Governor Myron, thank you so much for sitting down with me. It is great to have you on the program. >> Thanks for having me.>> We've gotten a new reading this morning on private sector job growth and uh we're seeing that job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000. A lot of that job growth coming from larger companies as opposed to midsize and smaller companies. How are you looking at this report.Given that we don't have official government data, how is it informing your outlook for ...

Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts significant increases in investment, productivity, and job growth across America [1]

Labor Market Concerns - The industry is monitoring the potential impact of white-collar and new graduate job seekers facing difficulties in finding employment [1] - Immigration policy changes, such as border closures, have significantly altered the job growth break-even rate [2] AI Impact Assessment - The industry views AI with optimism but acknowledges that its labor market effects may be slower than initially anticipated [3] - The industry notes that predictions of widespread displacement of long-haul truck drivers by self-driving technology have not materialized in the short term [3] - The industry is carefully observing AI's influence but has not yet seen substantial effects on the labor market compared to other policy developments [4]

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - Market anticipates a Fed rate cut next week, followed by two more cuts by year-end [2] - Next week's rate cut is highly likely, but further cuts depend on inflation outlook and economic strength [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the pass-through of tariff costs into inflation [4] - Concerns exist about slowing disposable income growth potentially moderating consumption growth [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target could be questioned if inflation rises [12] Employment & Economic Indicators - Job growth has moderated, but it may reflect labor supply weakness due to limited immigration and deportations [9] - No signs of an imminent recession involving rapid job losses are apparent [7] - Downward revision of job growth by over 900,000 jobs in the past year raises concerns about maximum employment [8] - Consumer concerns about inflation-adjusted income not keeping pace with prices could impact consumption [10] Personnel - The Senate may confirm Steven Myin as Fed Governor, replacing Adriana Cougler [1]

Labor Market Overview - Recent job growth figures have been revised downwards, indicating a weaker labor market than initially reported [1] Economic Analysis - Economists are proposing methods to enhance the accuracy and reliability of US labor data [1]

Economic Data & Political Influence - Concerns arise over potential political manipulation of economic data, specifically at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - The integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is emphasized, highlighting the credibility and experience needed for the role [3] - The possibility of rigging data is dismissed, emphasizing the established processes and controls in place [5] - The administration's credibility is at risk if it attempts to discredit independent data, as people are aware of ongoing economic challenges [4] - The president's claims of political manipulation send a negative signal, potentially discouraging the release of credible data [7] - Cooking economic statistics is likely to be exposed quickly, triggering market reactions and internal dissent [8] - The administration is accused of trying to enforce a false version of reality by pressuring government agencies to align with its views [11][12][13] - There are concerns about scrubbing data related to vaccines and climate change, undermining independent data relied upon for policy decisions [15] Trade & Tariffs - The president's strategy involves leveraging tariffs to push forward a geopolitical agenda [19] - The EU may not be able to fulfill its promise of $600 billion in exchange for lower tariffs [16] - A 15% tariff rate is considered a potential floor, marking a significant change in the world economy [17][18] - The president's tactics involve extreme escalation to pressure countries into submission [22]

Labor Market Trends - US job growth cooled sharply over the past three months [1] - The labor market is shifting into a lower gear [1] Economic Outlook - Widespread economic uncertainty exists [1]

Labor Market Trends - US job growth cooled more than forecast [1] - Labor market is shifting into a lower gear amid widespread economic uncertainty [1]

Macroeconomic Outlook - A weaker dollar is generally beneficial for manufacturing and S&P 500 revenues, with approximately 30% of S&P 500 revenues originating from abroad [2] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase inflation by roughly 05 percentage points over the next 9 months, posing a challenge given existing inflation levels [3] - The M2 money supply is growing at its fastest rate since 2022, indicating substantial liquidity seeking assets and yield [4] - The debate centers on whether recent sentiment improvements are sufficient for continued S&P 500 growth, considering headwinds from tariffs and student loan payments restarting [5] Labor Market Dynamics - The consensus expects 100,000 new jobs next Friday, which is still steady job growth [7] - Private sector job growth has slowed down in recent months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7] - Deportations running at an annualized rate of approximately 1 million people could reduce job growth [7] - The break-even level for long-run non-farm payrolls is estimated to be around 70,000, lower than the 200,000 in 2023 and 2024 [9] Inflation and Pricing Pressures - The market is actively debating inflation, with the expectation of a 27% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading next week [10] - There is an expectation of a meaningful increase in inflation over the next several months, particularly in imported goods like footwear, apparel, toys, and tools [11] - Companies are currently paying approximately $400 billion annually in tariffs, impacting either consumers through higher prices or companies through lower earnings [14] - Retailers, particularly those affected by tariffs, are expected to experience margin pressure and potentially lower sales [16]

Labor Market Overview - US job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month [1] - The unemployment rate fell [1]