Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said gold’s explosive 2025 rally is pulling investor attention away from Bitcoin and Ethereum. The comment landed as gold pushed above $2,800 per ounce while Bitcoin and Ethereum chopped sideways after months of ETF hype. Zoom out, and this fits a familiar pattern: when fear rises, money parks in assets that feel boring but safe. For everyday investors, this explains why crypto prices feel stuck even with big-name firms offering ETFs. Capital has not vanished. It has moved. D ...

Market Sentiment - The stock market is currently experiencing a "risk-off" sentiment, with investors hesitant to invest in speculative small-cap stocks that have already peaked [1] Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and has been an adviser to several seed-round startups [2]

Domestic Economic Indicators - High-frequency data indicates a significant rebound in November export growth, expected to be a key highlight for year-end economic performance[1] - The upcoming Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conferences are unlikely to introduce further growth-stabilizing policies for the year[1] - The RMB has shown signs of accelerated appreciation, with both onshore and offshore rates surpassing 7.07, marking a new high in over a year[1] International Economic Context - The Japanese yen is approaching the 155-160 range, increasing the likelihood of a December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which could impact global capital markets[1] - Ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not yielded substantial progress in negotiations, maintaining a stalemate[1] Asset Pricing Outlook - By 2026, China's asset pricing anchor is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with total factor productivity already on the rise this year[2] - The valuation center for equity assets is anticipated to shift upward significantly, indicating a return to growth-driven asset pricing[2] - December's late period may present a buying opportunity, although potential risk-off scenarios due to U.S.-Japan monetary discrepancies may necessitate a delay[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's operations remain moderately tight, with a net injection of 663.8 billion yuan through reverse repos this week[6] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 1.228 basis points to 1.3005%, while DR007 fell by 1.93 basis points to 1.4431%[7] Government Debt and Market Performance - The net issuance of government bonds has slightly eased, with a planned issuance of 3904.55 billion yuan for the upcoming week, up from 3317.17 billion yuan[20] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% this week and 16.44% year-to-date[37]

Be reminded that we're going to have a FOMC meeting next week.That event, in itself, provides a cautious approaches on almost all occassions.#Bitcoin and #Altcoin markets tend to go risk-off prior to the event in anticipation of a potential hawkish tone of Powell.Wouldn't suggest otherwise this time. ...

🚨 It's risk-off day again. $BTC has lost last support before $100K as Mag 7 options flash contrary signal and Oracle credit default swap surges. by @godbole17https://t.co/ppKtTC52f9 ...

Market Trends - The gold market's upcoming decision point will influence risk-on vs risk-off sentiment in the broader market [1] - A breakdown in gold prices could signal a significant upward movement for altcoins [1]

Employment Data Summary - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] - The June non-farm data was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months[2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, major U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down 2.2%, and Dow Jones down 1.2%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 14.6 basis points to 4.22%, while the dollar index fell by 1.4% to 98.7[3] - Gold prices surged by 2.2% to $3,362.6 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from 40% to 87%[3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 rose from an average of 1.3 to 2.4 times, indicating at least two cuts are anticipated[3] Economic Assessment - The significant downward revision in non-farm data does not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, as high-frequency indicators remain strong[4] - The downward adjustments are attributed to government layoffs, increased immigration enforcement, and natural disasters affecting employment statistics[5] Seasonal Market Trends - Historically, August and September are weak months for overseas stock markets, with a potential shift to a risk-on environment if non-farm data improves in September or October[6]

One of the best correlations in the markets.- CNH/USD bottomed in April.- $ETH / $BTC bottomed in April.- Gold peaked in April.The risk-on vs. risk-off change already happened three months ago and since then $ETH has outperformed Bitcoin by 70%.This means that there's more upside to come in the next 12-24 months as the confidence is slowly getting build up. ...