Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Cement Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese cement industry is experiencing a slowdown in domestic demand, prompting companies to seek growth through overseas expansion, particularly in developing markets in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa where cement prices are significantly higher than in China (less than US$50/t) [2][30] - The domestic cement production peaked in 2014 and has been declining, with a 10% year-over-year drop to 1.8 billion tons in 2024, primarily due to a downturn in the property sector [12][21] Key Players - **Huaxin Cement**: Initiated with an Overweight (OW) rating, it is well-positioned for overseas expansion due to its significant presence in Africa and strong growth outlook [6][18] - **Anhui Conch**: Focused on Southeast and Central Asia, with a strategy primarily based on new builds [5][16] - **West China Cement (WCC)**: Concentrated on Central Asia and Africa, with a high gross profit margin from overseas operations [5][16] - **China National Building Material (CNBM)**: Engaged in operations in Africa and Asia, with plans for further expansion into the Mediterranean region [5][16] Overseas Expansion Insights - Chinese cement companies are shifting their overseas strategy from new builds to acquisitions to maintain local supply-demand balance [5][16] - Huaxin's overseas cement shipment volume is projected to grow from 16.2 million tons in 2024 to 25.8 million tons in 2027, with gross profit contribution from overseas cement rising from 32% to 49% during the same period [14] - WCC's overseas shipment volume is expected to increase from 3.6 million tons in 2024 to 13.4 million tons in 2027, with gross profit contribution growing from 54% to 67% [14] Infrastructure Projects - Major infrastructure projects, such as the China-Laos railway and the upcoming China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, are expected to drive incremental demand for cement [4][15][60] - The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is projected to generate 5.2 million tons of incremental demand over six years, benefiting companies like Huaxin [60] Market Dynamics - The cement market in Africa is characterized by high prices, often exceeding US$100/t, with some regions reaching US$200-300/t [61] - Central Asia shows low cement consumption per capita and high growth potential, particularly in Uzbekistan, which has seen significant capacity expansion [58] Risks and Challenges - Risks associated with overseas expansion include political stability, foreign exchange stability, competition, and demand growth, which vary by country [19] - The Chinese cement industry is expected to face overcapacity issues even after a projected 20% reduction in capacity due to supply control policies [13] Financial Projections - Huaxin's price target is set at HK$21.8, reflecting its attractive valuation based on high profitability and earnings growth visibility [6][18] - The gross profit margin for domestic operations has declined to 15-25% amid a demand slowdown, while overseas operations maintain a higher margin of approximately 40% [41] Conclusion - The Chinese cement industry is navigating a challenging domestic environment by strategically expanding overseas, particularly in high-growth markets. Companies like Huaxin are positioned to capitalize on this trend, supported by infrastructure projects and favorable market conditions in targeted regions.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic markets have remained stable despite challenges such as US tariffs and significant foreign institutional investor selling, supported by favorable monsoon conditions and expected recovery in domestic demand [1][2]. Market Analysis - The Nifty is valued at a 15-year average P/E multiple of 19.2x, with a 12-month target of 28,781, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27,609. In a bull case scenario, the target rises to 30,220, while in a bear case, it drops to 25,903 [3]. Sector Performance - Domestic-oriented sectors are expected to outperform, with banks, NBFCs, auto, retail, consumer staples, defense, metals, and select durables identified as key outperformers [4]. Earnings Forecast - Strong growth is anticipated for Q2FY26, with a projected 9.7% rise in sales, 11.2% growth in EBIDTA, and a 9.9% increase in Profit Before Tax (PBT) [5]. Growth Drivers - The growth trajectory is expected to be driven by commodities such as metals, cement, and oil and gas, along with sectors like telecom, AMC, and EMS. Conversely, banks, Housing Finance Companies, media, and travel sectors are projected to see a decline in PBT [6]. Stock Recommendations - Preferred large-cap stocks include Adani Ports, Apollo Hospitals, Britannia, HAL, ICICI Bank, and ITC. Mid/small-cap picks include Amber Enterprises, DOMS Industries, Eris Lifesciences, and Voltamp Transformers. Recent additions to conviction picks are Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Amber Enterprises India, and Latent View Analytics, while Bharti Airtel, Aster DM Healthcare, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, and Ingersoll Rand (India) have been removed [7].

Company Expansion - Dangote Cement has opened a plant in Ivory Coast [1] Market Dynamics - Ivory Coast has one of the fastest-growing economies in the region [1]

Market Overview - Indian benchmark indices ended the week with gains of 1.6%, supported by strength in IT and healthcare stocks. The Nifty closed 103.55 points, or 0.41%, higher at 25,285.35, breaking out of a recent consolidation range [1][19]. Earnings Reports - Over 200 BSE-listed companies are set to announce their September quarter results this week, including major players like HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, HDFC Life Insurance, Infosys, Nestle India, Wipro, JSW Steel, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and UltraTech Cement [2][19]. - Non-Nifty companies such as IDFC First Bank, Yes Bank, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC), IndusInd Bank, and HDB Financial Services are also expected to report results [5][19]. - The market will react to DMart's earnings announced on Saturday [6][19]. Market Influences - U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose additional 100% tariffs on China may impact Asian markets, including India, following China's aggressive export curbs on rare earth minerals [7][19]. - U.S. equities fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq Composite down 820.20 points (3.5%) [8][19]. IPO Activity - The primary market is expected to remain quiet, with only one new mainboard IPO, Midwest, opening for subscription. Bidding will conclude for three ongoing mainboard issues and three SME offerings [9][19]. - Anticipated listings include Tata Capital and LG Electronics, scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, respectively, along with eight other companies set to debut during the week [9][19]. Corporate Actions - Key corporate actions include the record date for the 1:10 stock split of Tata Investment Corporation and the rights issue of Utkarsh Small Finance Bank on October 14, and the interim dividend of Rs 11 per share for Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on October 15 [10][19]. Institutional Activity - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers last week, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,603 crore over five sessions, with Friday's purchases totaling Rs 459.20 crore [11][19]. - Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also turned net buyers at Rs 8,391.2 crore for the week, with Friday's purchases amounting to Rs 1,707.83 crore [11][19]. Technical Analysis - Nifty formed a sizable bullish candle with a higher high and higher low on the weekly chart, indicating a continuation of the uptrend. The index closed above its short-term moving averages, retracing over 80% of its previous decline [12][19]. - The index is expected to maintain a positive bias, potentially heading towards 25,450, with further upside towards the June 2025 high of 25,670 if it moves above 25,450 [13][19]. Currency and Commodities - The Indian rupee closed stronger at 88.6850 against the U.S. dollar, compared to 88.7825 in the previous session, aided by RBI intervention [14][19]. - Brent and U.S. crude futures fell sharply, with U.S. WTI crude settling at $58.24 (down $3.27 or 5.32%) and Brent futures around $62.73 (down $3.13 or 4.80%) [16][19]. Investment Trends - With Diwali approaching, there is rising investor interest in gold and silver, while equities have seen pressure, with net inflows into equity mutual funds declining for a second straight month to Rs 30,422 crore in September, a 9% drop from August [17][19]. - In contrast, record sums were poured into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with inflows rising fourfold to Rs 8,363 crore, marking the highest-ever monthly inflow for the category [18][19].

Economic Overview - Russia's nominal GDP stands at $2.2 trillion, comparable to its level in 2013, prior to the annexation of Crimea [1] - The economy contracted by 1.4% in 2022 but is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, with a forecasted slowdown to 1.0% growth this year [8] Sector Performance - Non-military sectors of the economy have contracted by 5.4% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant economic strain [2] - The construction industry is facing a downturn, with cement consumption expected to fall below 60 million tonnes, a level not seen since the COVID pandemic [5] Labor Market Adjustments - Major companies, including Cemros, Russian Railways, and GAZ, have implemented a four-day workweek to manage labor costs amid economic challenges [6][12] - The unemployment rate has reached a record low of 2.1%, despite the economic difficulties [8] Government Intervention - The Russian government has been compelled to provide support across various sectors, including coal and metals, to prevent mass layoffs [17] - In previous economic downturns, state support was extended to major employers to mitigate discontent in industrial towns [16] Industry-Specific Challenges - The coal sector is particularly affected, with reports of 19,000 layoffs in the first half of 2025 and warnings of potential bankruptcies among coal enterprises [18][19] - The steel industry is also under pressure, with discussions of a moratorium on bankruptcies and indications of workforce reductions without mass layoffs [21][22]

Economic Overview - Russia's nominal GDP stands at $2.2 trillion, similar to its level in 2013, prior to the annexation of Crimea [1] - The economy contracted by 1.4% in 2022 but is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, with a forecasted slowdown to 1.0% growth this year [8] Sector Performance - Non-military sectors of the economy have contracted by 5.4% since the beginning of the year, indicating significant economic strain [2] - The construction industry is facing a downturn, with cement consumption expected to fall below 60 million tonnes, a level not seen since the COVID pandemic [5] Labor Market Adjustments - Major companies, including Cemros, Russian Railways, and GAZ, have implemented a four-day workweek to manage labor costs and avoid layoffs [6][12] - The unemployment rate has dropped to a record low of 2.1%, despite the economic challenges [8] Government Intervention - The Russian government has been compelled to provide support across various sectors, including coal and metals, to prevent mass layoffs and economic discontent [17][16] - In previous downturns, state support was extended to major employers, indicating a pattern of intervention during economic crises [16] Industry-Specific Challenges - The coal sector is particularly affected, with reports of 19,000 layoffs in the first half of 2025 and financial health deteriorating for many enterprises [18][19] - The steel industry is also under pressure, with discussions of a moratorium on bankruptcies and a quiet cutback in operations due to high interest rates and weak demand [21][22]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Condition**: A liquidity-driven bull market is ongoing, supported by supply disruptions, which is positively impacting commodity prices [1][2][17] Key Insights Commodity Preferences - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum equities are favored in the current market environment due to their strong performance and demand [1][2][17] - **Gold Outlook**: Anticipated further upside in gold prices driven by a weakening USD, strong ETF buying, and central bank purchases, alongside safe haven demand amid uncertainty [2][18] - **Copper Supply Dynamics**: Supply disruptions are expected to widen the global copper supply deficit in 2026, with a supportive macro environment of abundant liquidity and a weak dollar [19] - **Aluminum Margins**: Higher margins for aluminum smelters are projected due to capped capacity in China and limited ability to restart idled capacity in the US/Europe [20] Demand and Supply Trends - **Retail Demand**: Retail growth in autos and home appliances has weakened, attributed to a high base and early demand from trade-in subsidies [3] - **Construction Activity**: Property sales and construction remain subdued, with expectations for a major policy pivot requiring endorsement at the 4th Plenary Session [3] - **Anti-involution Policies**: Industries such as coal, cement, glass, and steel are facing production controls to curb overproduction, with specific guidelines issued to stabilize prices [4][21] Specific Sector Insights - **Cement Industry**: Policies to control overproduction are expected to lead to a 20% capacity exit during 2025-26, benefiting industry leaders through consolidation [21] - **Late-cycle Building Materials**: Demand for late-cycle building materials is expected to remain soft, although improvements may arise from secondary home sales and government programs [22] - **Lithium Demand**: Strong demand for lithium is noted, with potential supply disruptions due to resource reclassification at several mines [23] Price Forecasts - **Commodity Price Projections**: - **Gold**: Expected to rise to $4,400/oz by 2026, a 33% increase from current estimates [15] - **Copper**: Projected to reach $10,650/ton by 2026, reflecting a 9% increase [16] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated price of $2,750/ton by 2026, an 8% increase [16] Investment Recommendations - **Overweight Stocks**: CMOC, Hongqiao, Chalco, Anhui Conch, CNBM, and Baosteel are highlighted as preferred investment choices in the materials sector [2][17] - **Underweight Stocks**: Companies such as China Coal, Asia Cement, and Yancoal are recommended for underweight positions due to unfavorable market conditions [14] Additional Considerations - **Uranium Market**: Strong price momentum is expected in uranium, supported by major investment vehicles and contracting from utilities [24] - **Rare Earths**: Prices are anticipated to remain strong due to good downstream demand and tightened supply-side controls in China [25] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Greater China materials industry.

Core Points - The Department of Energy is proposing significant cuts to federal funding, which could impact various startups and major automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis [1][2] - The proposed cuts include the cancellation of over $500 million in contracts awarded to more than a dozen startups, in addition to previous cuts of more than $7.5 billion announced by the Trump administration [2][3] Impact on Startups - Startups are expected to face substantial losses, with some awards being critical to their operations. The proposed cuts include new awards that have not been publicly announced yet [5] - Notable startups affected include Brimstone, which was granted $189 million to build a plant for low-carbon materials, and Anovion, which aimed to produce synthetic graphite for lithium-ion batteries [6] Impact on Automakers - General Motors stands to lose at least $500 million from a federal grant intended for retooling its Lansing Grand River Assembly Plant for electrified vehicle production [4] - Other automakers, including Daimler Trucks North America, Harley-Davidson, and Volvo Technology of America, are also slated to lose grants worth hundreds of millions [3] Specific Grants Affected - Li Industries received $55.2 million for recycling LFP batteries, while Sublime Systems was awarded $86.9 million for an ultra-low-carbon cement plant. Both are at risk of losing their funding [7]

Core Points - The Department of Energy is proposing significant cuts to federal funding, which could impact various startups and major automakers like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis [1][2] - The proposed cuts include the cancellation of over $500 million in contracts awarded to more than a dozen startups, in addition to previous cuts of more than $7.5 billion announced by the Trump administration [2][3] Impact on Startups - Startups are expected to face substantial losses, with some awards being critical for their operations. The proposed cuts include new awards that have not been publicly announced yet [5] - Notable startups affected include Brimstone, which was set to receive $189 million for a plant to produce low-carbon materials, and Anovion, which aimed to build a factory for synthetic graphite [6] Impact on Automakers - General Motors could lose at least $500 million in grant money intended for retooling its Lansing Grand River Assembly Plant for electrified vehicle production [4] - Other automakers like Ford, Daimler Trucks North America, and Stellantis are also at risk of losing hundreds of millions in grants [3] Specific Grant Losses - Several building materials companies are on the list for proposed cuts, including CleanFiber and Hempitecture, which could lose $10 million and $8.4 million respectively [11] - TS Conductor, which produces advanced conductors for electric lines, is at risk of losing $28.2 million, which contradicts the administration's goals for energy dominance [12]

Core Insights - Bladex has successfully closed a syndicated loan of US$206 million for Cemento Panam to finance the acquisition of CEMEX's operations in Panama [1] - The loan has a seven-year term and was fully underwritten by Bladex, with participation from BAC Panama and Global Bank [1] - Cemento Panam, a subsidiary of Grupo Estrella, aims to strengthen its international expansion strategy through this acquisition [3] Group 1: Loan Details - The syndicated loan totals US$206 million and is structured as a seven-year term loan [1] - Bladex acted as the Sole Lead Arranger & Bookrunner, and also serves as the Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent for the loan [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The financing is seen as a strategic opportunity for both Cemento Panam and Panama, expected to boost the construction sector and positively impact the local economy [4] - Grupo Estrella's President emphasized the potential of the Panamanian market and the importance of this acquisition for the cement industry and infrastructure projects [5] Group 3: Company Background - Bladex is a multinational bank established in 1979 to promote trade finance and economic integration in Latin America [6] - The bank is headquartered in Panama and has been listed on the NYSE since 1992, with a diverse shareholder base including central banks and institutional investors from 23 Latin American countries [6]