for August 1st [8] Red Sea & Suez Canal Disruption - Container ships have not been transiting the Suez Canal since December 2023 due to Houthi activity, impacting approximately 30% of global container traffic [12][13] - The disruption in the Red Sea is keeping ocean freight rates artificially high, with no foreseeable return to normal [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 4% to 6% growth guidance for the full year, despite a slow start in Q1 due to a low cold and flu season, which saw a 15% decline in the market in both the US and globally [18][19][21] - 71% of the business gained and maintained market share for the full year, indicating strong underlying performance [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Oral Health division is performing well, with strong growth in brands like Sensodyne and paradontax, and the Clinical White platform is set to expand into 12 more markets this year [22][23] - The VMS category is back to expected levels, with Centrum being a unique global brand in over 68 countries [52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the US retail environment is experiencing pressure, particularly among certain drug retailers managing their cash and inventory levels [62] - The company is facing currency headwinds, with a forecasted negative impact of 1% to 2.5% on top and bottom lines due to geographical diversification and inflation in emerging markets [39][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on innovation across all categories, with a 10.2% increase in A&P investment in 2024 to drive growth [27] - The company is actively investing in its sales force in India and has formed a joint venture in China to enhance market access [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving full-year guidance despite a slow start, attributing it to seasonal dynamics and inventory levels [21][36] - The company is optimistic about the opportunities in China and the efficiencies gained from increased ownership of the China JV [74][80] Other Important Information - The company announced a £500 million share buyback program, indicating strong cash flow and confidence in its financial outlook [32][37] - The company is exploring options to mitigate currency impacts through strategic choices in supply chain and pricing strategies [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Performance skewed towards the second half of the year - Management acknowledged a slow start due to a low cold and flu season, with confidence in reacceleration based on underlying business performance and innovation [18][21] Question: Sustainability of Oral Health performance - Management confirmed strong growth in Oral Health, with ongoing innovation and expansion plans for Clinical White [22][23] Question: FX headwinds and balance sheet - Management noted ongoing FX headwinds and clarified that the £500 million share buyback does not preclude M&A opportunities [32][39] Question: VMS category outlook - Management indicated that the VMS category is stabilizing and performing as expected, with a strong innovation pipeline [50][52] Question: Retail landscape in the U.S. - Management highlighted pressures in the U.S. retail environment but attributed it mainly to seasonality rather than deeper issues [62] Question: Working capital efficiencies - Management identified ongoing opportunities in working capital, particularly in inventory optimization and payment terms [66] Question: China JV and inventory revaluation - Management discussed the benefits of increased ownership in the China JV and clarified that inventory revaluation impacts were more significant in Europe [76][78] Question: M&A focus - Management stated that M&A would focus on opportunities that strategically strengthen the business, particularly in innovation [80]