交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2026年1月PVC产量为214.863万吨，环比增加0.53%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为82.08%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.157万吨，环比减少0.32%,乙烯法企业产 量15.096万吨，环比增加0.80%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为26.43%，环比增加6.43个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游 糊树脂开工率为79.51%，环比增加0.200个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口 价格价格不占优势；当前需求或持续低迷。 成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The price of hexamethylenediamine (HMD) has been on the rise, with a significant increase in demand and pricing due to tight supply and rising raw material costs. The price dropped to a low of 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025 but has since increased to 18,200 RMB/ton in early 2026, marking a cumulative increase of 1,100 RMB [2][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the chemical industry, with a focus on the price increases of chemical products leading to profit elasticity. The company has a diverse chemical portfolio, including products like adiponitrile and caprolactam, which are anticipated to contribute positively to earnings in 2026 [11]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 403.66 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10%. This growth in orders is expected to support stable earnings growth, with a projected double-digit growth rate for the year [11]. - The asset quality of the company is significantly undervalued, with approximately 80% of new contracts coming from chemical engineering projects with reputable clients. The company has a strong cash position, with 38 billion RMB in cash and a net cash position of 21 billion RMB, indicating a low valuation at 0.9x PB [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Trends - HMD prices peaked at 26,500 RMB/ton in April 2024, followed by a decline to 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025. Starting January 2026, prices began to rise again, with three consecutive increases leading to a price of 18,200 RMB/ton [5][11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 254.6 billion RMB in 2026, with a gross profit margin of approximately 10% [14]. - The net profit for 2026 is expected to reach 7.8 billion RMB, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.28 RMB [14]. Market Position - The company has a strong market position with a diverse portfolio in the chemical sector, including significant production capacities for various chemical products. The anticipated recovery in the chemical industry is expected to enhance profitability [11].

Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: High Inventory Persists, Weak and Sideways Movement [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This month, PVC saw a rise followed by a fall. In March, the high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market is expected to be weak and sideways. The supply side is under pressure, and external demand's "rush to export" effect is weakening [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: In February, PVC opened low at 5040, then rose and led the chemical sector, reaching a four - month high of 5178 on February 4, a 10% increase from the previous low. After that, it fell back with the overall commodity market. After the holiday, due to continuous decline in calcium carbide prices and weakening export orders, the high inventory and weak cost led to the price dropping to the monthly low of 4758, with an amplitude of 400 points [3][9] - **Funds**: As of Thursday this week, the main contract's open interest was 1.22 million lots, at a high level for the same period [12] - **Basis**: As of Thursday this week, the V05 basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and industrial customers could consider selling hedging on price rallies [15] - **Calendar Spread**: As of Thursday this week, the V5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton. The "rush to export" effect weakened before the holiday, and social inventory hit new highs, causing the 5 - 9 spread to fall again [18] - **Valuation**: As of Thursday this week, the northwest chlor - alkali integration profit was 1092 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period; Shandong's chlor - alkali integration profit was - 722 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period. Recently, caustic soda spot prices rebounded from low levels. In February 2026, Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia's western industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (up 0.01 month - on - month), rising for two consecutive months [21][24] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: This week, PVC production reached 500,000 tons, a new high for the year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In March, only Jiyuan Fangsheng, Qilu Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Tosoh plan to shut down a total of 640,000 tons of production facilities, and supply is expected to remain under pressure [26] - **Domestic Demand - Real Estate**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate new construction/construction/completion/sales area were - 20.4%/ - 10.0%/ - 18.1%/ - 8.7% respectively. The sales area decline has widened for 8 consecutive months. Real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year changes in the price indices of newly built commercial residential buildings and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively. The month - on - month changes were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively, with continuous month - on - month declines [31][34] - **External Demand**: The Asian market price remained firm. China plans to cancel export tax rebates on April 1, and the "rush to export" drove up Asian prices. As of now, CIF India is at $720/ton, and CFR China Main Port is at $720/ton. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). This week, PVC producers' export orders increased by 2.75% from before the holiday, reaching 19,200 tons, and the cumulative undelivered orders remained around 224,000 tons. Overall orders have significantly declined from the previous high [37][41] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, PVC enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.85 million tons (a 290,000 - ton increase from before the holiday), rising for 9 consecutive weeks. The large - sample social inventory was 1.35 million tons, and it is expected to remain stable by the end of March according to seasonal patterns [44][47] 3. Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Weak and sideways. Pay attention to the V2605 contract in the range of 4600 - 5000 yuan/ton [6] - **Hedging**: The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial customers can sell on price rallies [6] - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage opportunities are currently available [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the chemical industry, particularly in the context of rising prices and inflation trends, which are expected to become a significant theme in the near future [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation and Price Increases**: - Inflation expectations are rising, with price increases observed in sectors like electronic fabrics and chemicals, suggesting a shift from passive destocking to active restocking in certain products [1][2]. - The chemical sector is positioned favorably as many products have experienced a downturn over the past four years, and price and stock levels are now advantageous [2]. 2. **Wanhua Chemical's Performance**: - Wanhua Chemical is projected to achieve a revenue of 16 billion in 2026, primarily driven by improvements in petrochemical and new energy materials [1][5]. - MDI/TDI price sensitivity is high; a price increase of 1,000 RMB per ton could enhance profits by 3.4 billion RMB [5][6]. 3. **Sweetener Industry Dynamics**: - The sweetener market, particularly for aspartame and sucralose, shows a strong competitive landscape with significant pricing power. If aspartame prices exceed 30,000 RMB, profits could increase by over 300 million RMB [1][7]. 4. **Pesticide Sector Positioning**: - The pesticide sector is currently at a low point, with potential price increases driven by U.S. policies aimed at ensuring supply. The market needs to observe whether these expectations materialize [1][8]. 5. **Phosphate Industry Outlook**: - The phosphate industry is experiencing high demand, particularly for domestic use, with strict export controls in place. The focus remains on domestic operations, with potential changes in export policies to be monitored post-spring farming [1][9]. 6. **Yellow Phosphorus Supply and Demand**: - Yellow phosphorus demand is primarily in non-replaceable applications, with supply constraints due to carbon neutrality policies. Price support is expected from high sulfur prices [1][10]. 7. **Urea and Potash Fertilizer Trends**: - Urea prices have seen an uptick due to strong downstream demand, while potash fertilizer remains stable, with key observations needed post-spring farming [1][11]. 8. **Silicone Supply Dynamics**: - The silicone industry is expected to see no new capacity in 2026, with overseas supply constraints providing a favorable environment for price increases [1][12]. 9. **Titanium Dioxide and PVC Market Changes**: - Titanium dioxide prices are at historical lows, with recent price increases announced. PVC may experience export demand spikes due to policy changes [1][13][14]. 10. **Acrylic Fiber and PTA Market Insights**: - The acrylic fiber market is anticipated to improve due to demand recovery, while PTA prices have seen slight increases, with a focus on companies with integrated supply chains [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - The chemical sector is advised to focus on five main investment directions: "Davis Double Play" opportunities, resource-related stocks, leading companies in traditional cycles, products nearing inflection points, and those under significant pressure but with potential for recovery [1][4]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical industry is cautiously optimistic, with several sectors poised for recovery and price increases, driven by both domestic and international factors [1][2][4].

Summary of Wanhua Chemical Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry in China holds a significant global position, accounting for approximately 46% of global chemical shipment value [2][4] - The industry is expected to experience a recovery trend characterized by "bottom recovery - uplift - high-level stabilization" due to strengthened domestic supply control and lack of overseas competitors [2][4] Company Insights - Wanhua Chemical's stock price has seen relatively modest increases compared to other blue-chip companies, indicating higher investment value [2][5] - The company's profit base of approximately 12 billion yuan is primarily derived from its MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) business, with a production capacity of about 3.8 million tons and sales volume of around 3 million tons, yielding a profit of approximately 4,000 yuan per ton [2][5] - The demand for MDI is expected to grow due to improvements in the U.S. real estate market and the normalization of global MDI trade [2][6] MDI and TDI Market Dynamics - MDI and TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) prices are anticipated to trend upwards, supported by Wanhua's large production scale and the potential for significant earnings elasticity [2][6] - The company has strict control over new TDI capacity, and with competitors like Covestro facing production halts, TDI prices have a solid foundation for reversal [2][6] Petrochemical Sector - Wanhua's petrochemical segment has a relatively short history, with profitability improvements expected from access to cheap ethane resources in the U.S. [2][7] - The company has secured U.S. ethane resources, which are projected to contribute an additional 1-2 billion yuan to the petrochemical segment's bottom line by 2026 [2][7] New Materials Business - The new materials segment includes products in renewable energy, functional chemicals, and PC (Polycarbonate), with stable profit contributions from HDI [3][8] - Recent expansions in vitamin and flavoring businesses have shown significant revenue growth, indicating potential for further profitability [3][8] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Expansion - Wanhua is expanding its lithium iron phosphate capacity, with plans to reach 1.02 million tons by the end of 2025 and potentially 3 million tons in the future [3][9] - The demand for LFP is expected to surge due to the explosive growth in energy storage needs, presenting significant opportunities for market reversal [3][9] Valuation and Market Outlook - Current product price differentials are at historical lows of approximately 20%-30%, with potential for recovery to around 50% [3][10] - If the market conditions improve, the estimated PE ratio for related companies could drop below 10 times, indicating no valuation bubble despite recent stock price increases [3][10] - The chemical sector is poised for continued upward momentum, driven by new industry logic and a clearer trend of recovery [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sectors of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal [13]. Core Insights - The report indicates that under the backdrop of stable demand and constrained supply, industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and coal are expected to experience price increases [12][18]. - The macroeconomic environment, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints in the industry are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals [2][12]. - The report highlights specific companies to focus on, including China Railway Group, China National Chemical Corporation, and Honglu Steel Structure, due to their potential for significant growth and valuation re-evaluation [3][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes that the liquidity cycle, geopolitical trade changes, and fundamental constraints are driving price increases in non-ferrous metals. The expected evolution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 provides a liquidity foundation for commodities [2][12]. - China Railway Group is recommended as an undervalued leader in the non-ferrous sector, with significant resource reserves and a projected net profit of 55 billion yuan from resource operations by 2026 [3][21]. Chemicals - The chemical sector is expected to see price increases due to global geopolitical conflicts, improved supply-demand dynamics, and anti-involution policies. China National Chemical Corporation is highlighted for its production capacities and potential profit increases from price rebounds in its products [4][30]. - The report notes that the price of caprolactam has rebounded significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [7][30]. Steel - The steel industry is in a weak balance of supply and demand, with expectations for price increases due to anti-involution policies and a clearer control on supply. Honglu Steel Structure is identified as a key beneficiary of rising steel prices, with a projected 30% increase in steel structure production by 2026 [8][35]. - The report suggests that the company's profitability will improve as steel prices rise, with a target market value of approximately 200 billion yuan by 2026 [35]. Coal - The coal sector is expected to benefit from rising prices due to supply constraints and regulatory measures. North International is highlighted for its significant earnings elasticity in response to coal price increases, with a projected PE ratio of 13x for 2026 [10][38]. - The report indicates that the company's coal trading volume is expected to recover as prices stabilize, contributing positively to overall performance [11][38].

天眼查显示，近日，江阴澄港盛合化工有限公司成立，法定代表人为包建章，注册资本3000万人民币， 由江阴临港化工园区投资管理有限公司全资持股。 经营范围含许可项目：道路货物运输（不含危险货物）（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可 开展经营活动，具体经营项目以审批结果为准）化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品）；专用化学产品 销售（不含危险化学品）；润滑油销售；石油制品销售（不含危险化学品）；煤炭及制品销售；普通货 物仓储服务（不含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；信息咨询服务（不含许可类信息咨询服务）；社 会经济咨询服务；国内货物运输代理；住房租赁；非居住房地产租赁；小微型客车租赁经营服务；建筑 工程机械与设备租赁；运输设备租赁服务；租赁服务（不含许可类租赁服务）；货物进出口；技术进出 口；进出口代理；化肥销售；肥料销售（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动） 企业名称江阴澄港盛合化工有限公司法定代表人包建章注册资本3000万人民币国标行业制造业>化学原 料和化学制品制造业>基础化学原料制造地址江阴市璜土镇澄路3808-4号212室企业类型有限责任公司 （非自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营业期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel industry is gradually resuming operations after the Spring Festival, with ethylene glycol's market performance closely tied to the recovery pace of downstream sectors. The market has experienced significant inventory accumulation due to seasonal factors, leading to downward pressure on spot prices. However, post-holiday recovery in downstream polyester and terminal sectors, along with increased maintenance in ethylene glycol production, suggests a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with optimistic long-term expectations. Nonetheless, the full recovery of terminal weaving, dyeing, and home textile sectors remains uncertain, necessitating further validation of demand rebound sustainability, as the market is currently in a phase of contention between bullish and bearish sentiments [3][12]. Inventory and Price Dynamics - Prior to the Spring Festival, ethylene glycol port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 790,500 tons by February 12, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to the end of 2025. The commissioning of new production facilities in Ningxia and BASF also contributed to concentrated supply increments. The logistics disruptions during the holiday exacerbated inventory pressure, suppressing spot prices, which fell to approximately 3,585 yuan/ton [4][14]. - By February 26, the port inventory further increased to 861,500 tons, up 71,000 tons from February 12, indicating persistent near-term supply pressure despite a slight reduction in actual port arrivals during the holiday [4][14]. Demand Recovery and Supply Adjustments - Following the holiday, ethylene glycol demand began to recover as downstream sectors gradually resumed operations. By February 27, the polyester industry's operating rate rose to 77.41%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the lowest point during the holiday, indicating a gradual release of essential procurement volumes for ethylene glycol [5][15]. - In March, planned maintenance of several ethylene glycol facilities is expected to alleviate supply pressure, with significant reductions anticipated. This, combined with the recovery in downstream demand, is likely to create a noticeable disparity, improving the supply-demand balance for ethylene glycol [7][17]. Future Outlook - Entering the second quarter, the scale of ethylene glycol maintenance is expected to expand, supported by the peak season for textiles and apparel, which will likely enhance inventory reduction. The static supply-demand balance suggests potential for price rebounds in the ethylene glycol market [7][17]. - However, it is crucial to monitor the recovery of downstream demand, as the return of frontline production staff is still ongoing, and the resumption of weaving, dyeing, and apparel sectors is relatively slower compared to previous years. The sustainability of demand recovery remains to be observed [10][20].

Summary of the Conference Call for WanHua Chemical Industry Overview - The focus is on the chemical industry, specifically the isocyanate market, which includes MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) and TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) products Key Points 1. **Profit Forecast for 2025**: The company is expected to reach a net profit of approximately 12-12.5 billion yuan in 2025, which is considered the long-term bottom profit level. The profit forecast for 2026 is projected to be 16 billion yuan, driven by improvements in petrochemicals and a turnaround in new energy sectors [1][2][3] 2. **Price Elasticity of XDI**: The company has a sales volume of over 4 million tons of MDI and TDI. For every increase of 1,000 yuan per ton in XDI prices, the profit elasticity is expected to increase by 3.4 billion yuan [1][2][3] 3. **Current Pricing of MDI and TDI**: The current price of polymer MDI is 14,200 yuan per ton, which is at the 12th percentile of the price range over the past three years (2022-2025 price range: 13,625-18,600 yuan per ton). The current price of TDI is 14,613 yuan per ton, positioned at the 26th percentile of the same three-year price range (2022-2025 price range: 10,281-26,500 yuan per ton) [1][2][3] Additional Important Information - The analysis indicates a strong recommendation for WanHua Chemical, with a target market value set at 400 billion yuan, suggesting a bullish outlook on the company's future performance in the chemical sector [1][2][3]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the "Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development for 2025," highlighting various industrial growth rates [1] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry saw an increase in value added by 5.6% compared to the previous year [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry experienced significant growth of 11.5%, while the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector grew by 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The cement production in China reached 1.69 billion tons in 2025, marking a decline of 6.9% year-on-year [1][3] - The textile industry reported a growth of 3.0%, while the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 7.8% [1] - The production of new energy vehicles surged by 25.1%, indicating a strong trend towards sustainable transportation [3]