US job growth remained sluggish in November and the unemployment rate rose, pointing to a continued cooling in the labor market after a particularly weak October. https://t.co/UQNjcRZhCc ...

RT plur daddy (@plur_daddy)It was very dovish relative to expectations. Have to view the PA for what it is. Weak in the face of good news. Not sure why. Balance sheet expansion should have been bullish for crypto. Silver/gold responding the best, then equities (with IWM leading). Equities being weaker than silver/gold is logical, since part of the dovishness was Powell saying that true job growth might be -20k/mo. ...

to follow up on your comments about job growth. Why is it so much worse than the official data is suggesting. >> Oh, well, we just we know I think it's it's um this is I don't think this is particularly controversial.There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount.And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would b ...

Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000, with larger companies contributing more than midsize and smaller companies [1] - Alternative data, like that from ADP, suggests pre-existing trends in the labor market are continuing at a similar rate, with modest job creation and moderating wages [3] - Labor demand may not be as strong as desired from a cyclical perspective, indicating rates could be lower [4] - Changes to job creation levels due to policy changes like immigration are considered output gap neutral, as additional people both work and consume [6][7][8] - Low levels of growth may result from changing border policy, but monetary policy doesn't automatically respond to this [9][10] Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy aims to balance supply and demand, avoiding both inflation and deflation [7] - Expansionary supply-side policies, like full expensing provisions from the tax bill, incentivize investment in new factory equipment and structures, pushing demand higher in the short run and expanding the supply side in the longer run [12][13][14] - Regulations shape the structure of the economy by influencing production possibilities and industry composition [15] - Monetary policy responds to the output gap, the outlook for inflation, and changes in the neutral rate [18] - An increase in national savings typically leads to lower interest rates [23] Inflation and Interest Rates - One perspective is that current policy is too restrictive, and a faster move to a neutral rate is preferred to avoid undue harm to the job market [25][26][28] - Tariffs are not viewed as a significant driver of inflation, and shelter/housing market inflation is expected to decrease more quickly than some colleagues anticipate [27][28] - High interest rates may already be causing a recession in parts of the economy, particularly housing [30] - The median projection from the September meeting suggested a third rate cut this year, implying a cut in December [35] - Core services inflation, when adjusted for imputed services like portfolio management fees, is closer to 2%, specifically 23%-24% [39][46] - Shelter disinflation is a critical factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations of benign shelter inflation due to market rents running at approximately 1% [47][49] Trade and Economic Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty over the tariff and trade environment could negatively impact the economy [21] - A ruling against the president's authority to issue tariffs could increase uncertainty, potentially pressuring growth and hiring [20][21]

Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts significant increases in investment, productivity, and job growth across America [1]

Labor Market Concerns - The industry is monitoring the potential impact of white-collar and new graduate job seekers facing difficulties in finding employment [1] - Immigration policy changes, such as border closures, have significantly altered the job growth break-even rate [2] AI Impact Assessment - The industry views AI with optimism but acknowledges that its labor market effects may be slower than initially anticipated [3] - The industry notes that predictions of widespread displacement of long-haul truck drivers by self-driving technology have not materialized in the short term [3] - The industry is carefully observing AI's influence but has not yet seen substantial effects on the labor market compared to other policy developments [4]

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - Market anticipates a Fed rate cut next week, followed by two more cuts by year-end [2] - Next week's rate cut is highly likely, but further cuts depend on inflation outlook and economic strength [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the pass-through of tariff costs into inflation [4] - Concerns exist about slowing disposable income growth potentially moderating consumption growth [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target could be questioned if inflation rises [12] Employment & Economic Indicators - Job growth has moderated, but it may reflect labor supply weakness due to limited immigration and deportations [9] - No signs of an imminent recession involving rapid job losses are apparent [7] - Downward revision of job growth by over 900,000 jobs in the past year raises concerns about maximum employment [8] - Consumer concerns about inflation-adjusted income not keeping pace with prices could impact consumption [10] Personnel - The Senate may confirm Steven Myin as Fed Governor, replacing Adriana Cougler [1]

Labor Market Overview - Recent job growth figures have been revised downwards, indicating a weaker labor market than initially reported [1] Economic Analysis - Economists are proposing methods to enhance the accuracy and reliability of US labor data [1]

Economic Data & Political Influence - Concerns arise over potential political manipulation of economic data, specifically at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - The integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is emphasized, highlighting the credibility and experience needed for the role [3] - The possibility of rigging data is dismissed, emphasizing the established processes and controls in place [5] - The administration's credibility is at risk if it attempts to discredit independent data, as people are aware of ongoing economic challenges [4] - The president's claims of political manipulation send a negative signal, potentially discouraging the release of credible data [7] - Cooking economic statistics is likely to be exposed quickly, triggering market reactions and internal dissent [8] - The administration is accused of trying to enforce a false version of reality by pressuring government agencies to align with its views [11][12][13] - There are concerns about scrubbing data related to vaccines and climate change, undermining independent data relied upon for policy decisions [15] Trade & Tariffs - The president's strategy involves leveraging tariffs to push forward a geopolitical agenda [19] - The EU may not be able to fulfill its promise of $600 billion in exchange for lower tariffs [16] - A 15% tariff rate is considered a potential floor, marking a significant change in the world economy [17][18] - The president's tactics involve extreme escalation to pressure countries into submission [22]

Labor Market Trends - US job growth cooled sharply over the past three months [1] - The labor market is shifting into a lower gear [1] Economic Outlook - Widespread economic uncertainty exists [1]