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X @Michaël van de Poppe
Michaël van de Poppe· 2025-08-16 16:38
Market Trends - The gold market's upcoming decision point will influence risk-on vs risk-off sentiment in the broader market [1] - A breakdown in gold prices could signal a significant upward movement for altcoins [1]
宏观点评:美国非农就业大幅下修的背后-20250802
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-02 11:11
Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]
X @Michaël van de Poppe
Michaël van de Poppe· 2025-07-18 18:35
One of the best correlations in the markets.- CNH/USD bottomed in April.- $ETH / $BTC bottomed in April.- Gold peaked in April.The risk-on vs. risk-off change already happened three months ago and since then $ETH has outperformed Bitcoin by 70%.This means that there's more upside to come in the next 12-24 months as the confidence is slowly getting build up. ...
X @Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒
Market Dynamics - USELESS coin has experienced significant holder growth, with an additional 1,600 holders in 3 days, indicating strong market interest [1] - Smaller wallets are actively accumulating USELESS coin during dips, leading to better distribution, a positive sign for long-term success [1] - BonkFun eco is gaining traction as a Pumpfun contender, with USELESS coin having room for growth compared to top Pumpfun runners with market caps exceeding $1 billion [1] - USELESS is reportedly gaining popularity in China, suggesting it's becoming a global movement with the potential to be a multi-billion dollar memecoin [1] - Traditional finance (TradFi) players are starting to view USELESS as a Solana beta and a risk-on crypto bet [1] - Most of Crypto Twitter (CT) is sidelined on USELESS, despite its 5,800% rally in 3 weeks, indicating potential for further growth as more join [1] - USELESS continues to rank among the top 10 most traded assets on Solana [3] Holder Behavior - Core holders maintain their positions, demonstrating conviction despite market volatility [1] - Whales, smart money, and Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) are gradually accumulating USELESS coin [2] Market Sentiment - The narrative surrounding USELESS coin is strong, with the coin being considered undervalued relative to other memecoins [3] - Impatient holders and panic sellers are being punished, as dips are becoming shallower due to increased demand [3]