晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jinghua Laser Technology Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 105.93 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.46% [5][28]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 906.23 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 19.44% compared to 2023 [28]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 105.93 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 86.27 million yuan, reflecting an 8.60% increase year-on-year [28]. - Total assets reached 1.69 billion yuan, up 5.27% from the previous year, while equity attributable to shareholders increased by 1.66% to 1.03 billion yuan [5][28]. Business Segments - The company focuses on three main business segments: cigarette labels, wine labels, and cultural creative products [6][7]. - Cigarette label revenue was 530.43 million yuan, a decrease of 1.2% due to market changes and consumption differentiation [8][9]. - Wine label revenue grew by 17% to 154.19 million yuan, supported by the acquisition of Ruiming Technology and its advanced technology [9]. - Cultural creative products saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 184.62 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 240.83% driven by popular IP products [10]. Market Trends - The consumer market in China is gradually recovering, with increasing consumer confidence and diverse consumption patterns emerging [6]. - The company is adapting to market changes by optimizing product structures and enhancing customer service models [8]. Future Plans - The company plans to enhance its market competitiveness by expanding its product lines and investing in innovation, particularly in the fields of cigarette and wine labels, as well as cultural creative products [16][17]. - A new project for expanding production capacity of UV light-etched anti-counterfeiting materials is underway to meet the growing demand in the cultural creative sector [17]. Governance and Compliance - The board of directors held four meetings in 2024, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [14][21]. - The supervisory board conducted oversight of the company's operations and financial status, confirming adherence to legal standards and internal controls [22][24].

Group 1: Business Performance - The company's engineering business revenue reached approximately 221.56 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 34% [2] - The overall operating revenue for 2024 was 1,838.87 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 26.33% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 253.43 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.76% [4] Group 2: New Business Ventures - The company acquired a 95.29% stake in Huaxin Color Printing in December 2024, a well-known provider of integrated packaging and printing services [3] - The integration of Huaxin Color Printing is expected to enhance the company's green technology capabilities, although it had no significant impact on the overall performance in 2024 [3] Group 3: Market Expansion Strategies - The company aims to expand its market presence beyond existing service areas, focusing on municipal engineering and environmental installation services [2] - The "Double Hundred Action" initiative will guide the company in market expansion and efficiency improvement [4] Group 4: Renewable Energy Initiatives - As of the end of 2024, the company had a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 27,000 kW for its photovoltaic power generation projects [4] - Future investments in renewable energy will align with national "dual carbon" policies, although the current impact on overall business performance is minimal [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 17.157 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.409 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.1% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the global expansion of the smartphone market, with a projected shipment of 300 million units in Q1 2025, representing a 1.5% year-on-year growth [2] - The company has established a robust global presence with over 100 subsidiaries and 40 production bases across 10 countries, enhancing its competitive edge [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 36.99 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.1%, and the net profit margin was 6.5%, showing stability in profitability metrics [4] Business Segments - The company’s main business segments showed varied performance in H2 2024, with paper-based premium packaging generating 7.236 billion yuan (up 10.7% year-on-year) and eco-friendly paper-plastic products growing significantly by 421.1% [2] - The company is positioned to benefit from the launch of new smartphone models and the ongoing demand for high-quality packaging solutions in the liquor and tobacco sectors [2] Operational Efficiency - The company has been improving its operational efficiency, with a net operating cash flow of 1.06 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a positive cash flow trend [4] - The company’s inventory turnover days increased slightly to 54 days, while accounts receivable turnover days were at 143 days, reflecting stable operational management [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1.804 billion yuan, 2.075 billion yuan, and 2.361 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.81, 9.39, and 8.26 [5] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory, driven by its strategic investments in smart factories and global production capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in the face of geopolitical and economic fragmentation, leveraging its integrated product lines, global layout, and smart manufacturing to enhance customer acquisition and international development [2][4]. - Despite a decline in net profit due to strategic equity disposals and employee stock plan expenses, the company achieved record revenue in 2024, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [2][3]. - The company has a high cash dividend payout ratio of 60%, reflecting strong operational confidence [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.42%, and a net profit of 241 million yuan, up 10.26% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 17.157 billion yuan, a 12.71% increase year-on-year, while net profit slightly decreased by 2.05% to 1.409 billion yuan [1][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 24.80%, down 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 8.21%, down 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1][10]. Product Segment Performance - Revenue from premium paper packaging reached 12.418 billion yuan, a 12.52% increase year-on-year, while the gross margin was 25.82% [3]. - The environmental paper-plastic products segment saw revenue growth of 19.45% year-on-year, totaling 1.271 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.98% [3]. - The company is recognized as one of the largest premium paper packaging manufacturers globally, maintaining a leading position in the consumer electronics and smart hardware sectors [3]. Geographic Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue for 2024 was 12.059 billion yuan, a 4.90% increase year-on-year, while international revenue surged by 36.81% to 5.097 billion yuan [4]. - The company has expanded its overseas operations, with production facilities in over 10 countries and more than 100 subsidiaries [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.690 billion yuan, 1.949 billion yuan, and 2.213 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 宝钢包装（601968） 证券研究报告 优化国内外布局，推动转型发展 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 20 亿同增 1%，归母净利 0.57 亿同增 3%，扣非后归母净利 0.57 亿同增 9%； 24 年营收 83 亿同增 7%，归母净利 1.7 亿同减 21%，扣非后归母净利 1.7 亿同减 23%。 24 年境内收入 59 亿同增 1%，毛利率 5.6%同减 2.5pct；境外收入 24 亿同 增 26%，毛利率 14%同增 3pct。 24 年毛利率 8%，净利率 2%。 风险提示：项目进度不及预期；行业竞争加剧；下游需求不及预期。 公司坚持"四化"发展方向和"四有"原则，积极推进宝钢包装规划发展 目标与"内外联动"战略任务落实；坚持创新驱动，有效推动产品高端化 多样化；坚持绿色低碳发展，实现国内法人子公司"绿色工厂"全覆盖； 坚持数字化转型，形成行业内最佳数字化底座和实践案例；加快国内产能 调整优化和国际化发展步伐。首次实施股份回购、首次开展中期分红、成 功实施非公开发行 A 股股票，上市公司资本运作取得新的突破。 优化国内外布局，推动转型发展 公司进一步加快国 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in its main business, with significant achievements in overseas expansion [3] - The revenue for 2024 reached 17.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.409 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.05% [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling an expected cash dividend distribution of 546 million yuan [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from paper packaging reached 16.015 billion yuan, up 8.10% year-on-year, contributing 93.35% to total revenue [3] - The company's overseas revenue grew by 36.81% to 5.097 billion yuan, accounting for 29.71% of total revenue [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 24.80%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.46%, down 1.36 percentage points [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company maintained stable profitability in its paper packaging business, with a gross margin of 25.62% [4] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.980 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.10% year-on-year [2] - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 13.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company is the largest producer of premium boxes globally, with a strong presence in the consumer electronics, high-end liquor, and tobacco industries [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 19.123 billion, 21.204 billion, and 23.479 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.83, 2.10, and 2.32 yuan [6][8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a projected PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.157 billion (up 12.71% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.409 billion (down 2.05%) for 2024 [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed stable operations with a revenue of 3.699 billion (up 6.42%) and a net profit of 241 million (up 10.26%) [1] - The company is expected to recover profits in 2025, with projected revenues of 18.917 billion (up 10.26%) and net profits of 1.684 billion (up 19.56%) [11] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.157 billion and a net profit of 1.409 billion, with a gross margin of 24.80% [1][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.898 billion, but a significant drop in net profit to 294 million, primarily due to strategic asset disposals and employee stock plan costs [1] Business Segments - The 3C business remains solid, with a stable revenue contribution from major clients, accounting for 38.26% of total revenue [2] - The company has successfully upgraded its tobacco packaging business and is expanding its global footprint [2][3] Environmental Initiatives - Revenue from eco-friendly packaging reached 1.271 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 19.45% [3] - The company is actively involved in sustainable packaging initiatives and has received industry recognition for its innovations [3] Financial Metrics - The company’s expense ratio decreased by 0.43 percentage points in 2024, attributed to lower loan rates and increased foreign exchange gains [5] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 1.81, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.54 [11][13] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a growth trajectory with projected revenues of 20.825 billion in 2026 and 22.939 billion in 2027, alongside net profits of 1.867 billion and 2.079 billion respectively [11][13] - The company is enhancing its global supply chain capabilities with new smart factories in both domestic and overseas markets [4]

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2025年一季报 | 2024年一季报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2023年一季报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | -0.0151 | -0.0075 | -101.33 | -0.0185 | | 每股净资产（元） | 0.16 | 0.25 | -36 | 0.29 | | 每股公积金(元) | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0 | 0.22 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | -1.44 | -1.34 | -7.46 | -1.30 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 2.38 | 2.36 | 0.85 | 2.79 | | 净利润(亿元) | -0.19 | -0.1 | -90 | -0.24 | | 净资产收益率(%) | -9.10 | -3.00 | -203.33 | -6.09 | 数据四舍五入，查看更多财务数据>> 二、前10名无限售条件股东持股情况 前十大流通股东累计持有： 27056.99万股，累计占流通股比： 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 29.28 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17.157 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.409 billion RMB, down 2.1% year-on-year, which was below previous expectations due to strategic disposals and employee stock plan costs [1][4]. - The company's revenue growth is driven by the recovery in demand from downstream electronic consumer sectors, particularly in the premium paper packaging segment [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on investor returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 60.22% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to high dividends [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from premium paper packaging was 12.42 billion RMB, up 12.5% year-on-year, while revenue from packaging supporting products decreased by 4.4% to 2.5 billion RMB. The environmental paper-plastic products saw a significant increase of 19.5% to 1.27 billion RMB [2]. - Domestic revenue reached 12.06 billion RMB, growing by 4.9%, while international revenue surged by 36.8% to 5.1 billion RMB, benefiting from the establishment of production facilities in the Philippines and Mexico [2]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 24.8%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in business structure. The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 13.44% [3]. - The financial expense ratio improved, decreasing by 0.37 percentage points to -0.19%, attributed to lower loan interest rates and increased foreign exchange gains [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates net profits of 1.707 billion RMB, 1.957 billion RMB, and 2.222 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.83 RMB, 2.10 RMB, and 2.39 RMB [4][6]. - The target price is set at 29.28 RMB based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's ongoing globalization and intelligent manufacturing strategies [4].