Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Basic Materials** sector in the **Asia-Pacific** region, particularly in **cement, steel, metals, and coal** industries [1] - There is a noted trend of **supply rationalization** and **demand boost**, although the near-term impact is expected to be limited [1] Core Insights and Arguments Supply Rationalization - The **Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)** announced plans to stabilize growth in **10 key industries**, expanding to include metals and petrochemicals [1] - **Cement** sector capacity is to be cut to **1.6 billion tons (bnt)** from **2.1 bnt**, with a flexibility of 10% [2] - **Steel** production is expected to see a **3-5% supply cut** in FY25, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) likely to cut **8-10%** from July to December [2][16] - **Lithium** production is facing disruptions, with a subsidiary of Zangge Mining ordered to suspend operations [36][37] Demand Boost - The announcement of a **RMB1.2 trillion** investment in the **Tibet mega-dam** is expected to positively impact market sentiment and drive demand for cement and steel [1][49] - The cement demand from the mega-dam project is projected at **30-40 million tons**, which is significant for local demand in Tibet [50] - The steel consumption from the mega-dam is estimated at **8-9 million tons** over the construction period [51] Price Trends - The average national cement price decreased by **0.5% week-over-week (WoW)** to **RMB330/ton** [11] - Steel margins are improving, with average rebar spot margin at **RMB99/ton**, compared to a loss of **RMB82/ton** in FY24 [16] - The price of imported iron ore increased by **2.3% WoW** to **US$99/ton** [23] Other Important Insights - The **solar sector** is undergoing significant changes, with a **30% production capacity cut** in solar glass and discussions of potential industry consolidation [26][30] - The **high-quality development action plans** for copper, aluminum, and gold industries aim to enhance resource assurance and technological innovation [32][33][34][35] - The **National Energy Administration (NEA)** is verifying coal production in eight provinces, but the impact on supply is expected to be limited [3][41][43] Conclusion - The **Basic Materials** sector is experiencing a shift towards supply rationalization and demand stimulation, particularly influenced by government initiatives and large infrastructure projects. However, the immediate effects on prices and production levels may take time to materialize, and ongoing disruptions in lithium and coal production could pose risks to supply stability [1][36][41]

Aliko Dangote has retired as chairman and director of Nigeria’s Dangote Cement Plc, the company he founded, according to a statement https://t.co/V4W43PkWnS ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese market**, particularly the **new energy vehicles (NEV)**, **solar**, **coal**, and **cement** sectors, in the context of the **anti-involution initiative** aimed at reducing unhealthy competition and improving corporate profitability [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Initiative**: - The initiative is gaining momentum, with calls for industries to self-regulate to avoid damaging competition. This is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics, drive price recovery, and enhance corporate profitability [2][3]. - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by **2.8% YoY** in the first half of 2025, marking the **33rd consecutive month** of declines, alongside a **9.1% YoY drop** in industrial profit in May [2][12][14]. 2. **Market Reactions**: - Historical parallels are drawn to the **2015-16 supply-side reform**, which led to price increases in materials and a re-rating of relevant sectors. Sectors addressing unhealthy competition, such as solar and power batteries, have recently rebounded [3][4][21]. - Stock prices initially reacted positively to new policies during the supply-side reform, providing excess returns relative to the broader market for **1-2 months** [4]. 3. **Commodity Price Correlation**: - Stock prices initially moved in tandem with commodity prices and production changes, but later decoupled. Significant price increases for relevant commodities occurred during two periods in 2015-16 [5][26]. 4. **Corporate Profitability**: - The coal sector's profitability improved significantly in the second half of 2016, with nearly **90% of capacity** turning profitable by the end of Q3 2016, compared to **8%** in November 2015 [6][31]. 5. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: - The anti-involution push is expected to have a smoother and longer-lasting impact on stock prices compared to the supply-side reform, focusing more on downstream industries where non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) are prevalent [7][9]. Indicators for Investors - Investors should monitor: - Specific capacity controls and recovery in product prices (e.g., polysilicon prices) - Capacity utilization rates in relevant businesses - Rebound in PPI - Indicators such as industrial profit growth and the proportion of profitable businesses, which may lag behind stock price movements [10][36]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need for clearer guidelines and stronger support for domestic demand as the anti-involution initiative progresses [10]. - The potential risks facing China's equities include a hard landing in the property market and slow structural reform progress, which could shock the market if not adequately addressed [38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries in China.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for the quarter increased by 38% due to strong foreign exchange rates and lower interest expenses [13] - Free cash flow from operations was slightly over $200 million, with a year-over-year increase of 3% when adjusted for severance payments and discontinued operations [33][34] - Consolidated EBITDA margin remained resilient, slightly above the historical ten-year second quarter average, despite a significant volume decline [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the EMEA region, strong volume recovery and operating leverage led to impressive results, extending four consecutive quarters of earnings recovery [12] - Consolidated prices for ready mix and aggregates increased by 12% sequentially, while cement prices remained relatively flat year-over-year [14] - In the U.S., ready mix volume adjusted for asset divestitures declined by a mid-single-digit rate, while aggregate prices increased by 5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Mexican market faced challenges due to difficult prior year comparisons and record precipitation levels, impacting volumes [19] - The EMEA region experienced strong demand conditions, with double-digit growth rates in the Middle East and Africa [28] - In the U.S., the residential sector showed weakness, but infrastructure projects and data centers are expected to drive demand in the second half of the year [101] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and sustainable shareholder returns, with a roadmap to streamline operations and empower regional teams [5][6] - A strategic shift towards prioritizing small to midsize M&A transactions in the U.S. is planned, aiming for immediate positive impacts on earnings [9] - The company aims to progressively grow its shareholder return program, including potential dividend increases and opportunistic share buybacks [48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the second half of the year, expecting improvements in volumes in Mexico as the government accelerates infrastructure projects [21] - The company anticipates a tailwind of about $60 million in consolidated EBITDA if foreign exchange rates remain stable [38] - Management acknowledged the volatility and lack of visibility in key markets but remains confident in self-help measures taken to date [38] Other Important Information - The company expects EBITDA savings from Project Cutting Edge to reach $200 million this year, up from an initial expectation of $150 million [10] - Energy costs on a per ton of cement basis declined by 15% in the first half, driven by lower power and fuel prices [34] - The company has a comfortable debt maturity schedule with no immediate need to access capital markets [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Additional savings from Project Cutting Edge - Management indicated that the additional $50 million in savings mainly comes from overhead headcount reductions, with confidence in achieving the $200 million target [42][43] Question: Shareholder return platform - The company clarified that building a shareholder return platform involves capital allocation decisions focused on shareholder returns, including potential dividend increases and share buybacks [48][49] Question: Free cash flow generation levers - Management highlighted that free cash flow generation will be driven by various factors, including reduced CapEx, cutting edge savings, and operational excellence [51][56] Question: New corporate structure and free cash flow conversion - Management explained that the new corporate structure aims to decentralize operational excellence initiatives, which will support improved free cash flow conversion [59][62] Question: Pricing trends in Mexico and the U.S. - Management confirmed a price increase in Mexico effective July 1, expecting further improvements, while in the U.S., cement prices are not expected to increase significantly [72][74] Question: EMEA region performance outlook - Management expressed excitement about the EMEA region, anticipating strong growth driven by infrastructure investments and potential reconstruction efforts in Ukraine [78][80]

Cemex's earnings surpassed expectations as the Mexican cement maker benefited from a rebound in Europe https://t.co/RMVUP2rXDG ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily update on the fixed - income market, including bond price changes, new issuances, and macro - news. It also analyzes the profit situation of WESCHI and gives investment suggestions [1][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, GUOTJU priced a 3 - year floating - rated bond at SOFR + 60 (IPT at SOFR + 115). In KR, spreads of DAESEC/SHINFN/NACF 26 - 30s widened by 1 - 2bps. HYNMTR Float 30 tightened 8bps, and HYNMTR 5.3 29/HYNMTR 3.5 31 tightened 2 - 4bps [1]. - In Chinese IGs, BABA/HAOHUA 28 - 35s were unchanged to 1bps tighter, while MEITUA 30 widened 2bps. In financials, BBLTB/KBANK 31 - 40s tightened 2 - 4bps, and NANYAN/BNKEA 30 - 34s tightened 2 - 3bps [1]. - In insurance, SHIKON/CATLIF 34 - 35s were unchanged to 1bp tighter. MYLIFE/NIPLIF 54 - 55s and SUMILF/FUKOKU Perps were up 0.1 - 0.3pt. In AT1s, NWG 7.3/BNP 7.375/HSBC 6.95 Perps were up 0.2 - 0.8pt [1]. - In HK, AIA/CKHH 30 - 35s tightened 1 - 2bps under buying from PBs. LIFUNG 5.25 Perp was 3.1pts higher, and LIFUNG 5.25 08/18/25 was up 0.1pt. Li & Fung launched a tender offer for LIFUNG 5.25 Perp up to USD50mn at USD55 and mandated a 3.5 - year USD bond issuance [1]. - HYSAN/FAEACO Perps were up 0.2 - 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 was up 0.7pt. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been working on a HKD3.5bn 5 - year loan refinancing deal. NWDEVL 27 - 31s/Perps were unchanged to 0.4pt lower [1]. - In Chinese properties, ROADKG 28 - 30s were 0.5 - 3.6pts lower, and ROADKG Perps were unchanged to 0.2pt lower. Outside properties, WESCHI 26 was up 0.2pt. FOSUNI 25 - 28s were up 0.3 - 0.5pt. MONMIN 30 was up 0.7pt, closed 2.6pts higher WTD [1]. New Issuances - TEMASE priced 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 1.85%, 2.05%, and 2.55% (IPT at 2.3%, 2.55%, and 3.05%) respectively [2]. - CHMEDA priced 5 - year and 10 - year CNH bonds at par to yield 2% and 2.3% (IPT at 2.55% and 2.85% area) respectively [4]. - Jiaozuo State - owned Capital Operation (Holding) Group issued a 150 - million 3 - year bond at a 6.5% coupon rate, unrated [12]. Morning Updates - This morning, the new CNH TEMASE 1.85 30/TEMASE 2.05 35 were 0.1 - 0.2pt lower, while TEMASE 2.55 55 was 0.5pt higher from ROs at par. The new CNH CHMEDA 2 30/CHMEDA 2.3 35 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. VLLPM 29 was up 0.5pt [3]. - WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 was up 1.0pt this morning post - positive profit alert. HYUELEs were unchanged this morning as SK Hynix 2Q25 EBITDA rose 47% yoy to KRW12.7tn (cUSD9.1bn) [3]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.78%), Dow (+1.14%), and Nasdaq (+0.61%) were higher. Trump said countries will face tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% ahead of an 1 Aug '25 deadline. The US may impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. UST yield was higher on Wednesday, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.88%/3.94%/4.40%/4.95% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments - West China Cement (WESCHI) expects the profit attributable to owners to increase 80 - 100% yoy to RMB696 - 774mn in 1H25, driven by overseas cement revenue, mainland China cement sales, property sales profit, and reversal of impairment losses [8]. - WESCHI plans to use proceeds from non - core asset sales to partly repay its WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 due in Jul '26. The company also plans to sell other assets and offshore projects for bond repayment [9]. - Despite potential recovery in the Chinese cement market, caution remains regarding WESCHI's ability to remit cash from African operations. The full and timely repayment of the bond is uncertain. The report maintains a neutral rating on WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26 and prefers BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and EHICARs in the China HY space [10]. News and Market Color - Regarding onshore primary issuances, 123 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB119bn. Month - to - date, 1,592 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,699bn, a 16.6% yoy increase [14]. - Adani Ports is in the race to set up a logistics park in north India. San Miguel buys a 3.8% stake in First Pacific - owned Meralco for PHP3.9bn (cUSD68.4mn) [14]. - Fosun will early redeem USD178.857mn FOSUNI 5.95 10/19/25 at 101 on 22 Aug '25. China Hongqiao seeks a USD300mn - equivalent three - year loan [14]. - JD.com will create a virtual restaurant chain. Media reported Lai Sun Development has been seeking an HKD3.5bn loan refinancing deal, but about half of the lenders have yet to commit [14]. - Li & Fung says no covenant restriction on perp refi, and the final plan depends on EBITDA. Rakuten sells JPY bonds for JPY30bn (cUSD204mn) for 5G projects [14]. - Sands China 2Q25 adjusted property EBITDA climbs 0.9% yoy to USD566mn. Viceroy alleges Vedanta's promoters siphon margins from Hindustan Zinc [14]. Top Performers and Underperformers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIFUNG 5 1/4 PERP | 51.4 | 3.1 | ROADKG 5 1/8 01/26/30 | 22.8 | - 3.6 | | NSANY 5 1/4 07/17/29 | 100.9 | 1.1 | ROADKG 6.7 03/30/28 | 26.5 | - 1.7 | | NWG 7.3 PERP | 102.3 | 0.8 | ROADKG 6 03/04/29 | 25.8 | - 1.7 | | MONMIN 8.44 04/03/30 | 97.4 | 0.7 | GRNLGR 5 7/8 07/03/30 | 21.9 | - 0.9 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 52.0 | 0.7 | ROADKG 5.2 07/12/29 | 25.9 | - 0.6 | [5]

2024年8月8日，中国台湾地区财政主管部门发布公告称，应台湾地区行业协会申请，对原产于越南的卜 特兰水泥及其熟料启动反倾销调查。2025年5月21日，中国台湾地区财政主管部门对该案作出肯定性终 裁。 据中国贸易救济信息网消息，2025年7月22日，中国台湾地区财政主管部门发布公告，决定对原产于越 南的卜特兰水泥及其熟料（Portland Cement、Portland Cement Clinker）征收13.59%～23.20%的反倾销 税，具体如下：Long Son Company Limited及Long Son Industrials Company Limited为13.59%、Thang Long Cement Joint Stock Company为19.25%、Vissai Ninh Binh Joint Stock Company、Xuan Thanh Cement Joint Stock Company、Vicem Ha Tien Cement Joint Stock Company - Vicem Ha Tien Cement Sales & Services Enterprise均为1 ...

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current state of demand and supply dynamics as of July 2025. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** showed a mild month-over-month (MoM) increase but remained at low levels, indicating weak overall demand [1] - **Infrastructure construction** has weakened significantly, with a noticeable deceleration in new project starts due to ongoing funding constraints and stringent payment requirements [1] - **Metal demand** has softened, with signs of inventory buildup in the supply chain, influenced by seasonal softness and a sequential correction in domestic solar demand [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **7-11% lower year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **1-10% lower** for copper, flat steel, and aluminum [1] Supply Dynamics - The determination on supply adjustments remains mixed, with: - **Steel production cuts** beginning but with heterogeneous targets discussed [1] - Local government commitments on capacity elimination in cement being absent [1] - Marginal coal miners showing reluctance to cut production amid poor pricing [1] - Surprises in the oversupplied lithium market due to mining license approval inspections [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have weakened [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **31% of respondents** in downstream sectors and **30%** in basic materials reported a MoM pickup in July, while **25%** and **24%** indicated a lower MoM trend, respectively [2] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **importance of funding** in infrastructure projects, which is currently constrained, affecting new project initiations [1] - The **mixed signals** in supply adjustments suggest a complex market environment where producers are navigating between demand pressures and pricing strategies [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing a challenging environment characterized by weakening demand, mixed supply responses, and significant pressures on pricing and margins across various materials. The insights from producer feedback and high-frequency data provide a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics, indicating potential risks and opportunities for investors in this sector.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Key Project**: Construction of a new hydro station in Tibet with a total investment of Rmb1.2 trillion and an installed capacity of 60-70GW, which is three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Capacity and Power Generation**: The new hydro station is expected to generate over 300TWh annually, with a construction timeline of 18-20 years, including 13 years for the main body and 5 years for auxiliary facilities [2][8] - **Material Demand**: The project will require 20-30 million tons of cement in total, with an annual demand of 1-1.5 million tons. Local companies such as Huaxin, CNBM, and Conch are positioned to benefit due to their proximity to the project [3][8] - **Cement Pricing**: Current cement prices in Tibet are Rmb500 per ton, significantly higher than the national average of Rmb330 per ton, indicating a favorable pricing environment for local producers [3] - **Impact on Metals**: The hydro station will increase demand for copper and aluminum due to the power equipment and cables required for power transfer. This could also stimulate local investments in data centers and other power-intensive projects [4][8] - **Thermal Power Impact**: Once operational, the hydro station may negatively affect demand for thermal power and thermal coal [8] Additional Important Points - **Beneficiaries**: Cement and steel sectors are direct beneficiaries during the construction phase, with local factories expected to receive orders [3][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: The project aligns with the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may lead to stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand [10][21] - **Risks**: Potential risks include weaker-than-expected property demand, government intervention in cement pricing, and production suspensions due to environmental regulations [13][18][22] Company-Specific Insights - **Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd**: Price target derived from A-share price target, with a higher A/H premium of 35% since 2023 [9] - **China National Building Material Company**: Price target based on a discounted cash flow model with a cost of equity of 13.5% [15] - **Huaxin Cement Co**: Price target derived using a discounted cash flow model, with a focus on demand in Hubei and Yunnan [22] Conclusion The construction of the hydro station in Tibet represents a significant investment opportunity for the materials sector, particularly for cement and metal producers. The project is expected to drive demand and pricing in these sectors while also posing certain risks related to market dynamics and government policies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on **China's Supply-Side Reform 2.0 (SSR2.0)**, particularly in the **manufacturing sector** including steel, solar, and cement industries [1][10][18] - The context includes ongoing **PPI deflation** and the need to address **overcapacity** and **intense competition** in various sectors [2][25][27] Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilience in Manufacturing**: Despite weaknesses in the property market, manufacturing **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** remains strong, indicating potential for recovery [1] - **PPI Challenges**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is struggling in negative territory, with prolonged deflation impacting profitability across industries [1][38] - **SSR2.0 Expectations**: Authorities are expected to implement SSR2.0 to combat overcapacity and price wars, with less aggressive capacity cuts compared to SSR1.0 [2][3][15] - **Sector-Specific Measures**: The reforms will likely include capacity control, production cuts, and regulatory tightening, particularly in sectors like coal, aluminum, and steel [4][63][64] Key Differences Between SSR2.0 and SSR1.0 - **Demand Stimulus**: SSR1.0 had strong stimulus measures, while SSR2.0 is expected to have a milder approach [3][15] - **Capacity Concentration**: SSR1.0 focused on upstream sectors dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whereas SSR2.0 will address mid- and downstream sectors [3][15] - **Implementation Challenges**: Policymakers may face difficulties in enforcing reforms due to the complexity of the current industrial landscape [3][65] Potential Outcomes and Stock Picks - **Base Case Scenario**: Mild demand stimulus with modest improvements in prices and margins for steel, cement, and solar sectors. Preferred stocks include **Baosteel, Tongwei, and Conch Cement** [5][18] - **Bull Case Scenario**: Stronger demand stimulus could benefit additional sectors like lithium and batteries, with preferred stocks being **Angang, CNBM, CATL, and Tongwei** [5][18] - **Bear Case Scenario**: Less effective supply control could lead to underwhelming demand, favoring existing winners from previous cycles like **Hongqiao and Chalco** [5][18] Important but Overlooked Aspects - **Historical Context**: Previous successful reforms in coal and aluminum contrast with the underperformance of the steel sector, highlighting the need for targeted interventions [12][15] - **Trade Tensions**: Rising trade disputes, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors, could complicate the reform landscape [38][50] - **Labor Market Impact**: The expected labor market impact from SSR2.0 is anticipated to be minimal compared to previous reforms, with less aggressive capacity cuts [66][70] Conclusion - SSR2.0 is positioned as a critical response to ongoing economic challenges in China, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving profitability across key sectors. The effectiveness of these reforms will depend on the implementation of supportive demand-side measures and the ability to manage overcapacity effectively [1][27][66]