Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. equity markets are experiencing a downtrend due to President Trump's proposed tariffs on imported goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, set to take effect in August [1] - The sudden shift in tariff policy has increased market uncertainty and financial turmoil, prompting policymakers to take action to protect their economies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are turning to momentum stocks as a strategy to achieve sustained profits amid market volatility [2] - Momentum investing is based on the principle of "buying high and selling higher," capitalizing on established trends in stock prices [3] Group 3: Momentum Strategy Implementation - A screening strategy has been developed to identify momentum anomaly stocks, focusing on the top 50 stocks with the best percentage price change over the last 52 weeks [5] - The strategy also includes selecting stocks that are among the 10 worst performers over the past week to identify those experiencing a short-term pullback [6] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of B or better are prioritized for selection, indicating a higher probability of success [7] Group 4: Selected Stocks - Urban Outfitters, Inc. has seen a 63.6% increase in stock price over the past year but a 4.2% decline in the past week, with a Momentum Score of B [8] - Royal Gold, Inc. has experienced a 22% increase in stock price over the past year but a 9.8% decline in the past week, holding a Momentum Score of A [9] - Kodiak Gas Services has seen a 25.3% increase in stock price over the past year but a 3.8% decline in the past week, also with a Momentum Score of A [10]

Core Viewpoint - Alamos Gold (AGI) shows potential for upside with a mean price target of $34.44, indicating a 27.6% increase from the current price of $26.99 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Consensus - The average price target consists of 10 estimates ranging from a low of $23.74 to a high of $38.36, with a standard deviation of $4.17, suggesting variability in analyst predictions [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a potential decline of 12%, while the highest suggests a 42.1% upside [2] - A low standard deviation indicates strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction [9] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Optimism - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about AGI's earnings prospects, with a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 12.5% over the past month, with two estimates rising and one falling [12] - AGI holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are commonly referenced, they can mislead investors, as empirical research shows they rarely indicate actual stock price movements [7][10] - Analysts may set overly optimistic price targets due to business incentives, which can inflate expectations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive stance on gold and copper, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7][10]. Core Insights - Copper is currently experiencing historical backwardation, with LME copper spot prices surpassing USD 10,000 per ton, driven by inventory depletion and redirection of shipments to the US [2]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, which is expected to support cobalt prices in the near term [3][4]. - Aluminium output reached a new monthly high in May, supported by strong demand and improved smelter margins [5]. - Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold, with expectations for continued increases in official gold reserves over the next year [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper spot prices exceeded USD 10,000/t, with a backwardation of over USD 300/t for 3-month futures [2]. - Year-to-date inventory at LME has decreased by 180,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 115,000 tons due to tariff concerns [2]. - Ivanhoe has reduced its 2025 copper production guidance by 28% [2]. Cobalt - DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended by three months, impacting supply and supporting price stability [3]. - Cobalt prices surged over 60% following the initial ban and are expected to remain strong due to continued restrictions [3]. Aluminium - Aluminium production in May rose approximately 5% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4% [5]. - China's aluminium inventory dropped by around 400,000 tons over the past three months, indicating robust downstream demand [5]. Gold - Central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold annually, significantly higher than the average of 400-500 tons in the past decade [6]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Market Sentiment - Improved US-China trade talks have positively influenced market sentiment, particularly for base metals [10]. - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the report suggests a preference for gold and copper investments among China materials [10].

6月30日，国际黄金市场延续近期下行趋势，现货黄金价格盘中触及3246.55美元/盎司，创近一个月新 低。截至10时25分，黄金价格有所回升，伦敦金现报3281.257美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货价格报 | 3291.5美元/盎司。 | | --- | 受国际金价拖累，国内品牌金饰价格全线跌破1000元/克心理关口。周大福、周生生、周六福等品牌足 金饰品报价集中在978元/克至990元/克区间，除周六福外，其余品牌日跌幅在0.9%—1.2%之间。 | | 国内现货 国际现货 黄金实物 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老凤祥 | | | 990 | -1.20% | | 周六福 | | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | | 984 | -1.20% | | 六届休主 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 我要望 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老庙 | | | 987 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, both in the international market and domestic jewelry prices, alongside a new government initiative aimed at enhancing the gold industry in China. Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On the evening of the 24th, international precious metal futures generally fell, with spot gold dropping over 2% at one point, closing at $3322.93 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures closed down 1.66% at $3338.5 per ounce [1] - As of the morning of the 25th, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures saw slight increases, with spot gold rising 0.21% to $3329.830 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 0.39% to $3346.8 per ounce [1] - Following these international trends, domestic gold jewelry prices also declined, with major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao reporting prices around 998 to 1006 RMB per gram, reflecting decreases of 14 RMB, 8 RMB, and 6 RMB respectively [3] Group 2: Government Initiative for Gold Industry - A joint implementation plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry in China has been issued by nine government departments, aiming for a 5% to 10% increase in gold resource volume and over 5% growth in gold and silver production by 2027 [10] - The plan emphasizes the strategic importance of gold as a mineral resource, highlighting its dual role as a commodity and currency, which is crucial for national industrial and financial security [10] - Key tasks outlined in the plan include enhancing domestic resource exploration, advancing critical technology and equipment, establishing green mines and factories, and promoting the recycling of gold and silver from electronic waste [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatile market conditions in 2025, highlighting the performance of top stock picks and the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on market dynamics [7][9][19]. Market Overview - The US equity market experienced significant fluctuations due to tariff announcements, leading to a major correction in April 2025, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 15% from its 52-week high [9][10]. - A barbell investment approach was recommended to diversify portfolios during market corrections, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals and good dividend yields [10][13]. Stock Performance - The top 10 stocks recommended at the beginning of 2025 saw a performance swing from over 20% gains to below 20%, reflecting a nearly 40% change during the volatile period [15][16]. - By mid-2025, many of these stocks rebounded as fear subsided and investors returned to fundamentals [16]. Economic Indicators - Inflation rates showed a surprising decrease, with core CPI at 0.1% for May, and there is speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [22][23]. - The recession risk appears less severe than previously anticipated, with GDP growth projected to exceed 2% annualized after a decline in Q1 [23][31]. Top Stock Picks - **Barclays (NYSE: BCS)**: A diversified bank with a market cap of $62 billion, ranked 12 out of 691 in financial institutions, offering a dividend yield of 2.47% and a forward EPS growth rate of 28% [80][81]. - **Prudential (NYSE: PUK)**: Based in Hong Kong, this insurance company ranks 1 out of 19 in its industry, with a forward dividend yield of 1.89% and a long-term EPS growth rate of 17% [86][89]. - **FinVolution (NYSE: FINV)**: A fintech company with a market cap of $2.2 billion, ranking 7 out of 691 in financials, showing a 255% operating cash flow growth rate [93][94]. - **Power Solutions International (NASDAQ: PSIX)**: A small-cap company with a market cap of $1.23 billion, ranked number one in the industrials sector, with a one-year return of 835% [97][99]. - **New Gold (NYSE: NGD)**: Focused on gold, silver, and copper exploration, with an operating cash flow growth rate of 56% [107][110]. - **Gold Fields Limited (NYSE: GFI)**: A diversified mining company with a 37% EPS forward long-term growth rate, ranking 5 in the materials sector [111][113]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes a data-driven approach to stock selection, utilizing a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy that combines growth, value, profitability, and momentum metrics [40][42]. - The new PRO Quant Portfolio offers a higher frequency of stock ideas, designed for active investors, with a focus on global stocks across various market caps [59][64].

行业评级：看好 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | 表：黄金行业上市公司的自产金产量预测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 黄金资源量 | 总市值（亿元） | | | | 全口径自产金（吨） | | | | 25E-27E | | 单吨产量市值（亿元/吨） | 单吨资源量市值（亿元） | | PE | | | （2024；吨） | 2025-06-16 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 产量CAGR | 2024 | 2027E | 2024A | 2025E | 2027E | | 山金国际 | 277 | 569 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1 3 | 1 5 | 34% | 8 1 | 3 9 | 2.1 | 1 8 | 1 2 | | 招金矿业 | 1304 | 672 ...

摘要现货黄金周四（6月12日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，现货黄金收报3385.37美元/盎司，上涨30.35美元或 0.90%，日内最高上探3398.86美元/盎司，最低触及3338.29美元/盎司。 现货黄金周四（6月12日）日K收涨，美市尾盘，现货黄金收报3385.37美元/盎司，上涨30.35美元或 0.90%，日内最高上探3398.86美元/盎司，最低触及3338.29美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至6月12日，黄金ETF持有量为937.91吨，较上一交易日 减持3.72吨。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司） | 净持仓量（吨） | 总价值（美元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-12 | 30154864.16 | 937.91 | 102254006159.12 | | 2025-06-11 | 30035071.18 | 934.19 | 99995692490.02 | （注：黄金ETF持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨黄金的情绪升温，利多黄金；黄金ETF持仓减少， 表明卖盘增加，市场看跌黄金的情绪升温， ...

智通财经6月13日电，黄金概念延续昨日强势，恒邦股份走出2连板，西部黄金、萃华珠宝涨停，晓程科 技、曼卡龙、赤峰黄金、四川黄金等跟涨。消息面上，国际金价早盘涨逾1%，逼近3430美元/盎司。 黄金概念延续强势 恒邦股份2连板 ...

智通财经6月12日电，黄金股午后震荡拉升，恒邦股份、潮宏基双双涨停，曼卡龙、晓程科技、莱绅通 灵涨超5%，四川黄金、紫金矿业、西部黄金、赤峰黄金等跟涨。消息面上，港股老铺黄金午后一度拉 升涨超6%，年初至今已升逾290%。 黄金概念股震荡拉升 恒邦股份、潮宏基双双涨停 ...