FX

Search documents
X @Wendy O
Wendy O· 2025-08-13 22:00
LINK Hits 7-Month High (Here's Why)LINK recently hit a seven-month high, capping a ~42% weekly surge.The rally was fueled by two major catalysts...1. A partnership with Intercontinental Exchange, parent of the NYSE, to bring FX and precious metals pricing on-chain.2. The launch of the Chainlink Reserve, a token buyback program converting service revenues into LINK.Source: Coindesk ...
全球宏观展望与策略_全球利率、大宗商品、货币与新兴市场-Global Macro Outlook and Strategy_ Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets
2025-08-08 05:01
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6][7]. Key Insights US Rates - **Positioning Strategy**: The recommendation is to hold 5s20s steepeners as a low-beta strategy to benefit from lower front-end yields. Anticipation of a multi-quarter series of coupon auction size increases starting in May 2026 is noted [3][14]. - **Net T-Bill Issuance**: A projection of $587 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the Treasury General Account (TGA) following the passage of the OBBBA [3][23]. International Rates - **Market Volatility**: Developed market (DM) rates have experienced choppy trading, with a bearish repricing following the July ECB meeting and a rally after the latest US payrolls [4]. Commodities - **Russian Oil Exports**: The Trump Administration has warned that India and China may face penalties for purchasing Russian oil, potentially affecting 2.75 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian seaborne oil exports. Russia may redirect 0.8 mbd to countries like Egypt and Malaysia [8][89]. - **Natural Gas Market**: US natural gas production is impacting market sentiment, with skepticism about the $750 billion energy purchases in the EU-US deal being deemed overly optimistic [90]. Currencies - **Dollar Positioning**: Pre-payroll price actions indicate a significant unwinding of dollar shorts. The bearish view on the dollar remains intact, with US data moderation being a key factor [6][56][57]. - **EUR/USD Outlook**: The bullish view on EUR/USD is supported by US economic moderation and currency hedge rebalancing. The fair value of EUR/USD has increased as US real yields have declined [59][76]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: A cautious approach is recommended for emerging markets (EM), with a light set of recommendations favoring holding market weight (MW) in EM FX, EM rates, and EM corporate credit, while staying underweight (UW) in EM sovereign credit [9][110]. - **Market Conditions**: The EM FX risk appetite signals that the market is overbought, suggesting a potential correction [111]. Additional Important Points - **Treasury Funding**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in May 2026 [20][21]. - **Trade Uncertainty in Agriculture**: Trade uncertainty is reaching a tipping point in agricultural markets, with volatility across ags markets at multi-year lows [103][105]. - **Gold Market**: Gold prices are awaiting a demand catalyst, with ETF inflows being crucial for a breakout, particularly in light of anticipated Fed cuts [98][102]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and investment strategies.
Kimberly-Clark de México, S. A. B. de C.
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-18 18:13
Core Insights - Kimberly-Clark de México reported Q2 2025 sales of MXN 14.1 billion, which is flat compared to the previous year but represents a 1.7% increase from Q1 2025, marking an all-time quarterly record [3][4] - Total volume decreased by 3.3%, while price/mix increased by 3.3%. Consumer Products and Away from Home segments saw declines of 2.2% and 7.8%, respectively [4] - Exports increased significantly by 24.5%, with double-digit growth in both converted products and hard roll sales [4] - The cost of goods sold rose by 7.2%, influenced by mixed results in raw materials, with favorable conditions for SAM and resins, but negative impacts from recycled fibers and fluff [4] - Foreign exchange rates were notably higher, averaging 17.3% increase [4]
摩根士丹利:软件、云服务及超大规模云服务提供商在不同地区的风险暴露程度如何
摩根· 2025-05-12 01:48
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The report highlights the global distribution of enterprise software spending, indicating that the US accounts for approximately 56% of sales, with Western Europe at 23% in CY24, showing minimal change from CY20 [15] - The exposure of software and cloud companies to China is relatively low, with the report suggesting that tariffs or actions on software will not have a significant impact [14][12] - The report expresses concerns about deglobalization, noting that regions like the EU may attempt to promote local software industries through regulations and tariffs [14][12] Summary by Sections Global Exposure of Enterprise Software - Enterprise software spending has remained stable globally from CY20 to CY24, with most companies generating more revenue outside North America [2] - The US market is the largest revenue driver for most companies, except for SAP, which has similar revenue exposure in Western Europe and North America [14][12] Microsoft and Oracle Exposure - Microsoft has a 22% exposure to Western Europe and 11% to Asia/Pacific, with China accounting for only 1.8% of Azure revenue [22][28] - Oracle's global exposure mirrors that of enterprise software, with 21% in Western Europe and 10% in Asia/Pacific [33][35] SAP and Adobe Global Presence - SAP has equal revenue exposure to the US and Western Europe, with 37% in North America and 37% in Western Europe [40][41] - Adobe has become more global over the past four years, with a revenue mix of 56% in North America and 23% in Western Europe by CY24 [42][45] Salesforce and Workday International Growth - Salesforce has increased its international revenue percentage from CY20 to CY24, now at 64% in North America and 20% in Western Europe [46][48] - Workday remains predominantly North American, generating 77% of its revenue in North America in CY24, although it is working to expand its international presence [51][54]